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There is a clear trajectory when assessing the probability of Tottenham being relegated this season. And right now, it's never been more likely.
Turning to the betting markets at times like this are always a reliable pointer. They have a habit of cutting through noise and sentiment. They don't deal in romance or reputation.
They deal in cold, hard probability. And right now, they are sending a shiver down the white half of north London.
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Since the turn of the year, the drop in odds when it comes to Spurs and the dreaded drop has been one-way traffic.
As it stands, Spurs are now 5/1 with Sky Bet to be relegated from the Premier League. An implied probability of 16 per cent.
Frank 'convinced' he will keep his job at Tottenham
Wouldn't it be just so Spurs to win the Champions League and suffer relegation?
But this predicament is no joke.
With just 12 games to play, Spurs, sensationally, have been dragged into a relegation scrap. They are more likely to be relegated than both Leeds and Sunderland. Who would have foreseen that when the first ball was kicked in August?
Prices like this are built on performance data, remaining fixtures, underlying numbers and, crucially in Tottenham's case, the strength of those around you. And this is where their problem deepens.
West Ham are in the midst of a tear in terms of points in the Premier League.
Across the last six games, they have taken 10 points - the fourth most of any team. If it wasn't for stoppage time drama going against them against Chelsea and Manchester United, that figure would be 13. This is a West Ham team completely revamped by Nuno Espirito Santo.
West Ham 1-1 Manchester United - Match report & highlights
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Despite some late swings going against them, this is a team that looks united playing in front of a fanbase that is seeing signs of survival. In the 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Tuesday night, the London Stadium rocked in the second half like it hasn't rocked since the special European nights of three years ago under David Moyes.
"There's a team spirit here which they can cling on to," reported Sky Sports' Chris Reidy. "The players walk around the pitch applauding the fans, there's genuine belief they can stay up."
Meanwhile, Thomas Frank has overseen just two wins from Tottenham's last 16 matches in the Premier League. If it looks like relegation form, quacks like relegation form, then it's probably relegation form.
"Spurs are in a relegation battle," concluded Sky Sports' Michael Bridge. "There is no confidence in the side and no key players are close to returning."
What makes this threat a serious one is that the bottom end of the Premier League is refusing to play along to the usual script when it comes to survival.
The Hammers' recent surge has warped the safety line. It's injected a level of competitiveness that threatens to drag the survival bar higher than usual. This is starting to look like a season where even 38 points may not be enough to guarantee safety - 40 might be the real target.
That is dangerous territory for any side stuck in a cycle of inconsistency.
For a club that dines regularly at the top table, this is not just uncomfortable reading, it is downright alarming.
Tottenham were booed off yet again as Newcastle secured a rare 2-1 win away from home to compound the pressure on Spurs head coach Thomas Frank.
The defeat means Frank now has the lowest win percentage of any Spurs manager in the Premier League era, with a win rate of just 26.9 per cent, as the club now drop into 16th, firmly in the relegation battle.
Despite that, a defiant Frank insisted he remained "1000 per cent" certain that he will continue in his role.
"I have to stay calm," said Frank. "We have to get through this together."
The Dane was booed by fans before kick-off but the home crowd did rally behind their side throughout the game, which seemed to spark a reaction after Archie Gray tapped home an equaliser in the second half following Malick Thiaw's opener before the break.
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The relief and positivity were short-lived for Spurs fans, though, as Jacob Ramsey restored the lead for Newcastle four minutes later, sweeping home from inside the box despite being surrounded by defenders.
Frank called for his side to be "desperate" to win games in the build-up to this fixture but in reality, it was yet another tepid and disjointed display, with Newcastle clearly the better side despite their struggles on the road.
The visitors had won just two of their last 15 league games away from home before this game but controlled this fixture from the start.
The victory likely should have been more convincing, but Joe Willock's goal was ruled out for the "closest" offside call former referee Mike Dean had seen six minutes before Thiaw broke the deadlock.
Pressure was piled on both bosses heading into this fixture but it was Howe who alleviated it, securing a crucial win to take Newcastle into 10th place and snapping their run of four games without a win in the top-flight.
Meanwhile, Spurs winless run stretches to eight games in the league, with no victory in 2026 as of yet.
