Opta Analyst

With six games remaining in the 2025-26 Premier League season, we give the four teams still fighting relegation one reason to be optimistic and one reason to be less so.

That was a bad, bad, bad weekend of Premier League football for Tottenham Hotspur.

Roberto De Zerbi oversaw another Spurs defeat in his first game as their manager, while their rivals in the relegation battle all picked up points. West Ham battered Wolves, Nottingham Forest scraped a point against Aston Villa, and Leeds won away to Manchester United for the first time in the league since 1981.

Spurs, meanwhile, are in freefall. They haven’t won a Premier League game since December, and are now in the bottom three, two points adrift of safety and are the favourites for the drop.

A first relegation since 1977 would be a catastrophe for a club who were in the Champions League this season, but it is becoming an increasingly realistic possibility.

The relegation battle isn’t, however, done and dusted. It might feel right now like everything is pointing towards Spurs going down, but there are still six rounds of games to be played and that means 18 points on offer for each team.

A lot can change very quickly in football. Just ask Arsenal, who were on for the quadruple ahead of the EFL Cup final, and now they’re suddenly in danger of throwing the title away, having also been knocked out of two other competitions.

With that in mind, there are reasons for hope and to fear the worst for each of the four teams who could join Burnley and Wolves – who are near certain for relegation – in the Championship next season.

Tottenham

Points: 30

Opta Supercomputer Chances of Relegation: 49.5%

Reason to be Cheerful

It might not feel like it, but there are still many eventualities that see Spurs survive. Each of their three relegation rivals have it in them to go on a bad run, which could hand Tottenham the opportunity to claw their way back towards safety.

Forest have won one of their last nine games, while Leeds’ win at Old Trafford on Monday was their first in seven. Both teams also have the distraction of another competition.

West Ham are in the best form of the four teams, but they also have the toughest remaining fixtures of any of them, according to the Opta Power Rankings. Until they face Leeds on the final day of the season, West Ham have five tricky-looking assignments.

Tottenham, meanwhile, have three winnable (yes, really) home fixtures against Brighton, Leeds and Everton, while they also travel to rock-bottom Wolves. Their display in the draw at Liverpool last month could also give them hope for trips to Chelsea and Aston Villa.

The Opta supercomputer has them has favourites to go down, but there are still (just about) more simulations in which Spurs survive (50.5%) than not (49.5%). It’s a slim hope, but Tottenham have to cling to something.

Reason to be Fearful

Put simply, Tottenham’s form is atrocious. They are on their longest run without a league victory since the 1930s. Only Derby in 2008 (18), Sunderland in 2003 (17) and Swindon Town in 1993 (15) have had longer winless runs to start a calendar year in the Premier League than Tottenham in 2026 (14). Ominously, all three of those clubs were relegated after those runs.

Roberto De Zerbi’s first match in charge brought little change in form or fortunes. They lost 1-0 at Sunderland, and they were low on luck, too, as they have been all season, with Nordi Mukiele’s winner taking a huge deflection and captain Cristian Romero sustaining a season-ending knee injury.

The main reason to fear for Spurs is that they have been drifting towards this position for a long, long time. They need something drastic to change, and fast, at at time when they have shown little to no sign of being able to do that in recent months. It doesn’t look good at all.

West Ham

Points: 32

Opta Supercomputer Chances of Relegation: 38.8%

Reason to be Cheerful

West Ham are on a genuinely decent run of form, having taken seven points from their last four games. Only Arsenal, Manchester City, Brighton and Sunderland have earned more from their last four matches.

They appear to believe fully in the instructions that Nuno Espírito Santo is giving them, and after a 4-0 win over Wolves last time out, they will be full of confidence heading into the final half-dozen games of the season.

They took a gamble in January on Taty Castellanos and it appears to be paying off handsomely. He scored a brace in the win over Wolves, but more broadly, he has also brought a presence and focus to West Ham’s front line that was lacking before he joined.

Momentum is key at this stage of the season, and West Ham have plenty of it.

Reason to be Fearful

As mentioned above, West Ham have the toughest run-in of the four teams in the relegation battle according to the Opta Power Rankings, facing mid-table teams who are chasing European qualification in Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford and Newcastle, as well as Arsenal, before hosting Leeds on the final day of the season.

They might have won five of their last 11 Premier League games, but most of those wins came against the current bottom three. The only other teams they have beaten are Fulham and Sunderland. West Ham have a win rate in that time against the current top 14 teams of 25%, compared to 100% against teams in the bottom six.

An unkind fixture list could prove crucial.

Nottingham Forest

Points: 33

Opta Supercomputer Chances of Relegation: 10.1%

Reason to be Cheerful

Nottingham Forest might not be winning tonnes of games – they have only recorded one win in their last nine Premier League outings – but they have looked, recently at least, difficult to beat. They have now gone four games without defeat, getting draws against Manchester City (after twice going behind), Fulham, and Aston Villa.

Those results will give Vitor Pereira’s side confidence that they can take points off some of their tougher remaining opponents, who include Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth.

They are a relatively solid side; only seven teams have conceded fewer non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season than them (39), while they rank safely in mid-table (11th) for non-penalty xG against (43.2). Those foundations could provide the base for a successful end to the season.

Reason to be Fearful

Forest’s problem all season has been scoring goals. Yes, they put three past Tottenham before the international break (who hasn’t?), but only Wolves (24) have scored fewer goals than them this season (32). Forest are averaging a goal a game, and if they continue to score at that meagre rate, it may prove difficult to survive.

Morgan Gibbs-White is their top scorer with nine goals, but aside from him, no Forest player has more than three. The only team with as poor a return for their second-highest scorer is Wolves (also three).

Forest have failed to score in 14 games this season, second only, again, to Wolves (16), so it isn’t unimaginable that they struggle for goals for the remainder of the season, too.

Leeds

Points: 36

Opta Supercomputer Chances of Relegation: 1.6%

Reason to be Cheerful

When the Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Leeds were relegated only 161 times. In other words, the model says they only have a 1.6% chance of relegation.

That really is a minuscule possibility. It’s about the same chance as 12th-placed Fulham have of making up the eight-point gap to Liverpool and overtaking seven teams to finish in the top five and qualify for the Champions League. It’s almost certainly not going to happen.

That figure is in part so low because Leeds have the easiest run-in of every team in the league, still to face each of the league’s current bottom four clubs.

