Front Office Sports

Tottenham Hotspur is staring down the abyss.

With three games remaining, Spurs are in 17th place in the Premier League, just one point clear of West Ham and the relegation zone. A 2–1 win over Aston Villa on Sunday pushed the void slightly further away—but Spurs, one of the richest and most famous sports teams in the world, is still on the brink of getting sent to the minor leagues.

It’s a spectacular fall from grace. Tottenham is one of England’s “Big Six” clubs (a term that has fallen out of favor, ironically, because Spurs have been so bad in recent years).

The club generates the ninth-most revenue in world soccer at $766 million (£565 million). It was playing in the Champions League in March after winning the Europa League last year. Its stadium cost $1.2 billion to build, regularly hosts NFL games, and is generally thought of as one of the best in the world.

The Washington Commanders are playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium next fall. By then, the venue, which usually hosts the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United, could be hosting Championship teams like Lincoln, Stoke, and Blackburn.

“Spurs being relegated would be unprecedented,” Kieran Maguire, associate professor in football finance at the University of Liverpool, tells Front Office Sports. “We’ve never seen anything like it at this scale––a club that was supposed to compete in the European Super League. From a footballing perspective, this is as big as it gets.”

The financial losses, too, would be unprecedented––an estimated $548 million (£405 million) hole overnight, and more after that.

Maguire estimates Spurs’ total revenue across media, match day, and partnerships would be slashed to $473 million (£348 million). Prize money would also plummet. Despite their struggles on the pitch, Spurs earned an estimated $100 million (£74 million) by reaching the round of 16 in the Champions League. Even finishing 18th place in the Premier League—the first of the three relegation spots—would be worth around $163 million (£120 million). In contrast, most Championship clubs are typically awarded only $14.9 million (£11 million) per season.

Spurs’ single greatest loss, however, would be broadcasting––missing out on the Premier League’s $16.3 billion global rights. NBC alone pays $2.7 billion for its U.S. coverage through 2028. In comparison, the English Football League (EFL), which houses the Championship, sold its entire international TV rights for $188 million (£148 million) in 2024. “The Premier League generates over half of its broadcast revenue from overseas,” says Maguire. “In the EFL, it’s around 10% total, meaning the U.S. is a minor market, even with greater exposure now thanks to Wrexham.”

Relegated teams receive parachute payments from the Premier League, a sum directly tied to the competition’s broadcast rights, to help soften the blow of relegation. This is expected to be $61 million (£45 million) for the trio demoted to the Championship this season. That would barely make a dent in Spurs’ $1.2 billion (£875.2 million) debt, on which it owes $40.7 million (£30 million) in annual interest payments alone. “There’s a cliff edge between the Premier League and the next tier down,” says Maguire.

Domino Effect

Spurs could experience up to a ten-fold drop in its commercial deals, estimates Michael Jackson, group CEO of Elite Sports Marketing, a sponsorship agency that works with several Premier League and Championship teams.

Depending on relegation clauses—which allow sponsors to bail if a team is relegated—this could include everything from its kit supply contract with Nike, worth $116 million (£86 million) last season, to its shirt sleeve sponsor (cryptocurrency exchange Kraken), to its banking partner (HSBC), to even its men’s hair treatment partner (Elithair). The club is reported to have already lost one contract worth millions of dollars.

Its annual $54.4 million (£40 million) deal with Hong Kong life insurance company AIA is the biggest question. It’s the 10th-largest front-of-jersey sponsorship in all of soccer this season. It dwarfs the size of those in the Championship––which average only around $1.37 million (£1 million) a year, Jackson says.

He believes it’s unlikely that Spurs’ original deal with AIA, signed in 2019, in the aftermath of its Champions League final defeat, would have a relegation clause. “These are often contained in the contracts of the Premier League’s bottom eight teams,” he says. “To go from a Champions League final, at a time when Spurs had star players like Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, to the prospect of relegation, would have been unfathomable––it wouldn’t have even been considered.”

Still, it’s unlikely Spurs would insist upon AIA paying another $54.4 million if it’s in the Championship, Jackson says, especially given that the brand is set to become its training kit partner when the current front-of-jersey deal expires in 2027. Instead, the gulf in value between the Premier League and the Championship would mean Spurs’ current partnerships likely would be renegotiated. Future deals would also be impacted if the club is relegated––a permanent stain on its Premier League record. “You go down, you start back on lower money,” says Jackson. (AIA and Nike did not respond to an FOS request for comment; Kraken declined to comment.)

