Opta Analyst

Can Thomas Frank win his first UEFA Champions League game? We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our Tottenham vs Villarreal prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Villarreal: The Key Stats

Tottenham opened their UEFA Champions League campaign with a victory against Villarreal in 48.3% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.

Villarreal have failed to win in all 14 of their attempts against English sides in this competition.

Spurs have only won two of their seven opening games of a European Cup/Champions League campaign.

Thomas Frank will hope to celebrate his first taste of Champions League football with a win when Tottenham host Villarreal in their opening European showdown.

Saturday’s 3-0 victory over West Ham made it three victories in four Premier League games for Frank, though Tuesday’s encounter will bring an entirely new challenge for the Spurs boss.

Frank’s only previous European experience as a manager came in Europa League qualifying with former club Brøndby IF. The Danish boss won just three of 10 matches in Europe (D4 L3) before moving to Brentford in 2018.

Spurs have not featured in the Champions League since the 2022-23 campaign. The Premier League side qualified for this edition after winning the Europa League last season under Ange Postecoglou, who was subsequently sacked.

Tottenham will need new heroes in attack. Departed duo Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, with 37 Champions League goals between them for Spurs, account for 42% of Tottenham’s 89 goals in this competition since 1992-93.

Richarlison could be one forward to step up. The Brazilian’s two Champions League goals for Tottenham make him the only current player in the squad to have scored more than once for the club in the competition.

Loanee Randal Kolo Muani may take on some of that attacking burden too as he prepares to feature for a fourth different team in the Champions League since the start of 2022-23. Having previously appeared for Eintracht Frankfurt, Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, no active Champions League player has played for as many as four different teams in this period.

The French forward’s former team, Eintracht, as well as defending champions and parent club PSG, are among what Opta’s Power Rankings classed as the easiest draw of any side in the eight-game league phase for Spurs.

Starting strong may be key to progressing, though Spurs have only won their opening game of a European Cup/Champions League campaign in two of their seven attempts (D2 L3).

However, both such victories have come in the last two campaigns when they have played their opener at home. They beat Marseille 2-0 in 2022-23 and managed a 3-1 win in 2017-18 against Borussia Dortmund, who they will again host in the 2025-26 league phase.

Villarreal, who finished fifth in last season’s La Liga, have not featured in this competition since reaching the 2021-22 semi-finals, where they lost 5-2 on aggregate against Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

In doing so, they became the seventh different Spanish team to reach the last four in a European Cup/Champions League campaign, after Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Barcelona, Real Sociedad, Valencia, and Deportivo de La Coruña.

Spurs will have to watch out for a familiar face, too, with Juan Foyth returning to north London in Villarreal colours. Foyth remains Tottenham’s youngest player to start a home game in this competition, having made his Champions League debut aged 19 years and 328 days against APOEL Nicosia in December 2017.

Further forward, Georges Mikautadze‘s arrival has added firepower to Marcelino’s frontline. The Georgian striker has been directly involved in seven goals in eight starts in major European competition (four goals, three assists), with all of those coming for Lyon in the Europa League last season.

Mikautadze made his debut in a 2-0 defeat to Atlético on Saturday, though fellow striker Gerard Moreno missed that La Liga clash through injury. Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala and Pau Cabanes are also sidelined.

There is no change for Spurs, who will again be without James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Radu Dragusin, Dominic Solanke and Yves Bissouma. New signing Xavi Simons marked his debut at West Ham with an assist on Saturday, and will expect another start here.

Tottenham vs Villarreal Head-to-Head

This will be the first meeting between these two sides in European competition, though Spurs have won just one of their last 13 such encounters against Spanish opposition (D5 L7).

That being said, Villarreal have faced English opponents on 14 separate occasions in European competition and are still waiting for their first victory (D6 L8).

In fact, Villarreal have lost their last seven fixtures against teams from England in this competition, and over half of their Champions League defeats have come against such opposition (57% – 8/14).

However, Marcelino’s side have managed to draw both opening games of a Champions League campaign against English sides. They shared goalless draws with Manchester United in both 2005-06 and 2008-09.

Tottenham vs Villarreal Prediction

The Opta supercomputer heavily favoured a home win as Tottenham claimed all three points in 50.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Villarreal’s victory chance was rated at 25.3%, while the draw was slightly less likely in 24.7% of data-led sims.

Tottenham vs Villarreal Predicted Lineups

Tottenham Hotspur: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, Rodrigo Bentancur, João Palhinha, Pape Matar Sarr, Mohammed Kudus, Brennan Johnson, Richarlison.

Head Coach: Thomas Frank

Villarreal: Luiz Júnior, Santiago Mouriño, Juan Foyth, Rafa Marín, Sergi Cardona, Tajon Buchanan, Santi Comesaña, Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro, Nicolas Pépé, Georges Mikautadze.

Head Coach: Marcelino

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Tottenham stunned Manchester City once again at the Etihad, striking twice in the first half to secure a 2-0 victory and make it two wins from two under Thomas Frank. Find all the Opta data from the game with our Man City vs Tottenham stats page.

One of Thomas Frank’s greatest assets as a coach is his adaptability. Tottenham have showed it already this season, shifting from a back five in the UEFA Super Cup against PSG – where they played direct and without much of the ball – to a flat back four in their Premier League opener against Burnley, where they dominated possession and ran out 3-0 winners.

Perhaps that’s why it was a little surprising to see Frank set Spurs up with a back four away at Manchester City, but for the vast majority of the game at the Etihad, they looked supremely comfortable.