On top of that, after Monday night’s memorable win at Old Trafford, Leeds have a six-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone. They are likely to need to win only one of their remaining six games, and given they host Wolves next, they could give their survival hopes a huge boost in just a few days’ time.

Reason to be Fearful

There really isn’t much cause for pessimism at Elland Road, but that won’t stop Leeds fans worrying that their team will go on another of their bad runs.

Through the autumn, for example, Leeds lost six out of seven games, including defeats to Spurs, Burnley and Nottingham Forest. And before the win at United this week, they had gone six games in a row without a win, failing to score in the four most recent of those. The Old Trafford win was very unexpected.

Also, the very fact that they play against Tottenham and West Ham in their remaining fixtures means that if they were to embark on a poor run, they’d be directly helping their relegation rivals.

This Leeds team is more than capable of missing the opportunity to build on that victory, and they could get dragged back into the relegation scrap if they do. It remains an outside possibility, but while it is a possibility, nobody will be making any assumptions about their safety.

*All projection numbers are accurate as of 14 April 2026.

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Tottenham remain in the relegation zone after defeat in their new manager’s first game. Check out the best Opta data from the game with our Sunderland vs Tottenham stats page.

Desperate in their attempts to stave off relegation, Tottenham made one last roll of the dice two weeks ago by appointing Roberto De Zerbi as their manager. Here, though, their new boss was unable to bring any change in results as Spurs fell to a seventh defeat in their last eight Premier League games to remain mired in the relegation zone.

It is now 105 days since Spurs won a Premier League game, and after this loss, their 16th in 32 league matches this season, there was no change in the fact that they are staring at the very concerning, very real possibility of demotion to the second tier for the first time since the mid-1970s.

Although Sunderland relied on a heavy deflection for the win, they were still good value for three points, having had the better chances and kept Spurs largely at arm’s length. Despite badly needing to win this game, Spurs mustered just 0.91 xG over the 90 minutes.

The hosts, on the other hand, had decent chances throughout. In the first half, Granit Xhaka dragged a shot wide from the edge of the box with his weaker right foot, and Nordi Mukiele failed to get proper contact on a header when unmarked at the back post. Brian Brobbey had the best chance of the half, but stand-in Spurs goalkeeper Antonín Kinsky raced off his line to thwart the Sunderland centre-forward down low.

The most notable moment from a Spurs perspective came midway through the first half when they were awarded a penalty for a foul on Randal Kolo Muani, but the decision was overturned after a lengthy VAR review. Spurs remain one of only two teams, along with Aston Villa, who are yet to be given a penalty in the Premier League this season.

Although both teams had good chances, it was a feisty first half, which was characterised by the referee cautioning players. Only three Premier League games this season have seen more yellow cards in the first half than this one (four), with three of those cards going to members of Tottenham’s back four. The other was for Sunderland forward Brian Brobbey, who enjoyed a physical battle with Spurs’ centre-backs.

After the break, the deadlock was finally broken, but only thanks to a highly fortunate goal. Mukiele drove infield at the end of a 12-pass Sunderland move, and his shot from the edge of the box took a huge deflection off Micky van de Ven to leave a wrongfooted Kinksy completely helpless.

It was the 23rd Premier League game in which Spurs have gone behind this season, and they have now failed to win all of them (D7 L16).

After West Ham had beaten Wolves on Friday night, and with Nottingham Forest earning a point against Aston Villa on Sunday, Spurs could scarcely have needed a route back into the game more. But they struggled terribly to create chances as they have done for much of this season, and after going behind, they barely had a sigh of Roefs’ goal.

Sunderland held firm to secure a win that takes them into the top half of the table and means they remain in the fight to qualify for Europe next season, now just one point behind seventh-placed Brentford.

Defeat for Spurs means the Opta supercomputer now rates the likelihood of relegation for the north London club at 44.9%. It’s all getting very real, and this performance, as low on creativity as they have been all season, won’t have done much to convince anyone that they can turn things around. De Zerbi has a huge job on his hands, and now an even shorter time to do it in.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Sunderland vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting at the Stadium of Light on Sunday.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Sunderland vs Tottenham Post-Match Facts

Tottenham Hotspur have now failed to win any of their last 14 Premier League matches (D5 L9), now their outright second-longest run without a league victory in their history, behind a run of 16 between December 1934 and April 1935.

Sunderland kept their sixth clean sheet at the Stadium of Light in the Premier League this season, with only Arsenal (8) and Manchester City (7) keeping more at home in the competition this season. Their 14 goals conceded at home is again bettered only by Arsenal and Manchester City (both 11).

Aged 20 years and 31 days, Archie Gray became the second-youngest Tottenham Hotspur player to make 50 appearances for the club in the Premier League, with only Aaron Lennon (20y 12d) reaching this milestone quicker for Spurs in the competition.

Roberto De Zerbi has seven games to save Tottenham Hotspur. If he is to succeed, there are a fair few issues at the club that he will need to resolve.

After a disastrous 43 days under Igor Tudor, Tottenham have made their move and decided another change of manager was needed.

Tudor’s was the fourth-shortest reign for a permanent or interim manager in Premier League history, and given he took just one point from his five league games in charge as Spurs slipped perilously close to the relegation zone, it couldn’t really have gone much worse.

We’re not here to dwell on the past (although that is partly because we’ve already done that, below).

But that is also because Tottenham don’t have time to look back. They have just seven games to go to save their Premier League status, and less than two weeks until the first of those matches, away to Sunderland on 12 April.

The talk on Monday is that Roberto De Zerbi is the man they want to come in and head up the rescue mission. Spurs have never needed to get a managerial appointment right more than they do this one.

Beyond any reservations that some fans have about appointing the Italian, there are also reasonable questions to be asked as to whether the Tottenham players will be able to lurch so extremely between different styles of football. Thomas Frank and Tudor both played a defence-first game based around long balls, while De Zerbi likes his teams to play an attacking, short-passing game.

There is no time to waste; Spurs don’t have a pre-season or even one or two games to make mistakes while learning what they are doing. They need wins, and they need them right away.

So, what are the things that De Zerbi will need to do to help save Tottenham?

Stick to Four at the Back

One lesson to be learned from Tudor’s time at the club is going with three at the back was a mistake. The Croatian stuck by his favoured shape for too long, and Spurs only really showed any signs of life under him once he’d moved to the 4-4-2 with which he earned a 1-1 draw at Anfield and then a 3-2 win over Atlético Madrid.