Match-day income, which totaled $171 million (£126.5 million) last season—the seventh highest in Europe—would also take a significant hit. Ticket prices for Championship games pale in comparison to Premier League games across the board, but Tottenham’s single-game tickets command upward of $136 (£100) for the most in-demand matches, among the most expensive in England. The club has already said it will freeze season-ticket prices for next year, but if it wants to routinely sell out its 62,850-seat stadium, it will likely have to cut the prices of its single-game tickets.

Premium seating and corporate packages would also be in far less demand, a key reason why Maguire estimates match-day income would fall by nearly 40% in the Championship to $108 million (£79 million). “It’s doubtful Tottenham would be able to sell all its hospitality boxes for a Tuesday night home game against Preston North End,” says Maguire.

‘A Complete Rebuild’

These compounding losses would arrive just months after Spurs announced record pretax losses of $160 million (£120.6 million) for the 2024–25 season. And that included its highest-ever revenues, boosted by winning the Europa League. Its cash reserves are also under strain––from $264 million (£200 million) in 2023 to just $26.9 million (£20.4 million) last year, driven by the third-highest non-wage operating costs of all European teams, $354 million (£260 million), according to Maguire.

Relegation would therefore mean job losses, says Maguire. He cites Aston Villa’s case in 2016, the then-biggest Premier League club to be demoted to the Championship, which cut around 400 roles. “You don’t need as big a communications or marketing department in the Championship; there’s less demand,” he adds. “[Soccer players] will always find somewhere to play––relegation hits the rank and file harder.”

Spurs’ $348 million (£256 million) wage bill, the Premier League’s seventh highest and approximately six times that of leading Championship teams, would also need to shrink. Remarkably, most of its players’ contracts reportedly contain around 50% wage cuts should the club be relegated. “I’ve seen contracts for players of other Big Six clubs and never seen that before,” says Maguire.

But even if player salaries are halved, many player sales would follow, and not just to offset huge losses. “Most players will want to leave,” says Jackson. “Many will still be in demand from rival clubs and few would be willing to stay on reduced wages, let alone play in the second tier.”

An expected exodus would mean Tottenham would have to spend big, even in the Championship. It means it could struggle to balance the books and reduce costs in line with depleting revenues, deteriorating its operating position even further. “Spurs will need to spend to replace all its players leaving,” adds Jackson. “It would require a complete rebuild, even amid financial constraints.”

A Tottenham relegation would be so seismic that the effects would go beyond the club.

Stefano Endrizzi, founding partner of U.S. investment banking firm MergersCorp M&A International, which handles the sale of soccer clubs, says Spurs’ demise will likely affect soccer valuations longer-term. “If a club the size of Tottenham can be relegated, it can indirectly affect the value of those that survive,” he says.

Endrizzi says Premier League clubs could experience a three- to four-fold decrease in valuation following relegation. It underscores the relative volatility of European soccer compared to American sports, where major league franchises––immune from relegation––have price tags that stretch into the billions.

Yo-Yo Clubs

No club the size of Spurs has ever been relegated from the top flight. Not Manchester United from the old First Division in 1974. Nor Villa in 2016. Not even Juventus from Serie A in 2006, following the Calciopoli scandal.

Relegation would be catastrophic for Spurs. But a sustained period outside the Premier League would make it worse. After all, there’s no guarantee it would return to the top flight for the 2027–28 season. Demoted teams face a fight to get back up. Ironically, perennial Premier League strugglers with more recent Championship experience––”yo-yo” clubs, such as Burnley––are often more equipped to immediately bounce back than those with the resources of Tottenham, which was last relegated in 1977.

The fear is what happened to Leeds United. In the years before Leeds went down, it was a Premier League giant. After consistent top-five finishes and a Champions League semifinal, it plummeted, finishing 15th, then 19th in 2004. It took 16 years to return to the top flight––including three torturous seasons in England’s third tier. Even today, it’s not fully out of the relegation fight.

But Tottenham is a much better-managed club, at least financially. The largest bulk of its billion-dollar debt isn’t repayable until the 2040s (“so it will at least have a decade to return to the Premier League,” quips Maguire). And even with events on the pitch, its stadium should still continue to host elite events off it––a revenue stream of $44 million (£32.5 million) last season, more than any Championship club’s match-day revenue.

“Given it’s still a massive club, Spurs can take the hit for a year,” says Jackson. “Any longer, and it becomes a major issue: How do you sustain a club of that magnitude in the Championship?”

If Tottenham does go down, it will be one of soccer’s biggest stories. “If it happens, it’s going to be every team’s cup final next season,” says Maguire. “Everyone will want Spurs’ scalp.”

Tottenham Hotspur declined to answer questions for this story.

Joe Lewis, the 88-year-old billionaire whose family owns Premier League soccer club Tottenham Hotspur, has been pardoned by President Donald Trump, giving Lewis a clean slate after his 2024 insider trading conviction.

