Tottenham host FC Copenhagen at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday night in the Champions League, with both sides looking to strengthen their position in the group.
Spurs remain unbeaten in this season’s competition (W1 D2), but their performances have been mixed, reflected in their xPTS of 2.4 and a negative xGD of -2.6. Despite strong domestic form, their European displays have lacked the same control, with 5.5 xGA across the first three matches suggesting defensive vulnerability.
Thomas Frank’s side have, however, been formidable at home in Europe. They are unbeaten in their last 21 UEFA home games (W17 D4) and have kept four clean sheets in their last six European fixtures.
Historically, Tottenham’s only previous meeting with a Danish team ended in a 3-2 win over AaB back in 2007/08, and that record sets the tone here as they are expected to take command in front of their own fans.
Copenhagen arrive fourth in the Danish Superliga, trailing leaders AGF and Midtjylland after W7-D34-L3 in 14 matches. In Europe, they have collected just one point from three games (xPTS 3.2) and scored only three goals while conceding almost five xGA.
Their long-term continental record remains poor with only two wins in their last 21 away matches in the Champions League, and they have never beaten an English club away from home (D2 L7).
The contrast in quality and experience is striking. Tottenham’s superior squad depth, home record, and control should give them the edge, especially against a Copenhagen side that has often struggled to sustain pressure against top-tier opposition.
With Spurs chasing qualification, this fixture looks tailor-made for them to secure a professional, confidence-building win in front of their home crowd.
How the bookies view it: Spurs are heavy favourites
Tottenham are heavy favourites at 19/50, which implies a 72.5% chance of victory. The draw at 17/4 carries an implied probability of 19%, while FC Copenhagen’s long odds of 8/1 suggest just a 11% chance of an upset.
The goals markets also point toward an open contest, with over 2.5 goals priced at 4/6 (implied 60%) and both teams to score trading at 19/20 (implied 51%). Those numbers align with expectations of Tottenham controlling the game but still allowing chances, given their recent European record of 5.5 xGA across three matches and Copenhagen’s occasional ability to test opponents on the counter.
Head to Head: First Meeting
First meeting between these two sides in a competitive match.
Players to watch: Lerager likely to commit fouls
Lukas Lerager looks a strong option for two or more fouls when Copenhagen visit Tottenham. He has committed 10 fouls in five Champions League matches, making at least one in four and two or more in three of them. That reflects both his aggressive defensive role and how much time Copenhagen spend without the ball in this competition.
Playing as a central midfielder or holding player, Lerager is heavily involved in breaking up play and pressing opponents in transition. Against higher-quality opposition like Dortmund and Leverkusen, he averaged nearly two fouls per game, showing that he is willing to take tactical bookings to stop counters.
This matchup looks even more demanding. Tottenham’s midfield trio of Rodrigo Bentancur, 1matar Pape Sarr and Mohammed Kudus all carry the ball well through central areas and draw plenty of contact. With Spurs expected to dominate possession and territory given they are strong favourites at home and Copenhagen average under 40% possession in Europe this should means that Lerager should again be at the heart of Copenhagen’s defensive effort.
His combination of workload, position, and track record make Lerager 2+ fouls a statistically solid selection.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence, Palhinha, Bentancur, Kudus, Sarr, Bergvall, Kolo Muani.
FC Copenhagen (4-4-2): Kotarski, Suzuki, Hatzidiakos, Garananga, Lopez, Robert, Lerager, Claesson, Achouri, Elyounoussi, Moukoko.
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Tottenham to win and under 4.5 goals stands out as the most logical play for Tuesday’s Champions League clash. Spurs are heavy favourites at home, but their European fixtures under Thomas Frank have tended to be tight, controlled affairs rather than high-scoring.
The numbers support that pattern as across their first three group matches, they have produced just 2.9 xG for and conceded 5.5, highlighting both a cautious attacking setup and periods of defensive pressure.
At home, though, Tottenham have been reliable. They are unbeaten in 21 UEFA home games (W17 D4), a record built on defensive discipline with four clean sheets in their last six European fixtures. Spurs’ expected process may be modest, but their control of possession and game state under Frank, particularly in London, has been impressive.
Copenhagen, by contrast, have struggled badly away in this competition. They have won just two of their last 21 Champions League away games. This season, their xPTS of 3.2 and xGD of -1.1 reflect a side creating little and surviving mainly through defensive resistance. They have generated only around 1.2 xG per match, and that lack of cutting edge is unlikely to improve against a Premier League defence.
Given Tottenham’s style and Copenhagen’s limitations, this sets up as a game that Spurs should control without the need for a heavy scoreline. Copenhagen’s matches in this competition rarely become high-scoring as they have gone under 4.5 goals in 12 of their last 15 group-stage outings.
A professional home win, likely by one or two goals, aligns perfectly with both teams’ data profiles. The safest and best-value angle is Tottenham to win and under 4.5 total goals which is a bet that covers the expected score lines of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 or 3-1.
Tottenham Hotspur vs FC Copenhagen Betting Tips & Predictions
Further Reading