The interminable and drab new European group-stage format finally comes to an end this week, and thanks largely to some big-club incompetence the 18 simultaneous matches in the Champions League (Wednesday night) and to a lesser extent Europa League (Thursday) could really be a lot of fun.
Game to watch: Man City v Club Brugge
While Manchester City have largely put a halt to the most egregious of their domestic nonsenses in recent weeks – the collapse from 2-0 up at Brentford notwithstanding – their European efforts remain stuck on the ‘high farce’ setting.
Having already drawn 3-0 from 3-0 up at home to Feyenoord, they headed to Paris last week for a crunch clash with fellow megarich strugglers PSG, went 2-0 up in the second half and then promptly lost 4-2.
That leaves City now in a whole heap of trouble, needing a win over Club Brugge on the final day just to reach the safety net of the punishment-round playoffs before the last 16.
In the first year of the new format it’s hard to really put into perspective just how bad a job City have made of it because we have so little context and previous form. But it’s a really bad job. If you want a couple of pointers, the bookies made them 1/9 to finish in a top-eight automatic qualification spot after the draw was made. They were 2/1 to win the whole thing and evens to make the final.
A quick look at England’s three other entrants in first, third and ninth also offers a clue or two.
There have been those who’ve suggested the struggles of your Citys and your PSGs and even your Real Madrids proves that this jeopardy-light, fixture-heavy new format is actually fine. There’s something in that, of nature finding a way to make even the dullest football interesting.
But while we concede bias having been and remaining noisy opponents of these changes that have been made, we still find ourselves coming down on the other side of that argument.
The fact City have been as sh*t as they’ve been in winning just two of seven games and none of their last four (three of which have been lost really quite badly, with the other that 3-3 draw) and yet still find themselves almost certain to stay in the competition if they can just beat Club Brugge at home suggests a competition that is deeply flawed.
City are absurdly lucky to still have such a clear shot at remaining in the competition at all. And we’re still not at all confident they’ll actually take it. And we still won’t be when they’re 2-0 up after 65 minutes, frankly. Throw in the fact that a draw guarantees Brugge’s own place in the play-off round and there could be nonsense afoot.
Player to watch: Kai Havertz
There isn’t quite nothing at stake for Arsenal in their trip to already-eliminated Girona. Beyond avoiding a vanishingly unlikely set of results that would see them drop out of the top eight, there is at least a theoretical advantage in finishing as high as possible to secure a more favourable seeding spot in the tennis-style knockout bracket.
Liverpool are assured of a top-two finish and Arsenal could yet be the team to join them if results go their way on Wednesday night. It’s certainly less convoluted than the scenario that leads to the play-off round, anyway.
But while hoping for an unlikely slip from Barcelona at home to Atalanta might be too much, it would be careless of Arsenal not to take care of weak opposition who are in the midst of their own injury crisis and have only pride to play for.
If they are to get the win that will secure third place at the very least, they might need further assistance from Havertz. He might not be anyone’s idea of the ideal striker, but he’s getting precious little chance for rest at the moment given Arsenal’s lack of numbers and transfer activity in that position and looks set to be given the nod again for this one.
Should he find the target it would be a fourth straight Champions League game in which he’s scored, something that – very weirdly, let’s be honest – no German player has done since Marco Reus for Dortmund in 2015.
Manager to watch: The Tottenham Hotspur Manager (Actual manager TBC)
Thursday night brings the conclusion of Tottenham’s Europa League group stage campaign and what we can say with some confidence about that Europa League group stage campaign is that it is has been much better than their Premier League campaign. They’re definitely still in the competition, for one thing.
But despite last week’s victory over Hoffenheim, a marvellously fraught Two Spider-Mans meme of a football match which really neither side deserved to win but sadly in football there can be only one loser, they are sixth on 14 points and still not quite sure of an automatic place in the last 16.
They would, for very obvious reasons, very much like an automatic place in the last 16. We’ve crunched the numbers and consulted the boffins and melted three supercomputers and concluded there is not one football team on the entire planet less in need of a couple of extra fixtures at this time than Spurs.
The good news is that to avoid the punishment round, Ange Postecoglou or Ryan Mason or Andoni Iraola or Mauricio Pochettino or whichever poor bastard is actually in charge of this godforsaken shell of a squad come Thursday night need only win at home against an Elfsborg side that has lost three out of three on the road in the competition thus far.
Beating a notably quite rubbish team at home is absolutely something we should be able to rely on Spurs doing with minimal fuss, isn’t it?
There really are so many factors at play for Postecoglou/whoever, though. Team selection here is such a thorny one. On one hand, it’s kind of easy because so few players are actually available. On the other, how many of them can you really afford to risk in a game that cannot eliminate you from a competition as the tides of a Premier League relegation fight begin lapping at your feet?
There is also the fact that dropping into the play-offs leaves Spurs with the opportunity for a Misery Fortnight in February almost unrivalled in its bleakness. If they’re in the play-offs, they could go out of not one, not two, but three competitions between February 6 and February 20 and have absolutely no choice but to just strap in for a grimly terrifying three-month relegation fight in which success is far from certain.
The flipside is that committing what’s left of your remaining players’ energies on securing that top-eight spot here provides the precious, precious gift of blank midweeks before massive Premier League six-pointers against Manchester United and Ipswich.
And when all those decisions have been made, there is still the decision to make on how rude to be to the post-match interviewer: a little rude, fairly rude, or Full Australian. Decisions, decisions. We don’t envy Ange/Ryan/AN Other a single bit, frankly.
Team to watch: Aston Villa
It’s been a generally very decent and long-awaited return to European football’s top table for Villa, who know they have a play-off spot in the bag at worst going into their final group game at home to Celtic, who are similarly assured.
But for all the obvious reasons it really would be enormously helpful for Unai Emery if his team could complete the job and take one of those top-eight spots alongside Liverpool (absolutely definitely) and Arsenal (definitely barring a string of misfortunes so convoluted and unlikely that should they come to pass will make us believe in The Conspiracy after laughing at it for all these years).
Villa could have got that job done last week but failed and it would be a bit careless not to do so now. Any victory ought to be enough to lift Villa from ninth into a top-eight spot; Atalanta – currently seventh and one point above Villa and off to Barcelona for matchday eight – appear particularly vulnerable, but there are plenty of others in striking range too.
They should expect to beat Celtic, but the Scottish champions’ own situation makes things slightly more interesting all round. Celtic are dangerous here, because they have absolute freedom. They are assured of a play-off spot whatever happens with a four-point lead over Man City, but could yet sneak an automatic place of their own with a win at Villa Park.
That’s a very freeing situation, isn’t it? Knowing what a win could achieve while also having the clarity of knowing a draw won’t do it and the comfort of a loss being broadly meaningless? Could be fun, this. Maybe the format isn’t so bad after all, once you’ve trudged through months and months of swill for this 90-minute 18-games-in-one-night payoff.
Football League game to watch: Huddersfield v Birmingham
Fourth v First in League One gets the midweek off to a fine start on Tuesday night before all the European hoopla kicks in on Wednesday.
Leaders Birmingham haven’t lost since November’s trip to Shrewsbury, while Huddersfield’s promotion bid had been built on an even longer unbeaten run stretching back to October until a disappointingly limp home defeat to Bolton at the weekend that puts a bit of extra pressure on this one.
An automatic promotion spot starts to look a long way off if the Terriers can’t get back to winning ways, while defeat would leave them looking back nervously at those below them.
