Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card and tips up a 13/1 weekend treble with Sky Bet.
Newcastle vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Newcastle's injury crisis has had a huge influence on this market where Chelsea are now favourites at 29/20 with Sky Bet. It's a price which looks skinny to me but the team news angle still is a betting proposition as whoever fills in at right-back for Newcastle is going to be under serious pressure if Alejandro Garnacho starts.
All signs suggest Lewis Miley is set to deputise on that side and at 5/1 with Sky Bet to be booked, that's a price that simply doesn't marry up with the task he's facing. When Garnacho is on song, he is the definition of a stress test for defenders.
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When at Manchester United, since the start of the 23/24 Premier League season, Garnacho drew a card every 206 minutes. That's elite territory for an attacker and it's not accidental data. He plays on the edge, he attacks defenders with pace and he's very theatrical under contact.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Bournemouth vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Burnley going away from home still carry that old narrative of blunt, toothless and just happy to compete. But when you hone in on Bournemouth's defensive numbers of late, this trip to the south coast looks far more open than the prices suggest.
Andoni Iraola's men have conceded 21 goals in their last nine games, and that isn't coming from freak results or red-card chaos. It's a structural issue, one that revolves around the centre-backs being far too exposed and unable to defend with the same one-to-one authority as Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi.
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Burnley to score over 1.5 goals is 100/30 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Brighton vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I am going back to the well in taking on Brighton in this spot because the well is still overflowing with value. Brighton, for all their fluidity and lovely patterns, simply do not enjoy playing teams who go direct and turn them.
Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have won 19 of 36 Premier League games when their opponents have played under 15 per cent of passes long, but only three of 17 games otherwise. Sunderland are fifth in the long passes metric of all Premier League teams this season and are likely to undertake a style of play that causes Brighton issues.
The away team are 6/5 with Sky Bet on the double chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
A bet that stands out here at the prices is Manchester City to win the cards race at 7/2 with Sky Bet, meaning we need City to be shown more cards than West Ham to land the pot.
Despite the bulky price, this bet has landed in eight of City's last 13 games in all competitions, which points to them carrying a cynical edge to their game of late. This includes in a similar home game against Leeds where they won the card race 4-1 despite being the outsiders in the market.
In a Super 6 first this season, 99 per cent of players are backing a Man City win!
Across their last eight games, West Ham have seen the opponents average two cards per game with the threat of Jarrod Bowen and Crysensio Summerville triggering some card-worthy action from defenders.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Wolves vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Wolves top the charts this season for fouls committed and Matt Doherty really got into the spirit of things on his return at Arsenal, making a whopping five fouls.
He will be tasked with keeping Kevin Schade quiet - a player that leads the way for fouls drawn this season for Brentford at 1.62 per 90. This makes Doherty's price to make two or more fouls at 5/4 with Sky Bet very appealing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Tottenham vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Of Arne Slot's last 17 wins away from home at Liverpool, 12 of those have seen under 3.5 goals too. That is a relevant trend when assessing the best way to back a pro-Liverpool angle in this fixture.
We all know about Tottenham's issues in forward areas and them being able to create quality chances. All their key attacking metrics have the look of a team that should be battling relegation: 9.6 shots per game, 3.3 shots on target per game, 1.0 expected goals per 90 and 1.8 big chances created per game. It's an underlying attacking process which is the fourth-worst in the Premier League. Another blank may follow here.
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You can get 21/10 with Sky Bet on Liverpool to win and under 3.5 goals - a nice boost on the Evens for a Liverpool win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Everton vs Arsenal, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Our old friend of Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5 with Sky Bet is the line that appeals.
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Arsenal don't do goal-glut football. Quite the opposite, really. Across all competitions, their matches are averaging just 2.7 goals per 90 minutes, a surprisingly modest return for a team perceived as a free-flowing force. Mikel Arteta's men have seen 15 of their wins this season land the 3.5 goals too, including last weekend against Wolves where they delivered the odds in dramatic fashion.
SUPER 6: 83 per cent of entrants are expecting Arsenal to beat Everton on Saturday evening
With Everton certainly missing Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye and potentially without Keinan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish, David Moyes is going to have to go back to basics for a result. Defend deep, get the crowd involved and try to cause problems from set pieces. That's unlikely to be enough to work against this Arsenal machine.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Leeds vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
This is a fixture where the league table tells you very little, but the calendar tells you everything. At full throttle, with both teams fresh and raring to go, Palace have shown they are the better team.
However, three games in six days, different opponents, different tactical demands and now a trip to Elland Road - one of the most physically demanding environments in English football - tips the scales firmly in Leeds' favour.
Palace's schedule is unique and brutal. And what we've seen from Daniel Farke's team in recent weeks is that they make games an intense battle.
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This isn't a bet against Palace's quality. It's a bet against the schedule they're trapped in. Leeds at 8/5 with Sky Bet is best bet of the weekend material.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Leeds to beat Crystal Palace (8/5 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This one is primed for chaos.
Both teams rank inside the top four for xG created per 90 when trailing in a match. It's where Villa are actually thriving when it comes to the data.
What this tells us is that if the scoreline changes early, the match won't settle. It'll stretch, open up, and turn into an end-to-end spectacle with two dangerous attacks.
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Villa have taken 15 points from losing positions this season, more than any other Premier League side. That's not luck. That's mentality, style and intent.
When they fall behind, they double down on attacking patterns rather than protecting themselves. At Villa Park, that philosophy is heightened, too. Against a Manchester United side that have averaged 3.5 total goals per game this season and one that also thrives in broken, transitional games, that points towards this being a potential banger.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet is a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest vs Fulham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Marco Silva looked crestfallen watching Fulham being knocked out of the Carabao Cup in midweek.
Another chance to challenge for a trophy came and went. And the harsh reality for Fulham is that Silva, who is out of contract in the summer, has probably outgrown them now. He's a very ambitious coach.
Ask yourself this: would you rather keep Fulham in mid-table season after season or potentially go take a job where challenging for honours and playing in Europe is on the radar? Silva has earned a crack at that.
And with uncertainty growing about his situation, that could spell trouble for Fulham over the next six months or so. A club that are famed for downing tools when safe in mid-table, that regression may come sooner.
In contrast, there's a freshness and enthusiasm in the way Nottingham Forest are playing now under Sean Dyche. With Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic back as a pair, a surge up the table is expected. Forest draw no bet at 11/10 with Sky Bet is a tasty wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Nottingham Forest to win (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bet...