The players weren’t accustomed to playing in back-three shapes, and Spurs were overrun consistently in midfield, clearly far more comfortable once they were in a more traditional formation.

Tottenham weren’t entirely hopeless in a back three under Frank, so there’s no need to write off the possibility of switching to a back three from time to time, but the players’ confidence is now all but completely shot. Surely there is nobody at the club or among the fanbase who would be given any belief by playing with three centre-backs.

The players need all the help they can get and a good starting point would be avoiding overcomplicating things with the choice of system.

Don’t Play Players Out of Position

Tudor made things even more difficult for himself by consistently playing players out of position. Conor Gallagher was fielded on the right side of midfield. Archie Gray played at right wing-back and left-back. João Palhinha and Pedro Porro were both played on the right side of central defence in a back three. In Tudor’s final game, Lucas Bergvall returned to action in an unfamiliar role on the right flank. A grand total of zero of those experiments worked.

The former manager did, in fairness, have to contend with an extreme injury crisis that left him with little room for manoeuvre, but he also didn’t help himself, largely in playing with three at the back and forcing his players to fit into the system he wanted.

Tottenham’s injury problems are subsiding a little, though, with Bergvall and Destiny Udogie back in action, while Tudor said before the defeat to Nottingham Forest that Mohammed Kudus and Rodrigo Bentancur are both “progressing well” in their recoveries. That should mean that De Zerbi has a little more choice in his team selection.

Tottenham don’t have the luxury of time for players to learn new jobs. They need to be comfortable with whatever the new man asks the players to do, which will presumably be very different from what came before.

Spurs have played 12.2% of their passes long in Premier League games this season – a higher proportion than nine other sides – while in De Zerbi’s first season at Brighton, his side ranked second from bottom, with just 7.5% of their passes played long.

There’s going to be a lot of change in the style of football, so he needs to make it as easy as he can for the players.

Sort Out Disciplinary Problems

Frustration got the better of a few Spurs players at the depths of their lowest ebbs this season, and that led to red cards that only made their jobs more difficult.

Key centre-backs and senior players Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven both got straight red cards in Premier League games that left their teammates without a hope and suspensions for further games. And Van de Ven almost – and probably should have – been given another red for a wild lunge away to Atlético Madrid in the Champions League.

When Spurs needed calm heads, two of their most important leaders let them down. They clearly struggled to balance the motivation they had to succeed with the aggression they needed to win their individual battles.

Spurs cannot afford any more such issues. They can’t afford to be playing even a minute of the seven cup finals they face before the end of the season a man down. They need all the help they can get, and that means impeccable decision-making despite the utterly desperate situation.

One worry with De Zerbi coming in could be that he is hardly a calm head in difficult times. He is the definition of a hothead, in fact. Over his two years at Brighton, he received both more yellow cards (nine) and more red cards (two) than any other manager in the Premier League.

He needs to channel his anger positively and, more importantly, make sure his players do, too.

(Re)Teach Playing Out From the Back, but Find a Balance

Tottenham haven’t played out from the back or played through the thirds effectively with any consistency this season. Despite that being exactly what they did under Ange Postecoglou for the previous two campaigns, the club decided to change tack entirely last summer.

It probably shouldn’t have been a surprise. They have made stylistic jumps with their managerial appointments fairly consistently ever since Mauricio Pochettino left in 2019, only to make at best short-term gains. So, after Postecoglou won the Europa League last season playing a back-to-basics game, the switch to Frank’s football was perhaps predictable. So, too, whether right or wrong, is this latest veer back to a possession-based game.

The only problem this time is that the new manager has very, very little time to implement his game plan. He surely won’t compromise too much, though, and he may well need to hope that his players can learn on the job.

At the same time, whether or not the players are good enough to play De Zerbi’s football, they are unlikely to be able to do it well immediately, and some of their best moments under Frank and Tudor came after long balls.

The equaliser at Liverpool, for example, came from a punt upfield from Guglielmo Vicario, and Spurs had a few other chances after long balls in that game, with Dominic Solanke and Richarlison both performing well as a physical centre-forward duo.

De Zerbi doesn’t like long-ball football, but there’s a chance he’ll need a bit of it just to get Tottenham up the pitch.

Get Xavi Simons in the Team

Tottenham’s squad is terribly built. They are lacking in options in some areas, while having way too many of the same sort of player elsewhere.

This is a real issue in attack, where they currently have three fit centre-forwards, one player who can play on the left in Mathys Tel, and nobody available who is most comfortable on the right. Their squad planning is arguably the biggest failure of the last few years.

They have also only had one creative midfielder fit at all this season, and yet Xavi Simons, the most talented player in the squad, couldn’t get in the team under Tudor, perhaps in the interest of balance in the starting team.

The Dutch international was the inspiration behind the win over Atlético – Spurs’ only win in their last 10 games – and he surely needs to be one of the players this team is based around if they are going to try and keep the ball on the floor.

Spurs’ problems with creativity have been well documented this season. Only three teams have mustered a lower expected goals total in Premier League games than Spurs (32.6 xG).

Simons has not been faultless in that, but he also has the ability to create something from very little, and that could be invaluable in the run-in. His 3.1 expected assists from open play in Premier League games this season is higher than any other Spurs player, even though he has only played 1,599 of a possible 2,790 minutes (57.3%).

On a per-90 basis, his 0.17 open-play xA is higher than the likes of Anthony Gordon (0.16), Eberechi Eze (0.13) and Amad Diallo (0.15).

Spurs need to make him their main man for the final seven games of the season.

Bin Off Long Throws

Long throws have come back into fashion this season, and Spurs have been trying to replicate the success Frank had at Brentford with them all season. Long after he has departed, too.

They aren’t very good at them, though. They have hurled the ball into the opposition’s box (and at least 20 metres before the next touch of the ball) 74 times in league games this season, but only 12 of them have led to a shot.

Those 12 shots have been worth just 0.92 xG, and Spurs haven’t scored a single goal from any of them. They have the worst record with long throws of all Premier League teams this season.

Some teams are making use of long throws, but Spurs are not one of them. In fact, in the win over Atlético earlier this month, Spurs scored from a throw-in situation for the first time in any competition this season when Porro took a short throw-in to Tel, who crossed for Randal Kolo Muani to score. Then, just after half-time, with Spurs 1-0 up and chasing a second, they conceded from a counter-attack after sending defenders forwards for another failed long throw.

Long throws have arguably done more harm than good for Spurs this season, so it may be time to leave them in the past.