Their flexibility under Frank was summed up in their opening goal. Comfortable enough to build from the back for much of the first half, they instead went direct on this occasion. A long ball forward was flicked on by Pape Sarr into Richarlison, who squared for Brennan Johnson to slide home. Tottenham have now scored the first goal in each of their last five Premier League trips to the Etihad, winning two of the previous four (D1 L1).

Their chances of adding another victory increased dramatically on the stroke of half-time. A calamitous sequence from a City goal-kick saw James Trafford delay far too long before passing a short ball into Nico González, who was dispossessed by the ever-influential Sarr. Joao Palhinha pounced on the loose ball to fire Spurs into a two-goal lead.

In doing so, Spurs became the first side to score 2+ goals in five consecutive top-flight away games against City since Sunderland (1980–2000).

It was also only the sixth time under Pep Guardiola that City have trailed a Premier League home game by two or more goals at half-time, with Spurs now responsible for half of those occasions (3/6), including three of the last four (January 2023 and November 2024).

In a subdued first 45 minutes for City, Omar Marmoush was the one player who threatened to break the game open. Lively and direct on the left, he stood out as City’s most dangerous attacker. His best chance came in the 28th minute, when Erling Haaland powered through midfield and split the Spurs defence to release the Egyptian, only for Vicario to spread himself well to make the save. Marmoush ended the half with three of City’s four shots.

Despite City seeing much of the ball after the break, Spurs were comfortable without it. Djed Spence and Porro handled the wide threat with assurance, while Palhinha was combative in front of the back four, putting in the tackles and blocks that have quickly become his trademark. He finished with more tackles (4) and duels won (8) than any other Spurs player.

It was Tottenham, in fact, who looked the more likely to extend their lead. Richarlison remained lively in the City box, particularly from crosses, while Guardiola’s side struggled to fashion anything of note. Their second-half attacking output is summed up by the expect goals race chart: basically flat.

Not even the introduction of Rodri could spark them into life. The Spaniard’s header from a corner in the 76th minute was City’s first shot on target since Marmoush’s effort in the 28th minute. In total, Guardiola’s side managed just five efforts after the interval.

Spurs were by far the more deserving winners. Their organisation and work rate off the ball was impressive and they took their chances ruthlessly in the first half. Frank will take particular satisfaction from the control his side exerted in both phases of the game.

Spurs have now won their opening two matches of a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2021-22, which was also the last time a Spurs manager began his tenure with back-to-back victories (Nuno Espírito Santo).

For Guardiola, it was another bruising evening against a familiar foe. This was his 10th career defeat to Tottenham – the joint-most he has suffered against any opponent, level with Liverpool.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the Man City vs Tottenham stats from their Premier League meeting at the Etihad Stadium.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

Underneath the match centre you can find the official Opta stats on the game as well.

Man City vs Tottenham: Post-Match Opta Facts

Tottenham Hotspur are only the second side to win away to a Pep Guardiola managed team in back-to-back league seasons, after Manchester United, who achieved the feat in 2019-20/2020-21.

For only the third time in his managerial career, Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola has lost his opening home league game of a season, after 2010-11 with Barcelona (v Hércules) and 2020-21 with Man City (v Leicester).

Having also won with Brentford in November 2022, Tottenham’s Thomas Frank became only the third manager to beat Pep Guardiola away from home in the league with two different clubs, after José Mourinho (Real Madrid & Man Utd) and Antonio Conte (Chelsea & Tottenham).

With six points and a goal difference of +5, this is Tottenham’s best start in their opening two games of a league season when taking both into account since 2014-15 (also 6 points and +5 GD).

Tottenham were the first side ever to score the first goal in five consecutive Premier League away games at the Etihad, and only the second to do so away to Manchester City at all in the competition, after Blackburn from 1993 to 2002.

Paris Saint-Germain stunned Tottenham with a sensational comeback to win the 2025 UEFA Super Cup, securing the title following a penalty shootout in Udine. Look back at the game and analyse the Opta data on our PSG vs Tottenham stats page.

Paris Saint-Germain sensationally sealed another piece of European silverware, following a dramatic penalty shootout win over reigning Europa League winners Tottenham Hotspur in the UEFA Super Cup.

Despite being 2-0 down with only five minutes remaining, PSG did what great sides do and found a way back into the game. After an exciting 2-2 draw in 90 minutes, the game went straight to a penalty shootout – the fourth UEFA Super Cup decided via a shootout in seven years.

Misses from Tottenham’s Micky van de Ven and Mathys Tel in that shootout handed PSG a UEFA Super Cup victory that looked incredibly unlikely heading into the final stages of the match.

PSG had been second best for the majority of the 90 minutes, with Tottenham looking set to secure another European trophy following May’s success against Manchester United in the Europa League until the final stages.

Both of Spurs’ goals came via unlikely sources, with central defensive pair Van de Ven and Cristian Romero both scoring to give Thomas Frank’s side a 2-0 led, but the Premier League club saw that advantage disappear in the final five minutes of the game thanks to goals from Lee Kang-In and Gonçalo Ramos.

It had been 80 days since Spurs last played a competitive match, while PSG’s participation in the FIFA Club World Cup, in which they reached the final, meant there were only 31 days between that 3-0 defeat to Chelsea in New Jersey and tonight. The majority of the PSG team that played against Spurs in this clash only returned to training a week ago.

Despite most of the possession, the lack of pre-season saw PSG look uncharacteristically sloppy in the opening half hour, with Spurs looking the more dangerous of the two sides – both Richarlison and Rodrigo Bentancur had decent chances to open the scoring.