Lewis, a British national who was born in London, has been on probation since his 2024 conviction after pleading guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud and two counts of securities fraud. One of his businesses, hedge fund Broad Bay, pleaded guilty to one count of securities fraud. In total, he and Broad Bay were ordered to pay a $50 million penalty.

Lewis was accused of providing his girlfriend and private-jet pilot with nonpublic stock tips about his portfolio companies for Tavistock Group, his private-equity firm.

“I am pleased all of this is now behind me, and I can enjoy retirement and watch as my family and extended family continue to build our businesses based on the quality and pursuit of excellence that has become our trademark,” Lewis said in a statement Thursday.

In a separate statement, a source close to the Lewis family thanked President Trump “for taking this action.”

“Over his long business career, Joe has been a visionary, creating businesses across the world which multiple generations of his family are now taking forward,” the source added. “This is why there is so much more to the Joe Lewis story than this one event.”

Under his conviction, Lewis was not allowed to travel to the U.S. Since his probation began, Lewis has been spending time in the Bahamas on his yacht, a 322-foot vessel named Aviva, as well as at a property in Argentina, a source familiar with the matter tells Front Office Sports.

An email to the Office of the Pardon Attorney for the federal government elicited an auto-response due to the federal government shutdown, which technically ended Wednesday night: “The appropriation that funds the Office of the Pardon Attorney has lapsed, and as a result, much of our staff has been furloughed and is currently out of the office. We will respond after funding has been restored.”

The pardon comes as Spurs—which is now controlled by a family trust after Lewis relinquished “significant control” in 2022—repeatedly beats back rumors that it is for sale. Four sources who work in European soccer recently told FOS it’s only a matter of time before the team is sold.

An attorney who represented Lewis in his insider trading case did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Department of Justice declined to comment.

Premier League soccer club Tottenham Hotspur keeps saying it’s not for sale, but suitors keep circling—and industry sources say it’s only a matter of time before a deal gets done.

Spurs majority owner ENIC Sports & Development, which is controlled by the Lewis family trust, has remained steadfast that the club is not on the market. Three “expressions of interest” have been rejected since September—from PCP International Finance, Firehawk Holdings, and a group led by tech entrepreneur Brooklyn Earick (expressions of interest come before formal takeover offers).

A Spurs spokesperson told Front Office Sports Tuesday “we can say on the record the club is not for sale, as we have repeatedly over the last few months.”

But sources aren’t buying that the Spurs cannot be bought.

“Everyone knows damn well they’re for sale,” one European soccer club owner tells FOS.

“Surely she doth protest too much,” says another European soccer club owner, referencing the line from Hamlet.

Last month, Spurs received a nearly $134 million (£100 million) capital infusion from its existing owner, money meant to boost spending power on players, facilities, and more. That investment reflects the “Lewis family’s ongoing commitment to the Club and its future,” the club said in a statement at the time.

Sources speculate that Spurs could simply be waiting for a bid that blows them away. The club has an estimated valuation of $3.3 billion, according to Forbes. The Earick group reportedly made an expression of interest valued at $5.9 billion (£4.5 billion). Spurs, a historically successful English football club that has existed since 1882, is currently in fifth place in the Premier League with a record of 5-3-3. Chelsea, a comparable franchise in terms of history and potential value, sold in 2022 in a deal worth up to £4.25 billion.

Although the team called Earick’s approach “unsolicited,” he made social media posts suggesting otherwise. The value of the other approaches that have been rejected were not clear.

“If you want to maximize the number, say it’s not for sale,” one of the European club owners tells FOS.

Including the two club owners, four total sources who work in European soccer tell FOS a Spurs sale is bound to happen. Two pointed to the fact that longtime owner Joe Lewis—the 88-year-old London-born billionaire—stopped having “significant control” of the club in 2022, when it was transferred to a family trust. The following year, Lewis was charged with insider trading in the U.S., and in April 2024 he was sentenced to three years of probation for providing nonpublic stock tips about his private-equity firm’s portfolio companies to his girlfriend and private-jet pilots.

Several factors make a sale all but inevitable, sources say, including Lewis’s waning influence and the recent departure of Daniel Levy—former Spurs chairman who was one of the most influential people at Spurs for nearly 25 years. Levy and members of his family still own a stake in the club through a roughly 29% interest in ENIC, but one source says it’s common knowledge that he and the Lewis family—including Joe’s adult children, Vivienne and Charles—didn’t see eye to eye.

“I think this was a power play,” the source says. “I would imagine the kids are going to monetize and sell the club.”