Tottenham’s Premier League relegation worries increased on Sunday following a 3-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest: the latest disastrous result in a dreadful 2025-26 campaign.

Nottingham Forest secured a fourth successive Premier League victory over Tottenham Hotspur to give themselves a huge boost in the battle against relegation.

Goals from Igor Jesus, Morgan Gibbs-White and Taiwo Awoniyi sealed a 3-0 victory – the first league win under Vítor Pereira – and condemned Tottenham to their 15th Premier League defeat of the season, as they now sit just a point and a place above the relegation zone heading into the March international break.

Based on three points for a win, this defeat sees Tottenham equal their lowest points tally after 31 games of a league season, level with the 1914-15 campaign – a season that ended in relegation to the second tier.

Igor Jesus has struggled for goals in the Premier League since signing from Botafogo last summer, but he found the net for the third time in the competition with his opening strike in this match. Amazingly, it was the first time that Forest have taken the lead in a Premier League game under Pereira across his five matches in charge.

Neco Williams’ corner was swung into the box, and the Brazilian striker escaped his marker to meet the cross with his head before powerfully placing the ball into the net past Guglielmo Vicario.

Despite his issues in front of goal in league competition, only Erling Haaland (13), Igor Thiago (12) and João Pedro (11) have stuck more away goals across all competitions among Premier League players than he has (10).

Tottenham hadn’t come from behind to win a Premier League game since November 2024 versus Aston Villa at home, and Igor Tudor made a double substitution at half-time to try and inject some life into his side, with Lucas Bergvall and Destiny Udogie replacing Micky van de Ven and Djed Spence.

But 16 minutes into the second half, a player that Spurs tried to sign last summer; Gibbs-White, put Forest into a 2-0 lead.

Tottenham sat and watched Forest build-up play towards their goal before allowed Callum Hudson-Odoi to drift past the defence and lay the ball off to an unmarked Gibbs-White inside the box to score his ninth Premier League goal of the campaign.

As the seats emptied in the stadium, Awoniyi’s 87th-minute goal left the remaining Tottenham supporters booing the efforts of their players on the pitch. Only after that third goal did Spurs attempt their second shot on target, with their only other attempt on target coming in the first half added time.

Not since 1976-77 have Tottenham suffered relegation from the English top-flight, but following this latest defeat, there are serious threats of a drop down to the Championship.

This dominant win saw Forest leapfrog Tottenham in the Premier League table and move two points above them with seven games left to play. The only positive for Spurs today is that West Ham also lost, going down at Aston Villa, to remain one place below them in the relegation zone.

Before kick-off, Spurs were given a 12.8% chance of relegation from the Premier League this season. Now, after this latest demoralising defeat, that projected chance has risen to 23.3% with the Opta supercomputer.

Tottenham are the only side without a Premier League win so far in 2026, drawing five and losing eight of their 13 games. In fact, in their top-flight league history, only from December 1934 to April 1935 (16) have they ever gone longer without winning.

Tudor’s appointment as interim manager on 14 February was supposed to reinvigorate Spurs in their fight against relegation. Instead, the Croatian has led them into deeper trouble, winning the fewest points of any Premier League club across his five-game tenure (1).

With three weeks until their next league game, a trip to Sunderland on 12 April, he might not get a chance to take charge of a sixth.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest stats from their Premier League meeting at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday 22 March 2026.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest Post-Match Facts

Tottenham haven’t won any of their last 13 league matches (D5 L8), equaling their second longest winless run in league competition in their history (also 13 in November 1912). They’ve only had a longer run once before, going 16 without a victory between December 1934 and April 1935.

Tottenham have won just 30 points from 31 Premier League games this season – accounting for 3pts/win all-time, this is their joint-lowest return after 31 games of a league campaign, along with 1914-15 (30).

Nottingham Forest have achieved a league double over Tottenham in consecutive seasons for just the second time (2024-25 and 2025-26), after doing so in both 1995-96 and 1996-97.

Across spells with Juventus and current club Tottenham, Igor Tudor hasn’t won any of his last 10 league matches as manager (D4 L6) – the longest run of his career.

This was just the third time that Tottenham have lost by 3+ goals at home to a side starting the day in 17th or lower in the Premier League table, along with 0-3 defeats to West Ham in October 2013 and Sheffield Wednesday in August 1998.

Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United will be hoping to get their ailing campaigns back on track on Tuesday. We look ahead to this Premier League clash with our Tottenham vs Newcastle prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Newcastle: The Key Stats

Tottenham are slightly more likely to win, according to the Opta supercomputer. They won 40.7% of the pre-game simulations compared to Newcastle’s 32.6% win rate.

Since winning four of their first five home Premier League matches in the 2024-25 season, Tottenham have won just four out of their last 26 games on their own turf (D7 L15).

Dominic Solanke has scored 13 goals in his last 19 home Premier League starts and found the net in each of his three previous encounters with Newcastle (four goals).

Tottenham Hotspur host Newcastle United in the Premier League on Tuesday in a match that could be pivotal in the futures of both managers.

The pressure on Thomas Frank has been increasing in a disappointing campaign, with a 2-0 defeat at Manchester United on Saturday leaving Tottenham just six points clear of the relegation zone.

Cristian Romero’s latest red card in the opening half an hour at Old Trafford made getting something from the game far more difficult; the Argentina international became the first player to be dismissed twice in the Premier League this season, meaning he will now serve a four-game ban.

Romero apologised to his team-mates in the dressing room, but that will be of little consolation after goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes meant Spurs’ search for a first Premier League win of 2026 remains ongoing.

The result will have been even more disappointing given the visitors produced a stirring second-half comeback from two goals down to earn a point with a 2-2 draw against Manchester City in their prior outing, albeit with 11 men.

And Frank does not have a strong record against his counterpart on Tuesday, Eddie Howe. The Dane has only won one of their nine meetings in the Premier League.

Howe will be eager to get the better of Frank again after Newcastle were booed off following a 3-2 loss at home to Brentford on Saturday, which came in the wake of a 4-1 defeat at Liverpool as well as their EFL Cup defence ending with a heavy semi-final elimination at the hands of Man City on Wednesday (5-1 on aggregate).

The Magpies took a first-half lead against Brentford at St James’ Park through Sven Botman, and levelled to 2-2 when Bruno Guimarães scored from the spot, but succumbed to a third straight Premier League loss when Dango Ouattara sealed victory for the Bees late on.