It wasn’t too much of a surprise that Spurs took the lead on 39 minutes, then, with Dutchman Van de Ven sliding into the back of the net after João Palhinha’s shot was tipped onto the crossbar by PSG’s debutant goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier.

The strike saw Van de Ven score just his fourth goal for Spurs, and his first in all competitions since scoring against Burnley in May 2024.

At half-time, Spurs had managed just 29.8% of the ball but attempted more than double the number of shots (9) than the 2024-25 UCL champions (4), with the French side not attempting a single shot on target.

Spurs sensationally doubled their lead just two minutes and 24 seconds into the second half. A free-kick from Pedro Porro was floated towards the far post, where Romero had peeled away from his marker and the Argentine powered a header past Chevalier to make it 2-0 to the Premier League side.

Just like his defensive partner Van de Ven, it had been a while since Romero had scored for Spurs. This strike was his first for the club in nearly a year, since scoring in a 4-0 win over Everton on 24 August 2024.

PSG started their unlikely comeback with five minutes remaining, as Lee Kang-In scored with a terrific strike on the edge of the box. The South Korean collected the ball 20 yards from goal and sent a powerful shot low into the corner of the net across Guglielmo Vicario and his outstretched hand.

Then midway through six minutes of added time, Ousmane Dembélé’s excellent, powerful cross was headed in by Ramos to level the scores, sending the match to a penalty shootout.

PSG start their Ligue 1 defence on Sunday away at Nantes and based on their lackadaisical performance for much of this match, it could be a tricky encounter for Luis Enrique and his side.

The French side’s shootout success means that 12 of the last 13 editions of the UEFA Super Cup have seen the reigning UEFA Champions League winners end victorious, with the exception being Atlético Madrid’s 4-2 win over Real Madrid in 2018.

Under previous manager Ange Postecoglou, Spurs had suffered more competitive defeats than any other Premier League club in 2025 (16). Despite losing the shootout, this game will go down in the records as a draw. More importantly, this excellent performance against one of the best teams in the world, albeit still rusty after a busy summer, will give their fans reason to be optimistic about what the Thomas Frank era may bring.

Our Opta match centre delivers you all the PSG vs Tottenham stats from their UEFA Super Cup clash at Bluenergy Stadium, Udine.

The match centre below includes team and player stats, expected goals data, passing networks, an Opta chalkboard and more. It gives you everything you need to do your own match analysis.

With Bayern Munich midfielder João Palhinha close to signing for Tottenham Hotspur on loan, we look at why Thomas Frank wants to bring him back to the Premier League.

It was the first ever north London derby to be played outside of England as Arsenal took on Tottenham Hotspur in Hong Kong on Thursday, with Spurs winning 1-0.

Granted, it was only a friendly, if there is such a thing between these two, but it wasn’t just notable for Thomas Frank winning what was technically his first NLD as Spurs manager. He also came up against a man who was his captain just a few weeks ago.

Christian Nørgaard played 68 minutes for his new club Arsenal, having been such an integral part of Frank’s Brentford in recent years. Only Bryan Mbeumo (11,218) played more minutes for Frank in the Premier League than Nørgaard (10,171).

Nobody won possession as many times for Brentford as Nørgaard last season in the league (193), while only centre-back Nathan Collins (63.0%) won a higher percentage of aerial duels (minimum 14 aerial duels contested) than his 61.9%.

It was therefore a little surprising Spurs didn’t try to sign Frank’s compatriot, though perhaps the lure of Arsenal would have been too much in any case. Besides, in Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Sarr, Yves Bissouma, Lucas Bergvall and Archie Gray, Frank has inherited a talented midfield.

None of them necessarily look suited to playing the way Nørgaard did for the Dane’s Brentford side, though, which may well be where João Palhinha comes in.

The Portuguese powerhouse is reportedly on his way back to England. The man who would tackle a double-decker bus if he thought there was a football on it is seemingly returning to the Premier League to join Spurs on a season-long loan from Bayern Munich.

Palhinha made a name for himself in England with his dominant performances in Fulham’s midfield across two seasons between 2022 and 2024, putting up the sort of tackle numbers that made people wonder if he was programmed to do anything else.

In his first Premier League season (2022-23), Palhinha made 148 tackles, an astonishing 48 more than any other player in the division. He also competed in the second-most duels (487), winning 59.1% of them. He won 64.3% of his 112 aerial duels, with only 11 players (100+ aerial duels) winning a greater proportion, and 10 of them were centre-backs. Rodri (68.6% of 105) was the only midfielder to boast a better record.

Palhinha recorded even more tackles the following season (152) despite playing two games fewer (33) than in 2022-23 (35), once again comfortably making the most in the Premier League, 14 more than second-placed João Gomes of Wolves. It was the most tackles tallied by a single player in a Premier League season since N’Golo Kanté’s 175 for Leicester City in 2015-16.

He also competed in the eighth-most duels (425), winning 60.9% of them, including 56.9% of his 72 aerial duels.

With great tackling comes great responsibility, though, and Palhinha had to manage himself in quite a few Fulham games due to his propensity for accruing yellow cards. He received the most yellow cards in the Premier League in 2022-23 (14), equalling the record for most yellows in a PL season, and he nearly hit that mark again in 2023-24 (13). Notably, he was not sent off once, so he was able to avoid a second yellow on all 27 occasions across both campaigns, which does at least suggest some restraint.

His performances for Fulham earned him a move to Bayern last summer for around £47 million after the same transfer collapsed in 2023. But by the time he eventually got his dream switch to Bavaria, the coach who initially wanted him – Thomas Tuchel – had been jettisoned and replaced by Vincent Kompany.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, things haven’t worked out for Palhinha in Germany. He made only six starts in the Bundesliga last season, and 17 league appearances overall.

