Injuries should tip the balance in the Magpies’ favour as in-form Newcastle United travel to London to take on Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday lunchtime (UK time).
The hosts have a stack of injuries, meaning that manager Ange Postecoglou will struggle to put out a side that will be as competitive as he would like against one of the division’s most dangerous outfits right now.
Newcastle are six places and eight points ahead of Tottenham in the Premier League standings, and much of that is down to Tottenham's dip in form that has coincided with their recent high number of injuries.
With their defence particularly affected, Spurs have been more vulnerable than usual in many of their outings over the past month. Allied to their positive and occasionally risky style of play, they have conceded far more chances in recent games than many of their supporters would be comfortable with.
The form tables tell a story of two sides on different trajectories: Tottenham have picked up just four points from their last five fixtures (W1-D1-L3) and lost five of their last 10 league games as well (W3-D2-L5).
In contrast, Eddie Howe’s visitors are second only to Nottingham Forest in the five-game Premier League form table (W4-D0-L1), and they rank a creditable fourth in the 10-game form table as well (W6-D2-L2).
It says everything about how the two sides’ performances have diverged that Newcastle are clear favourites to win despite being the away side. They are 2.3 (13/10) to collect all three points, while Tottenham are 3.05 (41/20) and the Draw is 4.0 (3/1).
Best Bet
If you are looking for a selection in the Match Odds market, Newcastle would be the smart choice. As outlined above, the visitors on a run of four wins from their last five matches, and that streak of good form includes impressive away victories to nil vs Manchester United (2-0) and Ipswich Town (4-0).
Despite their considerable injury woes, however, we are not prepared to write off Tottenham just yet. For that reason, we prefer other ways of supporting the visitors.
Draw No Bet the Smart Selection
For those of you that, like us, are concerned that an injury-depleted Tottenham may be a wounded but still-dangerous beast, the Draw No Bet market offers a better way to support the in-form visitors on their trip to North London.
The Draw No Bet market does exactly what it says: if you back a team on this market rather than on the Match Odds market, your bet is effectively a ‘no bet’ – i.e. your stakes will be returned – in the event of the game ending in a draw. In other words, you will lose your stakes only if your side loses, rather than if your side loses or if the game ends in a draw.
Naturally, the odds are shorter on Newcastle in the Draw No Bet market than in the Match Odds market, because you have the safety net of having your stakes returned if the game ends in a stalemate.
We prefer this market, however, as we believe Tottenham may well pose a bigger threat than the market expects in this fixture. During their recent injury-hit run, their home form has remained reasonable rather than poor: they drew 2-2 against an upbeat Wolves in their last home fixture, and only narrowly lost at home to Chelsea (3-4) in that dramatic all-London encounter on December 8. In between those two fixtures, they made it through to the EFL Cup semi-finals thanks to their 4-3 home win over Manchester United.
They may have lost 6-3 at home to Liverpool on December 22, but Arne Slot’s Reds are such an outlier at the top of the division at the moment that this particularly heavy defeat has little bearing on Tottenham’s chances of getting something from this encounter against in-form but more limited visitors.
Leave that loss to Liverpool out of your calculations, and Tottenham’s five-game home form across all competitions is W1-D3-L1, showing that, even with a reduced squad available, they remain difficult to beat in front of their own fans.
Best Bet
At the time of writing, Newcastle on the Draw No Bet market is available at a best-priced 1.73 (8/11). That may be too short for some bettors, but we prefer this more conservative selection to backing Newcastle in the Match Odds market.
Top selection – Newcastle United Draw No Bet (1.73)
Unstoppable Isak the Man to Follow
Newcastle are in tremendous form in front of goal, scoring 21 times in seven matches in all competitions since the start of December. Given those figures, naturally their players will attract more interest than Tottenham's in the Anytime Goalscorer market.
The breakdown of players that have scored for the Magpies during their current hot streak in front of goal is as follows: Alexander Isak (eight), Jacob Murphy (three), Anthony Gordon, Joelinton, Fabian Schar, Sandro Tonali (two each), Harvey Barnes and Bruno Guimaraes (one each).
As our table of the latest Anytime Goalscorer odds shows, unsurprisingly, Isak is the runaway favourite in the market. Significantly, five of the eight goals he has netted across Newcastle's last seven matches were scored away from home.
Best Bet
His odds may be short, but the Sweden international is still the player to focus on. He has developed into the dominant figure in the Magpies' attack, and has shown he can score against virtually any opponents, home or away.
No other Newcastle player currently has a track record of finding the net that is strong enough to make them worth supporting.