Howe’s side have now dropped 19 points from winning positions this season, with the former Bournemouth boss remarking after the game: “I’m obviously not doing my job well enough.”

Newcastle are now just 10 points clear of the bottom three, meaning they are as close to the relegation zone as they are to fifth place, which is expected to be the final Champions League qualifying spot.

If they are to turn things around against Tottenham, Guimarães will likely play a key role. The Brazilian has now scored 10 goals in his last nine top-flight home games (7 goals, 3 assists) – more than any other player in the competition since the start of October.

Newcastle will hope to have Anthony Gordon – who has been involved in more Premier League goals against Spurs than he has versus any other team (five – three goals, two assists) – and Lewis Miley available once again following injury, but Tino Livramento and Fabian Schar remain sidelined.

In addition to Romero’s suspension, Tottenham have concerns over the fitness of Destiny Udogie after the left-back was forced off with a hamstring issue early in the second half in Manchester. Brazilian teenager Souza replaced him to make his Spurs debut, and could be handed his first start for the club here.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head

No Premier League match between Tottenham and Newcastle – and there have been 61 of them – has ever finished goalless, which is a record. There have been 196 goals across those fixtures, making it the fourth-highest-scoring fixture in the competition’s history.

Spurs are enduring a poor run against Newcastle, losing five of their last seven top-flight meetings. That is only one fewer defeat than they had suffered in the 23 prior matches against the Magpies.

That recent record means Newcastle have won more Premier League games against Spurs than they have against any other team (27, level with Aston Villa). However, the Magpies have only been victorious twice in their past 15 matches on the road in the top flight.

Romero will be a big miss, especially as it was his two goals in the reverse fixture in December that earned Spurs a point. The Argentine first equalised after Guimarães had given Newcastle the lead, and did so again in the 95th minute following Gordon scoring from the spot.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction

It is tough to know what you are going to get from Tottenham in the Frank era, but they came out on top in 40.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.

They are by no means clear favourites, though, with our projections giving Newcastle a 33.6% chance of snatching all three points in north London, leaving a 26.7% possibility of a draw.

Tottenham vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups

Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Archie Gray, Radu Dragusin, Micky van de Ven, Souza, João Palhinha, Pape Sarr, Conor Gallagher, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons, Dominic Solanke.

Head Coach: Thomas Frank

Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Luke Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Nick Woltemade.

Head Coach: Eddie Howe

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Manchester United won their fourth Premier League game in succession following another controlled performance against Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford, with Bruno Fernandes yet again playing a key role.

Manchester United defeated Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 at Old Trafford in Saturday’s early kick-off to make it four wins from four under interim boss Michael Carrick.

Bruno Fernandes capped off another impressive United performance, scoring a goal nine minutes from time to hit another landmark at the club.

After scoring in the second half, Fernandes has now been directly involved in 200 goals (104 goals, 86 assists) in 314 games in all competitions for United, with only Wayne Rooney (295 games) reaching this milestone in fewer matches for the club in the Premier League era.

Bryan Mbeumo had given the home side a first-half lead on 38 minutes, but only after Tottenham had been reduced to 10 men following Cristian Romero‘s red card.

Michael Carrick named an unchanged starting XI from last weekend’s last-gasp win over Fulham, meaning he’s already named more unchanged lineups (2) in four games than Ruben Amorim did in 47 games in charge (1).

It was very even start to the match, with both sides creating chances. There were 10 shots (five each) in the first 20 minutes, with only Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (11) in November having more shots in the opening 20 minutes of a Premier League match this season.

Tottenham looked bright, but a reckless tackle from captain Romero on Casemiro left the Brazilian in a heap. Referee Michael Oliver had no option but to produce the red card, doing so without hesitation.

It was the Argentine defender’s second red card of the season already, having also been dismissed versus Liverpool in December, meaning he’ll now miss four games and add to the plethora of unavailable players for Thomas Frank’s side. In fact, since making his Tottenham debut in August 2021, Romero has been sent off six times in all competitions, more than any other Premier League player during this period.

Just nine minutes later, United took the lead. A brilliant corner routine saw Fernandes play the ball low to Kobbie Mainoo, before the young midfielder flicked the ball with a no-look pass to the edge of the box to Mbeumo. The Man Utd forward, in acres of space, sent a low strike past Guglielmo Vicario to score his ninth Premier League goal of the season.

It was his sixth goal in his last six league appearances against Spurs, with that (across a total of nine games) more than against any other opponent in the Premier League.

United came close to doubling their league minutes later, but Casemiro, who was making his 100th Premier League appearance in this match, saw his powerful header superbly tipped over the bar by Vicario.

Vicario made further smart stops from both Luke Shaw and Diogo Dalot in the opening 15 minutes of the second half, but saw yet another teammate come down with injury, as Destiny Udogie was forced off and replaced by debutant Souza.

Despite numerous attempts at goal, United couldn’t find a second goal of the game against Tottenham’s 10 men until the 81st minute, when Fernandes stole in at the back post to shin the ball into the net.

Overall, Fernandes either had (eight) or created (six) 14 of Manchester United’s shots in this match – the most by any player in a Premier League game this season.

Not only did they end a six-game winless streak against Spurs in the Premier League, but this victory also means United are on their best winning run since February 2024 under Erik ten Hag. It’s also eight league games unbeaten in league competition, with the Red Devils enjoying their best such run since an eight-game sequence under Ralf Rangnick in February 2022.

Manchester United have got their swagger back.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Manchester United vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting at Old Trafford on Saturday 7 February 2026.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Post-Match Facts

Manchester United have won four Premier League games in a row for the first time since February 2024 under Erik ten Hag and are now unbeaten in their last eight (W5 D3), their longest run since January-February 2022, under Ralf Rangnick (W4 D4).

Tottenham are now winless across their last seven Premier League games (D4 L3), their third such run since the start of the 2024-25 season; previously, they hadn’t gone as many matches without a win since May-October 2008 (a run of 9).

Bryan Mbeumo’s first-half goal was his sixth against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League, his most against any opponent in the competition.

Cristian Romero became the first player to be sent off twice in the Premier League this season. His red card today was his fourth in the Premier League since he joined Tottenham Hotspur in 2021, the most of any player during this period and the joint-most of anyone for Spurs in the competition overall (also Younes Kaboul).