That therefore meant he couldn’t rack up as many tackles as he had at Fulham, though with Kompany’s Bayern built to dominate the ball, it’s not as if he had all that many opportunities to do so. He still averaged 2.7 tackles per 90, only bettered by one of his teammates in Sacha Boey (3.0 – minimum 500 minutes played).

He was also unable to avoid being sent off in the Bundesliga as he so skilfully managed in England, shown a straight red card in a shock 3-2 home defeat to Bochum in March.

It was clear Kompany wasn’t entirely sold on the 30-year-old even after the club spent so much money on him, though a muscle injury that kept him out for over two months in the middle of the season also didn’t help.

Arguably the main problem for him in Bavaria is one of the same issues Spurs fans have been discussing since links emerged: is Palhinha good enough in possession?

He completed 92.9% of his passes in the Bundesliga last season, with only four Bayern players boasting a higher percentage (minimum 500 passes attempted). That included a team-high 98.4% accuracy in his own half, a respectable 88.6% in the opposition half. However, he completed just 82.2% in the final third, which was lower than 11 of his teammates.

His numbers weren’t as high at Fulham, but then they weren’t as focused on keeping the ball as Bayern. Palhinha had an 82.9% pass completion rate in the 2022-23 Premier League season with the Cottagers, which went up very slightly to 83.0% the following campaign.

You always have to take those overall numbers with a pinch of salt given completing a two-yard backwards pass and completing a 70-yard pass that opens up the entire opposition are rather different, but it also might not even be that important. Frank’s Brentford finished in the top half last season but completed just 80.7% of their passes, with only five teams completing fewer. So, the Spurs boss didn’t seem to be too concerned with completing lots of passes at his former club, caring more about making them count.

That leads us to the big question being asked about Palhinha: can he be incisive with his passing and help his team to open up their opponents?

For this, we’ll look at progressive passes – these are completed open-play passes in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that move the ball at least 25% closer to the goal.

Only 2.7% of Palhinha’s passes in the Bundesliga last season were progressive (15 of 551); no nominal midfielder who attempted at least 200 passes in the competition in 2024-25 had a smaller proportion of their passes be classed as ‘progressive’.

Perhaps a better comparison would therefore be with Nørgaard, who made 100 progressive passes from 1,418 in the league last season (7.1%), which suggests Palhinha may need to become more adventurous in his passing under Frank, as would any current Spurs midfielder expected to play in that role. That is assuming the Dane wants his new side to play similarly to his old one, which of course we still don’t know for certain.

Where Palhinha is like Nørgaard is in progressive carries, or a lack thereof. The Portugal international averaged only 3.1 progressive carries – movements with the ball that progress play at least five metres upfield – per 90 in the Bundesliga, which was fewer than all other Bayern and Spurs midfielders, but slightly more than Nørgaard (2.7).

It does seem like a no-lose deal for Spurs. They get a player who has Premier League and Champions League experience and can help to break up the opposition’s play in a way few others can. That will likely come in handy against better opponents, having someone who can disrupt opposition attacks regularly and provide more protection to a backline that suffered often last season.

João Palhinha looks like he’s coming back to the Premier League, so you’d better get those shin pads on, lads.

Tottenham Hotspur’s attempts to sign Morgan Gibbs-White haven’t exactly gone smoothly, but it’s clear to see why Thomas Frank wants the Nottingham Forest star.

It’s the hot new trend in the Premier League: signing attacking midfielders/wingers for somewhere between £50-60 million.

In the last week, Tottenham Hotspur have come to the party, adding Mohammed Kudus from West Ham for £55m, and they are now trying to bring in Morgan Gibbs-White for £60m from Nottingham Forest.

The Tricky Trees are reportedly not happy with Spurs’ pursuit of their star man, but we’re not here to debate the morals of transfer business. We just look at why clubs want to sign players.

So, what could Gibbs-White bring to Spurs, and what would Forest be losing if they are unable to keep him? We’ve looked through the 25-year-old’s data to find out.

The 2024-25 campaign was another solid season for Gibbs-White, and an excellent one for Forest. They challenged for UEFA Champions League qualification up until the final day, when they agonisingly dropped to seventh, but it was still a very impressive campaign that ended with European qualification.

Gibbs-White contributed seven goals and eight assists in 34 league games, becoming the only player to tally 10+ goal involvements in three consecutive Premier League seasons for the club. He was directly involved in more than a quarter of Forest’s goals in the league in 2024-25 (15 of 58 – 25.9%).

He was Forest’s second top scorer after Chris Wood (20) and had the second most assists after Anthony Elanga (11), but Gibbs-White created more chances for the Forest than anyone else (51).

He has consistently been Forest’s most creative player since they returned to the top flight. He created the most chances for them in 2022-23 (66) and 2023-24 (71) as well.

Some of his most effective moments came when he carried the ball – defined as the player moving the ball five metres or more. Across the Premier League in 2024-25, only Mohamed Salah (9) and Son Heung-min (7) recorded more assist-ending carries than Gibbs-White (5).

One of those came against Spurs last season. The only goal of Forest’s 1-0 victory against Tottenham in late December saw Gibbs-White pick the ball up in his own half before carrying it forward.

He waits for the perfect moment to slide a nicely weighted through ball to Elanga, who knows his teammate can find him in behind Djed Spence rather than wanting a simpler ball short to feet.

The weight of the ball allows Elanga to get into an excellent position with just Fraser Forster to beat, and he dinks his shot perfectly past the Spurs goalkeeper and into the far corner of the net.

