Football writer Alex Keble looks into which teams fighting to avoid relegation, on paper, have the best final four fixtures.
The battle to stay in the Premier League appears to have narrowed down to just four clubs, with Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur the contenders to join Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley who have already had their relegation confirmed.
There will no doubt be twists or turns over the final four Matchweeks, many as dramatic and unexpected as last Saturday’s rollercoaster, when a late Spurs winner at Wolves, alongside West Ham first losing the lead against Everton and then regaining it, saw the two clubs swap back and forth in the "live" league table.
Watch: The chaotic finale in Spurs and West Ham's matches
Remaining fixtures
Matchweek Spurs West Ham Nott'm Forest Leeds 35 AVL (A) BRE (A) CHE (A) BUR (H) 36 LEE (H) ARS (H) NEW (H) TOT (A) 37 CHE (A) NEW (A) MUN (A) BHA (H) 38 EVE (H) LEE (H) BOU (H) WHU (A)
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Here, we use two different metrics to try to illuminate how the next four weeks might go: the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), a Fantasy Premier League tool based on a complex algorithm that generates a rank for the perceived difficulty of a team's opponent, ranked from one (easy) to five (hard) – and the average points total of each club’s remaining opponents (APO).
The results reveal that Leeds, already ahead of the pack on points, have it best, while there is theoretically little to separate the other three clubs:
Total FDR Ave. points total of opponents Leeds 10 35.00 Nott'm Forest 13 50.00 West Ham 12 50.75 Spurs 12 48.25
It goes without saying that West Ham and Spurs are in the most trouble right now, being a few points behind the rest, although judging by the form of all four clubs – over the last three rounds of games, they have collectively won seven out of 12 matches, losing only once – it looks increasingly likely that more than 40 points will be needed to avoid the drop.
All four clubs, then, need to get more wins on the board. Here’s what the FDR and APO tells us:
Leeds United have the best fixtures – and the most points
Leeds, on 40 points, most likely need just one more win, and their supporters will be encouraged by their low FDR and APO scores relative to their rivals.
In fact, Leeds are the only club who have what could be deemed a ‘‘kind’’ run of games, starting this weekend with a home game against Burnley, who have picked up just two points in their last eight Premier League games.
There’s a reason why only they, and Wolves, have an FDR rating of 1. Burnley at Elland Road is about as straightforward as Daniel Farke could ask for. Win that, and Leeds have almost certainly got enough points.
In fact, if Leeds win on Friday and Spurs lose at Aston Villa on Sunday, Farke’s side would be nine points clear with three matches to go; one point short of being mathematically safe.
Forest have the toughest run and have Europa League semi-finals to think about
Nottingham Forest fans will be looking at a difficult set of games – marginally tougher than West Ham’s and Spurs’, when both FDR and APO are taken into account – to try to find a single victory.
One win would take Forest to 42 points, enough to avoid relegation in every single Premier League season other than 2002/03 when West Ham went down on 42.
It is far from impossible we get a repeat of that scenario, however, and with games away at Chelsea and Manchester United to come, along with negotiating at least two UEFA Europa League matches, Forest are not over the line.
Things can change very quickly, after all. For example, if West Ham beat Brentford and Spurs beat Villa this weekend (and why not, after both won last Saturday?) while Forest lose at Chelsea, Forest would be just two points above the dotted line.
With a semi-final to think about too, Forest might find a lot rests on two tricky home games against Newcastle United and AFC Bournemouth.
The FDR and APO puts Forest in perhaps a surprisingly uncomfortable position. They are definitely not out of it yet.
West Ham’s tough fixtures point to a final-day battle with Leeds
With the highest overall APO and FDR ratings, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side appear to have the toughest set of games, giving hope to Spurs fans that they can bridge the two-point gap to 17th.
There is a decent chance, as we can see, that it will be a straight shootout between West Ham and Spurs, and the order of the fixtures has some relevance here.
For West Ham, a trip to Brentford is not easy and Arsenal at home is as tough as they come, meanwhile Spurs travel to Villa Park between two huge Europa League semi-finals for Aston Villa before hosting Leeds, who may be all-but safe by then.
It’s possible to imagine West Ham and Spurs trading places with two rounds to go. Whatever happens, it feels likely that West Ham’s home game against Leeds on the final day will be must-win, such is the difficulty of their other three matches.
Spurs have more winnable games – especially with added context of opposition distractions
Things do seem mildly more straightforward for Roberto De Zerbi’s team, even if their FDR is the same as West Ham’s and APO only slightly lower.
Villa’s two games against Forest in the Europa League semi-final might make Spurs' game this weekend more winnable, Leeds could be all-but mathematically safe when they arrive in north London in a fortnight, and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge comes the midweek after the FA Cup final, a priority for the Blues.
Then again, by definition no game is easy when you’re near the bottom. The stats show that Forest, West Ham, and Spurs have similarly difficult fixture lists. The battle to avoid the drop should go right to the wire.