Tottenham, which used to be publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, has been private since 2012. Roughly 13% of the team is still owned by smaller minority owners, who can still trade their shares every two months on a platform called Asset Match. The U.K. City Code on Takeover and Mergers still applies to the club because of those minority shareholders, meaning any formal offer that would impact their interests must be publicly disclosed—although informal expressions of interest or exploratory talks generally do not trigger the same reporting requirements. Any deal would also be subject to Premier League approval.

The Premier League and UEFA declined to comment. The U.K.’s Independent Football Regulator, PCP International Finance, and Earick did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Firehawk Holdings could not immediately be reached.

Daniel Levy has been the most influential person at Tottenham Hotspur for almost 25 years. The chairman transformed the financial fortunes of the soccer club through increased commercial success, built a $1 billion stadium, and firmly established the North London team as one of the English Premier League’s “big six.” It just doesn’t have the silverware to show for it.

For the past 18 months, Spurs have been the focus of interest from new investors. New York–based MSP Sports Capital was linked with a purchase in late 2023 before stepping back, and Levy held talks with Qatar Sports Investments chairman Nasser Al-Khelaifi about a potential minority stake in 2024.

Recent months have also seen former Newcastle United co-owners Amanda Staveley and her husband, Mehrdad Ghodoussi, linked with a takeover move backed by wealthy investors from Qatar.

But Levy doesn’t appear ready to relinquish control of his boyhood club.

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported Levy has “stymied” takeover talks. His high valuation of Spurs and his wish to remain in charge of strategy have been major roadblocks.

As the most visible senior figure at the club, Levy is often a lightning rod for criticism toward majority owners ENIC Sports Inc., the firm helmed by London-born billionaire Joe Lewis. The Lewis family holds 70% of the ENIC Sports Inc. investment, with the rest of the 87% held by Levy, the highest-paid club director in the EPL.

While ENIC owns the controlling stake, Levy wields tremendous power from leading the club’s financial turnaround. (Spurs have eclipsed the $3 billion valuation mark by Forbes’s most recent estimate.) The club is now one of the most valuable and high-profile assets in the Tavistock Group, the holding company of which Levy is a board member and where his son Josh serves as co-CEO. (Lewis’s children, Vivienne and Charles, hold positions as managing directors.)

“Daniel Levy earns well at Spurs. As per the most recent accounts, he was taking home more than £6 million a year as well as the shareholding he possesses in the club,” says U.K. football finance expert Kieran Maguire, author of The Price of Football and host of the eponymous podcast.

“But he wants them to be successful on the pitch, and soccer delivers something that is unique, and that is fame and adulation,” says Maguire. “He was heavily involved in futureproofing the club and building the new stadium, which was done when interest rates were phenomenally low. It really was a masterstroke.” (Around 90% of Spurs’ near $860 million debt is at a fixed rate, with a significant amount of that at interest rates of just under 3%.)

Revenue at Spurs has risen by 170% over the last decade, sitting at a little over $670 million as per the recently published Deloitte Football Money League, good for ninth among world soccer teams.

In the four financial years between 2015 and 2019, Spurs made a pretax profit just short of $400 million, the highest in the EPL. While they have failed to post a profit in the four years since, they have seen revenues rise considerably thanks to the new stadium.

Levy secured a lucrative, multiyear deal with the NFL to host annual regular-season games, part of his plan all along with bespoke locker rooms and a retractable surface that changes from soccer pitch to football field. Music is part of the equation, too: Beyoncé will play a six-night run this summer after the success of her five-night 2023 visit to the stadium. Kendrick Lamar and SZA are also slated to perform in July.

But aside from a 2019 Champions League final appearance and a 2017 second-place league finish, the biggest prizes have proved out of reach for Spurs, while the unrest among supporters—and ire toward Levy—has grown, as evidenced by recent protests before the club’s home match with Manchester United on Feb. 16.

The club has the lowest wages-to-revenue ratio percentage of all 20 EPL teams at 42%, something viewed by fans as focusing more on the bottom line than competitive success, while the squad cost less than the other members of the “big six,” namely Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United.

But that focus on business performance has afforded them greater room to invest in the coming years, something that will aid Levy’s efforts at achieving the silverware he craves.

Jordan Gardner, a U.S. investor in European soccer and adviser to those seeking to invest in the space, believes that with the desire to stick around to try to secure competitive success, Levy has little motivation to step aside.

“People underestimate emotional attachment,” Gardner tells Front Office Sports. “If I’m Daniel Levy and I played such a key role in building this business and making it viable, I’m looking for someone to support me rather than show me the door. He’s a strong personality and he’s unlikely to want to do a deal with people with whom he is not aligned.”