Gibbs-White’s importance to Forest’s attack is further highlighted by him playing a role in the most open-play shot-ending sequences in 2024-25 for the club (148).

He was nominated for the Premier League Player of the Season, while his performances helped him earn an England call-up last year, before making his senior international debut in September.

Gibbs-White has also been fairly reliable in terms of availability, which will be music to Spurs fans’ ears after a season in which they suffered terrible misfortune with injuries. He has missed just eight league games since the start of the 2022-23 season, with only eight players having played more Premier League games than him (108) in that time.

How will he fit in at Spurs, though?

While Gibbs-White is quite a versatile player, you would think he’ll mostly be utilised as a 10, as he was at Forest.

That means he’ll be in direct competition with James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski for a place in Frank’s side, though the latter can also play out wide.

When looking some of his data in comparison to Maddison, it’s interesting how closely they align in certain metrics. Maddison is another player who thrived at other teams in the Premier League who play a different style before moving to Spurs.

Gibbs-White has played 154 Premier League games in total to Maddison’s 222, and has averaged 0.24 assists per 90 minutes to Maddison’s 0.26, has attempted 2.92 dribbles per 90 to Maddison’s 2.70, created 1.48 chances from open play per 90 to Maddison’s 1.53, and has averaged 0.51 chances-creating carries per 90 to Maddison’s 0.49. That’s not to say they’re identical players, but Spurs at least know they are getting a player with a similar creative output.

But what does Frank ask of his number 10? No player made more pressures in the Premier League last season than Mikkel Damsgaard (2,613), who was Frank’s most advanced midfielder at Brentford. He asks for plenty off the ball from his 10, so Gibbs-White can perhaps expect to put in a similar shift if he joins Spurs. He made 2,092 pressures last season in the league for Forest, the 16th most in the league, so it certainly won’t be entirely alien to him.

On the ball, Gibbs-White didn’t play many line-breaking passes (LBPs) last season (154, the 84th most in the Premier League), but that was largely because Forest had so little of the ball. And when they did have it, he was comfortably Forest’s most potent player in key areas.

He made the most LBPs into the penalty area (14) for them, the most in the opposition half (96), and created at least nine more chances from LBPs than any of his teammates (14). In fact, only 10 players created more chances from LBPs in the Premier League last season, while only three managed more than his three assists from them. He didn’t get as much of the ball as many of the other top creators in the Premier League, but he was hugely effective when he did get it.

Forest only averaged 40.9% possession last season, the third lowest in the Premier League. Gibbs-White would likely see a lot more of the ball at Spurs, though you wouldn’t think Frank will be as focused on high possession as Ange Postecoglou was. Brentford averaged 47.8% possession (sixth lowest), while Spurs had 54.7% (the fifth most).

It should be noted, though, that Frank played high-possession football in his native Denmark with Brøndby as well as in the Championship with Brentford, only adapting once they made it to the top flight, recognising that the quality of opponent was significantly higher.

It is therefore perfectly believable that Frank will adapt again at Spurs with a squad that is, with all due respect to Brentford, stronger on paper in spite of last season’s struggles.

However, one thing it would not be surprising to see would be the Tottenham boss asking for similar output from his number 10 that he got from Damsgaard last season, who was so crucial to what made Brentford so tough to play against.

Damsgaard had the second highest xG from sequences he started (6.25) – the total xG value of unique open-play shot-ending or goal-ending sequences that a player initiated – of all players in the Premier League last season, only behind Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo (6.41).

As well as that, only Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister (13) and Chelsea’s Marc Cucurella (7) had more than Damsgaard’s six goal-ending sequence starts – the number of times a player initiates an open-play sequence that ends in a goal.

Finally, Gibbs-White ranked 17th in the Premier League for progressive passes – completed open-play passes in the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that move the ball at least 25% closer to goal – last season (125), with no other Forest player making even 100, and the only Spurs player to make more was Pedro Porro (129). That will be something else that Spurs will hope to get from Gibbs-White.

Gibbs-White is reportedly someone Frank has admired for a long time, and he may feel like he can take the England international to the next level in a new environment.

Whether the transfer even happens could be up to the lawyers, but from a purely footballing perspective, it’s not hard to see why Frank and Spurs are keen to add Gibbs-White to their ranks.

Tottenham Hotspur are being linked with Japan international defender Kota Takai. We take a look at the 20-year-old’s stats to see how he’d fit in at Spurs.

Ange Postecoglou enjoyed a successful time in Japan with Yokohama F. Marinos, guiding them to their first J. League title in 15 years in 2019.

He also did very well at Celtic, where he brought a number of players from Japan to Scotland to great effect, such as Kyogo Furuhashi, Daizen Maeda and Reo Hatate, among others.

Somewhat surprisingly, Postecoglou didn’t dip into the Japanese market during his time at Tottenham Hotspur, but just a few weeks after sacking the Australian, the Premier League club look like they might be adding a player to their ranks directly from the J. League.

Kota Takai would become only the second Japanese player ever to represent Spurs after Kazuyuki Toda, should his reported move from Kawasaki Frontale go through, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this was a deal that was planned while Postecoglou was still in situ in north London.

New boss Thomas Frank has presumably given the incoming player his seal of approval, though. It’s an understandable move after a campaign in which Spurs suffered badly from injuries to centre-backs.

Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven were a relatively reliable pairing performance-wise on the few occasions they were both fit to start in 2024-25. They started just 11 Premier League games together, and only finished seven, with Radu Dragusin and young midfielder Archie Gray (6) the next most frequent centre-back pairing in the league for Postecoglou’s side.