Bruno Fernandes registered his 200th goal involvement for Manchester United in all competitions (104 goals, 96 assists), doing so in his 314th game for the club, with only Wayne Rooney (295) having taken fewer matches to reach that landmark for the Red Devils in the Premier League era.

We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash at Old Trafford with our Man Utd vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Will Michael Carrick make it four wins in a row?

Man Utd vs Tottenham: The Key Stats

The Opta supercomputer has Manchester United as significant favourites to win this match, with the hosts victorious in exactly 50.0% of the pre-match simulations.

Man Utd are winless in their last six league games against Tottenham, drawing and losing three games apiece – it’s their joint-longest ever run without a win against Spurs.

Tottenham are on the second-longest unbeaten run (eight games in all competitions) any side has managed against United in the 21st century, after Chelsea’s 12 between 2012–2017

Manchester United have looked reborn over the past few weeks and they are looking to make it four Premier League wins on the bounce when they host Tottenham at Old Trafford in Saturday’s early kick-off.

United are on three wins from as many matches since Michael Carrick’s appointment as head coach until the end of the season, matching a feat his predecessor Ruben Amorim managed only once across 14 months in the dugout.

After 2-0 and 3-2 wins over Manchester City and Arsenal, United left it late to complete their third straight victory, with Benjamin Sesko coming to Carrick’s rescue in stoppage time against Fulham.

Goals either side of half-time from Casemiro and Matheus Cunha put United on the path to a comfortable three points, only for Raúl Jiménez’s late penalty and Kevin’s 91st-minute stunner to level things up for Fulham.

However, Sesko soon popped up to net once more, scoring United’s second stoppage-time winner in a Premier League home game this term. That’s as many as they managed across 2022–23 (none), 2023–24 (one) and 2024–25 (one) combined.

Later that same day, Spurs hosted United’s local rivals Manchester City in north London and, rather than letting a 2-0 lead slip, Thomas Frank’s side came back from that deficit to secure a 2-2 draw.

Without a Premier League win in 2026, Tottenham looked set for a third defeat from four games when City strolled into a 2-0 lead before half-time, with Rayan Cherki and new signing Antoine Semenyo scoring for the visitors.

A fit-again Dominic Solanke had other ideas, however, halving the deficit eight minutes after the restart, and then equalising with a spectacular scorpion-kick effort to rescue a point.

Those were Solanke’s first Premier League goals of an injury-hit season, although the England striker is averaging a goal every 88 minutes in all competitions, the best rate of any Spurs player.

Despite a heroic draw, it was another game without a victory for Tottenham, who are now winless in six Premier League games. It’s their longest barren run since a stretch of seven in 2024–25.

Hardly in form despite that draw with City, Spurs face a United side who have been far more clinical across the board than they were last season. Contributing to that has been their 14 goals from set-pieces (excluding penalties), second only to Premier League leaders Arsenal (17).

Bruno Fernandes has certainly played a part in that. He set up Casemiro’s opener against Fulham from a corner and has the most assists in the Premier League this season, with 12 – that’s his joint-best tally in a single campaign, level with 2020-21, despite not getting a single one in his first seven appearances this term.

Cunha is another United player who’s found a groove, scoring five goals in his last nine Premier League outings. Since the first of these on 15 December against Bournemouth, no player has scored more in the competition.

In terms of team news, Mason Mount is expected to be back “very soon” following a knock, but Patrick Dorgu and Matthijs de Ligt will be sidelined until the end of February at the earliest.

Spurs are leading the Premier League table in one sense – but that’s the injury table, unfortunately for Frank, with 13 players currently sidelined and still no return date in sight for the likes of Dejan Kulusevski and Kevin Danso.

Two-goal hero Solanke and defender Djed Spence are both struggling with lower leg injuries, and both players will be assessed with a chance of being fit enough to feature at Old Trafford.

Defensive duo Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven – the latter of whom ran riot at Old Trafford last season – also face late fitness tests, but Frank expects the pair to be available.

Man Utd vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

This season’s reverse fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium produced a thriller of a 2-2 draw and, as has been the case for both United and Spurs in recent weeks, was impacted by late goals.

Bryan Mbeumo’s goal midway through the first half had the visitors on course for victory until the 84th minute, when Mathys Tel equalised.

Richarlison then turned the game on its head for Spurs by scoring in the first minute of stoppage time, but Matthijs de Ligt rose five minutes later to head home, levelling for United and making up for the deflection that took Tel’s strike past Senne Lammens.

Last season, Tottenham won this exact fixture 3-0 with Van de Ven dominating at both ends, but only once in the Premier League era have Spurs won consecutive away games against United at Old Trafford.

Man Utd v Tottenham Prediction

United’s recent uptick in form has resulted in them being heavy favourites to win this match with the Opta supercomputer.

From 10,000 pre-match simulations, the Red Devils won in exactly 50.0% of the outcomes, with Tottenham given a win probability rating of less than half that figure.

Spurs’ 24.8% chance of victory is less than that of a draw (25.3%), pouring water on the prospect of Frank’s side continuing their impressive record against United in recent seasons.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo.

Head coach: Michael Carrick

Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Archie Gray, João Palhinha, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, Conor Gallagher, Pape Sarr, Randal Kolo Muani, Dominic Solanke, Xavi Simons.

Head coach: Thomas Frank

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off at Old Trafford on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides…

Tottenham Hotspur performed a gutsy second-half comeback to secure a 2-2 draw against Manchester City after being 2-0 down at half-time in their Premier League clash on Sunday.

Manchester City lost ground on Premier League leaders Arsenal after seeing a two-goal half-time lead collapse thanks to a spirited second half performance from hosts Tottenham Hostpur.

Dominic Solanke’s acrobatic equaliser followed his earlier strike to cancel out first-half goals from Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo for City.

After a strong start to the game, it didn’t take long for City to open the scoring. Bernardo Silva robbed Yves Bissouma of the ball near the halfway line before passing to Erling Haaland, who then quickly fed Cherki. The French forward showed quick feet before arrowing a strike from just inside the box across Guglielmo Vicario to put City 1-0 ahead in the 11th minute.

It was Cherki’s ninth goal for City and his fourth across his last six appearances in all competitions, including back-to-back scoring apps against Galatasaray and Spurs in the space of just four days. In fact, the only player with more goal involvements for a Premier League club this season than Cherki (19) is teammate Haaland (32).

Pep Guardiola’s side doubled their lead a minute before half-time via Semenyo, who side-footed past Vicario after receiving the ball from Silva inside the box.

