Having endured terrible domestic seasons, Tottenham and Manchester United face off for European silverware and UEFA Champions League qualification. We look ahead to Wednesday’s huge game with our UEFA Europa League final prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Manchester United: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is struggling to split Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, making Spurs slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%).
Spurs have already beaten Man Utd three times in all competitions this season. The only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single campaign were Everton in 1985-86.
Ruben Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of Man Utd, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).
A mid-May meeting between the sides sat 16th and 17th in the Premier League table does not usually arouse much interest.
But Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final at San Mamés, Bilbao, has taken on extraordinary importance for both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.
Having not lifted a trophy of any kind since Juande Ramos oversaw their victory over Chelsea in the 2008 EFL Cup final, Spurs are desperate for silverware.
Ange Postecoglou has cut a thorny figure for much of the season and his future remains far from certain, but ending Tottenham’s drought would make it all worthwhile for the Australian, who told reporters in September: “I always win things in my second year.”
Ruben Amorim has been less bullish, describing his United team as the worst side in the club’s storied history.
Wednesday’s victors will seal UEFA Champions League qualification for 2025-26, with the financial rewards giving Amorim the chance to turbo-boost his United rebuild.
The losers will be left to face the uncomfortable reality of having endured their worst campaign in modern history.
This will be the sixth all-English final in the history of UEFA club competitions, with no other country providing as many finals between two of their clubs (Italy and Spain have had five apiece).
It will be the third of those to involve Tottenham, who beat Wolves 3-2 on aggregate in the 1972 UEFA Cup final and lost 2-0 to Liverpool in the 2019 Champions League showpiece.
And since the Europa League’s 2009 rebrand, this will be the fourth final to be contested between two sides from the same nation, after 2011 (Porto 1-0 Braga), 2012 (Atlético Madrid 3-0 Athletic Club) and 2019 (Chelsea 4-1 Arsenal).
Victory here would make them just the second English club to win the UEFA Cup/Europa League three times, after Liverpool, with only Sevilla (seven) winning it more than three times.
However, they will have to overcome a host of injury problems if they are to end their long wait for glory, having lost creative midfielders Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall. Kulusevski (11) and Maddison (10) are two of three Spurs players in double figures for assists in all competitions this season, along with Son Heung-min (11).
Son has provided Postecoglou with a boost, at least, having made his first start since recovering from a foot injury in Friday’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa.
Son has 11 goals in all competitions this campaign, with only Brennan Johnson (17), Dominic Solanke (15) and Maddison (12) netting more often for Spurs. Many of Solanke’s best moments have come in this competition, having scored the winning penalty in the quarter-finals versus Eintracht Frankfurt and in both legs of their semi-final against Bodø/Glimt.
Solanke has also scored in each of his last four games against United in all competitions (five goals). Since Sir Alex Ferguson left the Red Devils in 2013, only one player has scored in five or more consecutive appearances against them, with Mohamed Salah doing so in six from January 2021 to March 2023.
Much of the focus in the build-up to this final has been on Postecoglou, the first Australian manager to reach a major European final.
The last time a new nation had a manager reach a major European final for the first time was when Norwegian Ole Gunnar Solskjær lost the 2021 Europa League final with United, versus Villarreal.
In contrast to their drab league form, United have had a thrilling route to the final, with their stunning 7-6 aggregate win over Lyon in the quarter-finals a particular highlight.
The Red Devils have scored 35 goals in this season’s Europa League; the only sides to score more in a single UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign are Borussia Mönchengladbach in 1972-73 (36), Porto in 2010-11 (37) and Chelsea in 2018-19 (36) – the latter duo won the trophy.
United also remain the only unbeaten side in major European competitions this season, winning nine and drawing five of their 14 Europa League games.
Head coach Amorim has repeatedly said that lifting the trophy will not solve United’s long-term issues, but he may need the credit that a victory would give him, having managed just 0.92 points per game in the Premier League since taking charge.
Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of United, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).
Forty-year-old Amorim also could become only the third manager to win a major European title with an English club while aged 40 or younger, after Howard Kendall (1984-85 Cup Winners’ Cup with Everton, 38) and Gianluca Vialli (1997-98 Cup Winners’ Cup with Chelsea, 33).
If Man Utd are to triumph, it will surely be down to Bruno Fernandes to inspire them. The United skipper has the most total goal involvements of any player in Europa League history with 46, and his 19 assists is also a competition-high.
This season, only Lyon’s Rayan Cherki (12) has been involved in more Europa League goals than Fernandes (seven goals, four assists). The only player to be involved in more for an English club in a single campaign in the competition was Olivier Giroud for Chelsea in 2018-19 (11 goals, four assists).
An end-to-end final is expected, which could just suit the likes of Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Højlund.
Only Athletic Club (30) have had more shots following high turnovers than both United (23) and Tottenham (22) in this season’s Europa League, and the Red Devils are also joint top in the 2024-25 tournament for direct attacks (32, level with Lyon).
Tottenham vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
This will be Man Utd’s ninth major European final, with only Liverpool (15) reaching more among English clubs.
However, they have failed to win three of their last four such finals – versus Barcelona in the 2008-09 and 2010-11 Champions League, and Villarreal in the 2020-21 Europa League – winning the other 2-0 against Ajax in the 2016-17 Europa League.
They also have a dismal recent record against Spurs.
Tottenham have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the EFL Cup (4-3 at home).
The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a season were Everton in 1985-86.
United are also winless in their last six meetings with Tottenham in all competitions (two draws, four defeats). The Red Devils have never gone seven without a win against Spurs before.
However, a more positive omen could be that the teams have only met once previously in major European competition, in the 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup last 16. United progressed 4-3 on aggregate over two legs under Matt Busby.
Tottenham vs Manchester United: Europa League Final Prediction
Many expect a close-run final, and incredibly, the Opta supercomputer is struggling to split the teams. It is currently making Tottenham the slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%), ahead of United (49.7%).
Spurs won inside 90 minutes in 37.5% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with United doing so in 35.2%. The remaining 27.3% went to extra-time, and possibly penalties.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.