Tottenham won the UEFA Europa League final against Manchester United with their main pair at the back, but struggled in the league, having to largely cope without them, finishing in 17th place.

That said, Spurs now have an array of centre-back options. Kevin Danso arrived on loan in January and that move has since been made permanent, while Ben Davies recently had his contract extended by another year to 2026. In Romero, Van de Ven, Dragusin, Danso and Davies, Frank already has five senior options available to him, but he also has some promising youngsters in Alfie Dorrington, Ashley Phillips, and another imminent new arrival in 18-year-old Croatia international Luka Vuskovic.

Adding another in Takai therefore seems like it might be overkill, but after the season Spurs had at the back, it’s hard to blame them for stockpiling, especially with Romero and Van de Ven’s respective injury records. There is also a decent chance Dorrington and Phillips will be loaned out or possibly sold, while there are some question marks over the future of Dragusin, who hasn’t played since the end of January after suffering an ACL injury and when he did before the injury, looked like a significant downgrade on Romero and Van de Ven.

So, what would Spurs be getting with Takai?

The path between Kawasaki Frontale and European football is a relatively well-trodden one. Other players to have come through the Kawasaki academy before establishing themselves in Europe’s top five leagues include Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Borussia Monchengladbach’s Ko Itakura and Real Sociedad’s Takefusa Kubo, while Ao Tanaka impressed last season in the Championship as Leeds United sealed promotion to the Premier League.

The reported fee of £5 million would be a record sale for a J. League club to an overseas team, and it would likely be even more were the player not in the final six months of his current deal.

At the age of just 20, Takai has already become a key figure at Kawasaki. He played a big role in them reaching the 2025 AFC Champions League final, where they were beaten by Al-Ahli. They did beat Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr in the semi-finals, though, with Takai playing the full game in a 3-2 victory as he helped keep the Portuguese legend and strike partner Jhon Durán quiet in April.

He has played in 19 of Kawasaki’s 20 J1 League games this season, scoring two goals. Only defensive midfielder Yuki Yamamoto (92) has won possession more times for Kawasaki in the league than Takai (84) in 2025.

As you can see from our shape analysis graphics below, Takai predominantly plays as the right-sided centre-back of a back four, though he has occasionally featured on the right of a back three.

Will he be able to handle the physicality of the Premier League? Well, since the start of last season, Takai has an above average success rate in duels, and especially in aerial duels. The average duel success rate for J1 League defenders since the start of 2024 is 57.7%, with Takai winning 59.0%. In the air, that success rate is even higher at 62.1% – again above the league average for defenders (59.0%), helped by standing at 6-foot-3. His aerial duel success rate in the 2025 season is at a very respectable 62.9%.

That will no doubt please Frank, who favours having centre-backs who are active in the air. Of defenders, only Newcastle United’s Dan Burn (224) and Ipswich Town’s Dara O’Shea (203) competed in more aerial duels than Brentford pair Nathan Collins (189) and Sepp van den Berg (172) in the Premier League last season.

Takai’s aerial ability is something Kawasaki try to take advantage of often, particularly from set-pieces. He has got on the end of more corners (7) and indirect free-kicks (33) than any other player at the club this season.

He has also been impressive generally in stopping players getting beyond him. Of the 86 J1 League players to have seen opponents attempt to dribble past them 100+ times since the start of the 2024 season, Takai’s 65% rate of successfully dispossessing his opponent is the sixth-best in the competition.

It seems unlikely Spurs will maintain the possession-focused and high-line approach that defined Postecoglou’s time at the club, save for the Europa League final, but Frank will still expect his defenders to be comfortable on the ball.

Takai has attempted more passes than any other Kawasaki player this season (1,063), with a decent completion rate of 88.2%, though there is only so much you can tell from a centre-back’s passing accuracy, given how many are made under little to no pressure.

There’s more to be learned from his numbers when carrying the ball. Since the start of 2024, Takai has averaged 5.9 progressive carries (moving with the ball at least five metres towards the opposition’s goal) per 90 minutes in the J1 League, and 48.5 metres per 90 from those carries upfield, showing how comfortable he is bringing the ball out of defence.

When looking at Opta’s Player Comparison Radars, it’s interesting to see who Takai’s numbers from this season most closely align with in Europe’s top five leagues from the 2024-25 campaign.

Toulouse defender and England Under-21 international Charlie Cresswell is the player considered to most closely resemble Takai’s output, but the third closest comparison is apparently Dean Huijsen, another 20-year-old centre-back who impressed so much in the Premier League with Bournemouth last season that he earned a £50m move to Real Madrid earlier this summer.

It, of course, must be borne in mind that it is a big step up in quality from the J1 League to the English Premier League. For example, Kawasaki are 191st in the Opta Power Rankings, the third best of J1 League teams, while the lowest ranked Premier League team are Sunderland in 124th.

Takai has already received senior international recognition, having made four appearances for Japan, including a start in their 6-0 thrashing of Indonesia in a World Cup 2026 qualifier earlier this month, playing on the right of a back three for the Samurai Blue.

Reports suggest he will be part of the first team squad next season at Spurs if he joins, but it seems unlikely Takai will see much football in England initially without more injuries to senior centre-backs.

Having another promising option for Frank to develop can’t hurt, though, and with a UEFA Champions League campaign to navigate, there will be plenty of games to go around.

If Takai can thrive in Europe like previous Kawasaki Frontale alumni, though, he will certainly be one to watch over the next few years.

Thomas Frank has been appointed Tottenham boss without having managed in the Champions League before. We look at the unique challenge he will face in north London.