That goal means that he’s now scored in four of his five competitive appearances since signing for the club. is just the second player to score in four of his first five appearances for the Man City as a Premier League club in all competitions (from 1992-93), after Emmanuel Adebayor in 2009 (also four).

After such an uninspiring first half from Spurs, their fans would have been encouraged by their start to the second period. Gianluigi Donnarumma was forced into a smart save from Destiny Udogie in the 50th minute, before the home side pulled a goal back three minutes later.

Solanke only returned to Premier League action two weeks ago following a five-month injury layoff, but the English striker’s hard work helped to half the deficit in the 53rd minute.

Running onto a ball behind the Man City defence, he powered through a Abdukodir Khusanov challenge before getting to the ball ahead of Guéhi’s attempted tackle and diverting the ball into the back of the City net.

It was Solanke’s first Premier League goal since 25 May and followed Champions League strikes versus Bundesliga pair Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt in January, meaning he’s now scored in three of his last four appearances for Tottenham.

Twenty minutes from time, Spurs produced what had looked like an unlikely equaliser. An industrious Conor Gallagher regained possession in the City half before he delivered an excellent cross from the right wing. That cross was met by an acrobatic effort via Solanke, who sent what could best be described as a ‘scorpion kick’ over Donnarumma’s desperate, outstretched hand.

Spurs’ second-half performance will encourage a fanbase that’s been largely underwhelmed since Thomas Frank’s appointment. Admittedly given no option after going into half-time two goals down, his side showed more attacking purpose in the second half than they’ve shown in most matches this season and earned themselves a great point in the circumstances.

Despite a positive result today, Spurs find themselves closer to the relegation zone (nine points) than the top six (10 points) and they face an incredibly tough February, with Manchester United (A), Newcastle (H) and Arsenal (A) to come in the Premier League this month.

For Man City, the final result today will be extremely disappointing considering their two-goal advantage before Spurs’ first goal arrived on 53 minutes. After Arsenal’s 4-0 win at Leeds on Saturday, City are now six points behind the Gunners with 14 games remaining. Larger deficits have been overcome in history, but with a lack of consistency and time running out, they have a big challenge on their hands.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Tottenham vs Manchester City stats from their Premier League meeting at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London on Sunday 1 February 2026.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Tottenham 2-2 Manchester City Post-Match Facts

This was the first time Manchester City had led by 2+ goals in a game and failed to win since April 2018 (3-2 defeat to Manchester United). Coming into today, the Citizens had won on each of the last 115 occasions when leading by 2+ goals at the break (all competitions).

Thomas Frank has taken four points from games versus Manchester City in the Premier League this season (W1 D1); the most by a Tottenham manager in a single campaign since Mauricio Pochettino in 2016-17 (also W1 D1).

Dominic Solanke is just the second Tottenham player to score a brace in a Premier League home game against Manchester City, after Niko Kranjcar at White Hart Lane in December 2009.

Rayan Cherki has been directly involved in 19 goals across all competitions this season (9 goals, 10 assists); the only Premier League player with more goal involvements in 2025-26 is Manchester City teammate Erling Haaland (32), who assisted Cherki’s opener today.

Antoine Semenyo has played five games for Manchester City in all competitions and scored in four of them. He’s just the second player to find the net in as many as four of his first five appearances for the Citizens as a Premier League club (from 1992-93), after Emmanuel Adebayor in 2009 (also 4).

We look ahead to Wednesday’s Champions League game at Deutsche Bank Park with our Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham: The Key Stats

Tottenham are strong favourites for a victory at Frankfurt, being given a 47.6% win probability by the Opta supercomputer.

Spurs have faced Eintracht Frankfurt on six occasions in major European competition, losing just once (W3 D2) and remaining unbeaten in each of the last four (W2 D2).

Frankfurt have only triumphed in one of the seven games they have hosted an English side in a major European competition this century (D3 L3) – a 1-0 win over West Ham United in the Europa League in May 2022.

Life at Tottenham has been difficult to read this season.

Thomas Frank’s side are by many measures the epitome of inconsistency and there is perhaps no better way to illustrate this than the stark contrast between their Premier League and Champions League campaigns.

Spurs are 14th in the league after winning just two of their last 14 matches, whereas in Europe, they sit comfortably in fifth, having won four of seven (D2 L1), with one foot already in the round of 16.

They have won each of their last two Champions League matches – 2-0 against Borussia Dortmund and 3-0 against Slavia Praha – and could record three straight wins in the competition for the first time since November 2019. They last won three in a row while keeping three clean sheets in April 2019.

At the weekend, Cristian Romero rescued a late point against Burnley with a 90th-minute header, salvaging a 2-2 draw and perhaps buying Frank a little more time at the helm. Nevertheless, questions undoubtedly remain over his future in north London after another underwhelming performance.

That is perhaps why their win over Dortmund last week was such a welcome sight for Spurs fans. They were dominant from the outset and took an early lead before the contest was effectively settled when Daniel Svensson was sent off after 26 minutes.

That victory leaves Frank’s side well placed to secure a top-eight finish and avoid the play-off round, which could be a potentially defining achievement given their domestic struggles.

Frankfurt, by contrast, are already out of contention for a spot in the play-offs and will hope to end their league-phase campaign on a positive note.

But history suggests that may be a tall order as Dennis Schmitt’s side have won just one of their seven home matches against English opposition in major European competition this century (D3 L3) – a 1-0 Europa League victory over West Ham in May 2022.

Frankfurt have already hosted English opposition in the Champions League this season, suffering a 5-1 hammering by Liverpool in October.

In Tottenham, they will face a proven difficult opponent. Frankfurt have failed to score in their last two home matches against Spurs – a 0-0 draw in October 2022 and a 1-0 defeat in April 2025, marking the only time they have gone consecutive home European games without scoring against the same opponent.

Even if they do find a way in front, holding onto the lead will be its own challenge. They have dropped more points from winning positions (nine) than any other team in the Champions League this season.

This includes three in each of their previous two outings – a 3-2 defeat at Qarabag and a 2-1 defeat at Barcelona. At the weekend, they suffered a similar fate against Hoffenheim, who overturned an early Arnaud Kalimuendo opener to claim all the points in a 3-1 win.

What will make matters even more difficult for Schmitt’s side is that Tottenham have been one of the competition’s top defensive outfits this season.