Chants of "you're getting sacked in the morning" and "we want Frank out" emerged from the home crowd before the full-time whistle, alongside loud boos throughout, with Frank's position now creeping towards untenable.
Tottenham have 12 days of respite before their next outing - but it arrives against table toppers and rivals Arsenal, live on Sky Sports, on February 22.
Frank: Studies show sacking manager isn't the answer
Tottenham boss Thomas Frank:
"1,000 per cent [I believe I will keep my job]. I'm also 1,000 per cent sure I didn't expect us to be in the position we are in with 11-12 injuries.
"There are a few before me up here at Tottenham and many other clubs that have lost their head. I have to stay calm. We have to get through this together.
"I also think there is a lot of studies that show it is not the right thing to do [to sack the manager].
"The only thing I am focused on is fighting. We of course understand we are not in a good situation. But with everything in life, you need to stay calm and keep going."
Howe: We showed who we are, the players are playing for me
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe:
"I said again that I've got to believe that I am the right person to be in the job with all the sacrifices that it entails. I've got to feel the players are playing for me.
"Today, they showed that they are. But that has to be consistent moving forward.
"It's brought us closer together and it's reinforced relationships and made us all look inward. It made us all look at what we're doing and how we can do it better. This is a really tough job that we're doing. We're at the very highest level.
"You're constantly asked new questions. We're playing a game every three days. Sometimes that can feel like you can't breathe, you can't reset. You're being asked to play again and again.
"That's why we rotated the squad to a degree today to try and freshen a couple of players up so they can really find their top form. We need to try and have the ability to do that more if we can get a few players back from injury."
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Thomas Frank is "convinced" he will remain in charge at Tottenham despite fans turning on the head coach after yet another defeat.
Frank suffered the 15th defeat of his reign as Spurs boss with the 2-1 loss to Newcastle at home, meaning the Dane now has a win percentage of just 26.9 per cent in the league, the lowest of any Spurs manager in the Premier League era.
Spurs slipped to 16th as a result of the loss and now sit just five points above the relegation zone, which could have been reduced to three if Manchester United hadn't equalised in added time against 18th-placed West Ham.
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle - Match report & highlights
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When asked if he would be in charge for the next fixture against rivals Arsenal, live on Sky Sports on February 22, Frank said: "Yeah, I am convinced I will be. I understand the question.
"It is easy to point on me but it is never only the head coach, ownership, players or staff. It is everyone.
"Everyone knows what position we are in and what we need to improve on. That is what we are working hard on."
Frank: I understand why the fans boo and chant
Frank's name was booed by the home crowd before kick-off and that intensified in the latter stages of the game, with chants of "you're getting sacked in the morning" and "we want Frank out" emerging.
The 52-year-old was also booed heavily while walking on the pitch after the full-time whistle had blown.
"I understand the fans' frustration," he added when asked about the hostile reception.
"It's a position they don't want to be in. We are working day and night to try and change. It's a position the club have been in the last two years. The pattern is that the club are struggling to compete in Europe and the Premier League.
"Part of that is to eliminate injuries and suspensions. We face a Newcastle team that has struggled a little bit lately. But I think they were more on top first half and then we came back into it well.
"The second goal is a bit symbolic of our season."
Frank: I am the man for the job
Despite the dismal run of form and his position at the club now teetering on untenable, Frank still believes he is the man for the job.
He added: "One thousand per cent. I'm also one thousand per cent sure I didn't expect us to be in the position we are in with 11 to 12 injuries.
"There are a few before me up here at Tottenham and many other clubs that have lost their head. I have to stay calm. We have to get through this together."
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe, who was also under pressure heading into the fixture, echoed this claim and admitted he hopes Tottenham give Frank time to prove his worth at the club.
"Well, I think you know the fine reality of this job is that it could be any of us at any moment and it's not nice," Howe said in his post-match press conference.
"I think when you look at Tottenham and you look at their injury list, it's an incredible list of players that they're missing and I think that's really, really difficult for Thomas.
"I think he's an outstanding manager, I've come up against him many times. I think he's got all the attributes to be a top manager for this football club and I hope he gets the time to show that."
Tottenham's next five games:
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