Thomas Frank, the new Tottenham Hotspur manager, faces the rather unusual challenge of going into a new club who have qualified for the Champions League.

It’s an unusual situation because whatever a team has done to get into Europe’s biggest competition tends to mean they had a successful season, and so there’s rarely any desire or need to change manager in the months afterwards.

But what has happened at Spurs recently is unique. They won the Europa League – guaranteeing a spot in next season’s Champions League – after their worst ever Premier League campaign. Tottenham finished 17th in the table having lost more games (22) than any other team to avoid relegation in the Premier League era, and so chose to sack their trophy-drought-ending manager Ange Postecoglou.

It means Frank faces a challenge that few others ever have ever had: Champions League football in his first season at a new club. He is only the 10th manager in the Premier League era to go into a new club during the off-season with a Champions League campaign coming up.

But the task for Frank is actually even greater. He goes into Spurs having never managed anyone in the Champions League before. In fact, a couple of Europa League qualifiers with Brøndby is all the experience in European competition he has as a manager.

There’s no doubting the quality of the work he did at Brentford, nor the fact that he is a hugely exciting appointment, but the question mark over how he will contend with the challenge of Champions League football at Tottenham is a legitimate one.

Also, none of the above takes into account that the Spurs team he has taken over have just become the lowest-ranked team (in terms of league position) to win either the UEFA Cup/Europa League or the European Cup/Champions League, and the lowest-ranked team to qualify for the Champions League.

Postecoglou did admit after the season ended that he had put all of his eggs in the Europa League basket and essentially gave up in the Premier League in the closing weeks, so that does provide some mitigation for his side’s terrible final position. Nevertheless, there are clearly lots of problems to be fixed for Spurs to become a team capable of competing in Europe’s biggest competition. In league position terms, they will become the worst team ever to play in the Champions League.

Frank may also be concerned about the fate of previous managers who debuted in the Champions League in their first season at a new club.

In the Premier League era, five other managers have gone to a new team during the summer before a season in the Champions League without ever having managed a game in the competition before. Three of them didn’t last even one full season, and neither of the other two lasted longer than 18 months. Clearly, this is a tough situation in which to join a club.

Each of those five managers started at their new club in different circumstances. The first was Ray Harford, who replaced Kenny Dalglish as Blackburn Rovers manager shortly after they won the league in 1994-95. He survived the full season, with Blackburn finishing seventh in the Premier League, but they crashed out of the Champions League in the group stage, and he lasted only a couple of months into the following campaign. His 16-month stint was longer than three of the other managers in this list but the shortest for a Blackburn manager in 17 years, showing how much winning the league had altered expectations at the club.

There was a 13-year wait for another club to change manager off the back of a Champions League-securing campaign, with Chelsea next to do so when they sacked Avram Grant after a 2007-08 season in which they came close to winning three major trophies but ended up empty-handed. They finished two points off top spot in the league, lost the League Cup final to Spurs in extra-time and missed out on Champions League glory by the width of the post as John Terry missed a penalty to win the final against Manchester United. ‘Close’ wasn’t enough for Roman Abramovich, though, and Grant was sacked, with Luiz Felipe Scolari coming in.

Scolari already had bags of experience; he was 26 years into his managerial career when he moved to London for his first club job in European football. He had even already won the World Cup with Brazil. But he had never managed in the Champions League, and was sacked in February with Chelsea fourth in the table and seven points off top spot.

Chelsea have since sacked two more managers who joined in the summer after Champions League football was secured: André Villas-Boas in the March of 2011-12, nine months after he joined following a season in which Chelsea had finished second, and Frank Lampard in January 2021 after he joined in 2019, when the Blues had just finished third and won the Europa League under Maurizio Sarri. With his 18-month spell, Lampard lasted longer than any other manager in this list.

The other manager to make his Champions League debut with a new club was David Moyes, who had the impossible job of replacing Sir Alex Ferguson at title-winning United in 2013. Moyes was sacked in April of that first season at Old Trafford.

Interestingly, though, some of those teams did very well indeed in the Champions League despite having a manager with no experience in that competition. Moyes’ United made the quarter-finals, Scolari’s Chelsea went on to reach the semis after he was sacked, and Villas-Boas’ side won the whole thing once Roberto Di Matteo (another Champions League debutant but a mid-season appointment) came in.

Frank will arguably have an easier job at Tottenham than any of those other five managers in that there is so much room for improvement at his new club. There’s also little expectation that he will win a trophy, which couldn’t be said of those fired Chelsea managers nor Moyes at United.

But he also has an awful lot of work to do to improve this team’s results sufficiently to satisfy a fanbase, many of whom will hope to see Spurs challenging for the Champions League qualification spots next season.

To do so in the 2024-25 season, Spurs would have needed an extra 29 points on the 38 they actually collected. An improvement that great from one season to the next has only been achieved by three teams in Premier League history, showing just how big a challenge Frank faces. Two of them won the title (Chelsea +43 points in 2016-17 and Leicester +40 points in 2015-16), but the other occurred this season, as Nottingham Forest won 29 more points than the previous year. Perhaps crucially, though, none of those teams were playing in Europe, as Spurs will be.

Life at Tottenham begins for Frank in mid-August as he becomes the first Premier League manager whose opening game in charge of a club will be the UEFA Super Cup, which pits Spurs against Paris Saint-Germain in Udine. Lampard came close to doing so with Chelsea in 2019, but their Super Cup defeat to Liverpool was actually his second game.

Across Europe since 2000, four managers have started at a new club with their very first game in the Super Cup and, ominously for Frank, none have lasted more than a single season in their job.

