Tottenham Hotspur are in trouble. How much trouble is open to debate, but there’s no denying this season has been a disappointing one for the north London club. So disappointing, in fact, that some are now questioning if it could end in relegation.
There were mitigating circumstances — such as Cristian Romero’s second red card in 10 matches — behind Saturday’s defeat to Manchester United. Nonetheless, this extended Tottenham’s recent run of dismal form and dropped them closer to the bottom three.
Thomas Frank’s team have won just two of their last 16 league games, stretching back to October. They are just six points above West Ham in 18th place, who are showing signs of a resurgence.
Of course, Spurs finished 17th last season, just one place above the relegation zone. However, Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City were so historically bad that it never felt likely Tottenham would suffer the drop.
This season, though, the competition is stiffer. While Wolves and Burnley are as good as gone, just six points separate West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United and Spurs.
At 2/5, the Hammers are still priced as the most likely of this group to go down. Forest are priced at 10/3, reflecting the form of a team that has lost five of their last nine Premier League fixtures.
Last Friday’s win over Forest at Elland Road boosted Leeds’ hopes of staying up, but their price of 17/2 still reflects a team fighting for Premier League survival.
Tottenham’s price of 10/1 suggests they should have enough in the tank to accelerate away from danger, but this hasn’t happened yet. In fact, Frank’s side are being caught by some of the teams below them.
At their current pace (1.16 points per game), Spurs are on course to finish the season on 44 points. Never before in Premier League history has a team with such a high tally been relegated.
The problem for Tottenham is that 58.6 per cent of their total points so far came across the first nine fixtures of the season. Since then, they have averaged just 0.75 per game. At this pace, Spurs will finish on 38 points (38.75, to be exact).
Historically, the survival rate for teams that finish on 38 points or more stands at 80 per cent. That percentage rises to 90 per cent for teams with 40 points or more.
Several underlying metrics suggest Tottenham deserve to be fighting relegation this season.
Frank’s team are ranked only 17th for expected goals (xG) with only Wolves, Sunderland and Burnley ranked lower. Spurs are also ranked 13th for ‘big chances’ created over the course of the season and touches inside the opposition box.
Injuries have been a major factor in these struggles. Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison have missed the entire season, while Dominic Solanke has only recently returned to full fitness.
Destiny Udogie’s injury against Manchester United means Spurs are currently without 12 senior squad figures. Conor Gallagher arrived in January to bolster the squad, but this wasn’t enough to plug the gaps in Frank’s line-up.
Only two teams (Arsenal and Manchester United) have scored more set-piece goals than Tottenham this season. This is something Frank has been able to carry over from his time as Brentford boss. The Bees were a menace from corner kicks under the Dane.
From open play, though, Spurs have been seriously lacking, averaging just 10.9 shots per game, ranking them behind relegation rivals Crystal Palace, Forest and Leeds.
Romero and Micky van de Ven are Tottenham’s joint-second top scorers in the league this term. Both of them are centre-backs, and Romero is now suspended for the next four games following his red card at Old Trafford.
Were it not for their respectable away record, Tottenham Hotspur would be in even deeper trouble, with the north London outfit losing just four of the 13 games they have played on the road this season.
At home, Spurs have won just twice all season and have kept just two clean sheets in 12 games. It’s little wonder booing has become part of the matchday experience at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Newcastle United and Arsenal could add to Tottenham’s troubles at home in the only two fixtures they have left in February.
Tottenham’s Champions League form has afforded Frank and his players some much-needed respite this season, but their Premier League showings are a huge cause for concern.
European success wasn’t enough to keep Ange Postecoglou in a job last summer, and many supporters have already made up their minds that Frank isn’t the man to take the club forward.
This sense of malaise will deepen further if Spurs get any closer to the bottom three. Six points is a reasonable cushion, but it’s still far too close for comfort.