Despite conceding exactly one goal on average per game (seven in seven), they boast a 71% clean sheet ratio (five in seven). Spurs are the only team in major European competition history to play five or more matches in a season, concede at least one goal per game, and still maintain a clean-sheet rate of 70% or higher.

With a top-eight finish firmly within reach, and domestic concerns continuing to mount, Tottenham will surely see this as an opportunity to secure another victory Frank so desperately needs.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Tottenham and Eintracht Frankfurt are familiar opponents, having met six times in major European competition. Spurs hold the upper hand, losing just once (W3 D2) and remaining unbeaten across the last four encounters, all of which have come since the 2022-23 season (W2 D2).

Spurs also won the most recent meeting between the sides, edging a 1-0 victory in the second leg of last season’s Europa League quarter-final, thanks to a first-half penalty from Dominic Solanke.

Overall, Tottenham have lost just 17% of their meetings with Frankfurt (1/6; W3 D2 L1). Only against Sparta Prague (0/5; W4 D1) do they have a lower loss percentage among opponents they have faced five or more times in major European competition.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Prediction

Despite their inconsistent Premier League form, Tottenham have been strong in Europe and the Opta supercomputer pegs them as favourites for victory on Wednesday.

Spurs won 47.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while Frankfurt prevailed 27.6% of the time. A draw, meanwhile, emerged as the outcome in 24.9% of the simulations.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt: Kauã Santos, Nnmadi Collins, Robin Koch, Arthur Theate, Rasmus Kristensen, Nathaniel Brown, Farès Chaïbi, Ellyes Skhiri, Ritsu Doan, Ansgar Knauff, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya.

Head coach: Dennis Schmidt

Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Destiny Udogie, João Palhinha, Archie Gray, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons, Djed Spence, Dominic Solanke.

Head coach: Thomas Frank

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

One year on from us asking whether Tottenham Hotspur were in a relegation battle last season, we ask whether things are even more perilous this time around.

It’s 27 January and Tottenham, plagued with injuries, are in freefall.

Not for the first time this season, this weekend they dropped points against a promoted side despite taking a first-half lead. The latest disappointing result extends a dire winless run, during which they have slid ominously down the Premier League table.

The manager’s excuses are wearing thin on the fans, who have largely run out of patience with him after so many poor results. The ‘R’ word has started being mentioned in some circles.

A relegation battle is a real possibility.

This sounds a lot like the present day, but in fact, it describes the situation a year ago today, at the start of 2025.

Concerningly, history is repeating itself for Tottenham Hotspur.

The parallels stretch as far as the fact that exactly one year ago today, we asked the very same question on these pages: could Tottenham really get relegated?

The difference this year is the promoted sides aren’t hopeless. One of them is above Spurs and another is only two points behind them. The bottom three spots are getting concerningly close, with 18th-placed West Ham, who won away to Spurs only last week to make it two wins on the bounce, having reduced Tottenham’s cushion to the relegation zone to eight points. And they are far from the only team beneath Spurs who are, unlike Thomas Frank’s side, winning matches.

The truth is that nobody really expects Tottenham to go down. They are good enough to be fourth in the league phase of the Champions League, one good result against Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday away from finishing in the top eight and qualifying directly to the last 16 without the need for an energy-sapping, two-legged play-off.

But domestically, they have been absolutely dreadful, and unlike last year, they cannot rely on three teams definitely being worse than them.

To avoid going down, 40 points is always the milestone that teams aim for. Tottenham are currently 12 points off that mark and have 15 games left to get those points. That sounds perfectly doable.

But looking back over Spurs’ last 15 Premier League games, they’ve only picked up 14 points. And at the beginning of that run, they at least had a bit of confidence to lean on. Following Saturday’s 2-2 draw at Turf Moor, which followed defeats to Bournemouth (previously without a win in 11) and West Ham (previously without a win in 10), self-belief must be at rock bottom.

What’s more, with West Ham finding form, and Leeds and Nottingham Forest both also picking up points recently, there’s even the chance that the points total needed to survive is higher this season. If Tottenham repeat their form from their previous 15 matches over their remaining games of the season, they’ll reach 42 points. And they seem to be getting worse with every passing week, so there’s no guarantee they’ll even be able to reach that total. The outlook doesn’t look good at all.

However, like most reasonable viewers, the Opta supercomputer still has Tottenham down as outsiders for the drop. In the latest round of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Spurs are relegated 164 times, or 1.64% of the time. Six teams are deemed more likely to go down.

Comparing that to their chances of finishing in the top five – which is, somehow, only nine points away – speaks volumes, though. They are given just a 0.62% chance of achieving what was presumably their pre-season objective and qualifying again for the Champions League (as it appears likely will once again be the case for fifth place in the Premier League).

And things are only going to get more difficult over the next few weeks, too. Spurs face an incredibly tough February, facing Manchester City, a resurgent Manchester United, Newcastle and Arsenal in the space of just 21 days.

For normal teams, playing three of those games on home soil would provide some comfort, but Spurs have the second-worst home record in the Premier League this season, having won only one of their last 10 on home soil. They’ve dropped points against many of the league’s worst teams in that time, so there’s little reason to believe they will beat any of the better ones.

We can use the Opta Power Ranking of every Premier League team to measure exactly how tricky any run of games is and, by that measure, Tottenham’s four upcoming games are more difficult than any other team in the division.

With relegation-threatened West Ham, Burnley and Nottingham Forest all way down the list, the situation might become even more desperate for Tottenham. If recent form is anything to go by, then by the time we reach March, Spurs could quite feasibly be even closer to the drop zone.

In another parallel with last term, Spurs again have Europe as a distraction. They won the Europa League last season while essentially giving up on the Premier League, and although they are extremely unlikely to repeat the trick with more European glory, there is still a slim possibility.

In fact, the Opta supercomputer gives Frank’s side a 1.45% chance of winning the Champions League this season. They are far from the favourites, but they are still the 12th-most likely team to win it, and have almost as much chance of doing so as they do of relegation (1.64%).

Which brings us to the microscopically slim chance that both of those events happen. According the supercomputer’s numbers, Spurs have a 0.024% chance of winning the Champions League and being relegated to the Championship. It’s almost certainly not going to happen, but there is as real a chance as there has been for any team in recent memory. Tottenham are almost unfathomably unpredictable, so if anyone was to do something quite so ridiculous, it could be them.

But before anyone starts dreaming of more silverware, Spurs need to address the rapidly rising chances that they will be relegated this season. Reducing that possibility with a very difficult upcoming month will be a huge challenge.