The 2004 Super Cup pitted two new managers against one another, as Porto’s Victor Fernández faced Valencia’s Claudio Ranieri. Both were sacked in February of their first season.

In 2016, Jorge Sampaoli kicked off life as Sevilla’s new head coach with a Super Cup defeat and spent only a season in charge, though that was because he was appointed Argentina boss as opposed to being sacked. Then, two years later, Julen Lopetegui went in at Real Madrid after they won the Champions League, so started off with a Super Cup game; he lasted just three months.

You would think Frank will have to do extremely badly not to be given at least one full season at Tottenham, but there will also be some pressure on him to start quickly and maintain the positive feeling that the Europa League trophy has brought to N17.

He faces a unique challenge in his new job, and will do very well to contend with the balancing act that European football requires. If he lasts longer than a season and a half, he’ll already have done better than any other manager debuting in the Champions League before him.

The debate over whether Tottenham should stick by Ange Postecoglou in the wake of Europa League glory is a polarising one. Here, we look at both sides of the argument.

Tottenham Hotspur have just played out one of the most baffling seasons you’re ever likely to see.

They finished the league campaign in 17th, just one place clear of the relegation zone. It was their worst ever finish in the Premier League era and their worst in any top-flight season since 1976-77, when they were last relegated.

But they also won their first trophy in 17 years on a glorious night in Bilbao with a resilient defensive display in the Europa League final, the type of which was almost entirely absent from their whole Premier League campaign.

The thinking before that victory over Manchester United was that the domestic campaign had been so dismal that even silverware would not be enough to save manager Ange Postecoglou. Widespread reports suggested the decision to sack him had already been made.

But the jubilant scenes at the final whistle in Spain and the trophy parade in London have changed the narrative. Many who were convinced Postecoglou was the wrong man for the job now believe he has earned the right to keep it.

Chairman Daniel Levy has been left with a difficult decision to make: sack the man who has just ended Spurs’ trophy drought, or stick with someone who oversaw a historically bad Premier League campaign?

So, what should he do? Here, we make the case for and against a change in the dugout.

The Case for Sacking Postecoglou

The reasons to get rid of Postecoglou are based around the pretty simple assertion that the team has moved backwards under him. There has been little evidence he is capable of building a Tottenham side who can compete – as they did consistently under Mauricio Pochettino – at the top end of the Premier League.

His football succeeded in Australia, Japan and Scotland, but flaws have been exposed in the harsh world of top-flight football in England. Tottenham scored a hell of a lot of goals under him – 64 in the Premier League this season to be precise, which was as many as fourth-placed Chelsea and more than 12 teams – but they shipped goals and chances far too easily.

Only the three relegated teams and Wolves conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than Spurs (63), while only the bottom three allowed their opponents a higher expected goals total than them (64.4 xG). Based on their defensive displays, they fully deserved to finish 17th.

Much of what Postecoglou has espoused throughout his time at Tottenham has centred around the idea that football should be enjoyable to watch. “Are you not entertained?” he asked Sky Sports following his side’s 4-3 League Cup quarter-final win over United in December, a game in which Spurs had led 3-0 but very nearly threw away.

Approaching matches that way was fine while Spurs were winning, and during his 10-match unbeaten start to life in England at the beginning of 2023-24, he was seen as a breath of fresh air. He won himself a lot of admirers among a fanbase who had grown tired of watching the football of José Mourinho and Antonio Conte.

But when opponents figured Postecoglou’s Spurs out and the gung-ho tactics led to results nosediving, he still stuck to his guns, refusing to change the way his side played, whatever the circumstances. His doing so and then saying things like “it’s just who we are” became a stick to beat him with. And rightly so.

Spurs remained entertaining through his two seasons in the Premier League, but in 2024-25 they were fun to watch for the wrong reasons. They continued to score reliably but were just as consistently outscored, and the damning numbers speak for themselves.

They suffered more defeats (22) than any other team that avoided relegation from the Premier League ever has. Their total of 38 points was Tottenham’s lowest in the Premier League era, and would have been low enough to see them relegated in four other seasons, while in three more they would have been saved only on goal difference.

They were very, very fortunate that the three promoted sides proved to be the worst trio of relegated teams, in points terms, the Premier League has ever seen. That meant relegation was never really a genuine possibility and Postecoglou was able to focus fully on the Europa League, something he has admitted he did since the season ended.

But make no mistake, what everyone saw was a team not cut out for the level they were playing at. Spurs were outplayed and beaten by plenty of teams they have much greater resources than and were expected to beat. They alone were responsible for two of the six (33.3%) away wins that relegated trio Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton recorded, for example.

Postecoglou complained for much of the season about the injuries his side suffered, and there’s no doubt the many absences had a big impact on results. Through the middle part of the season, they were consistently without a full team of players.

But there is also the question of whether Postecoglou’s insistence on playing his relentlessly high-intensity brand of football was in some way to blame for their injuries. His players were asked to put in more physical effort than most of the rest of the top flight, with Tottenham ranking either second or third in the Premier League this season for distance covered (111.5 km per 90), sprints (167.5 per 90), off-ball runs (159.0 per 90) and pressures in the final third (55.2 per 90). This is a topic we covered in more depth during the height of their injury crisis earlier this year.

Questions over whether Postecoglou’s football is suited to the demands of the Premier League alongside a European schedule have therefore persisted throughout the season. If – as evidence suggests – he is not willing to budge on his tactics in league games (he did adapt in the Europa League but has spoken openly about his view that cup competitions deserve to be approached differently), then there is little to suggest he can take this Spurs team back to the upper part of the Premier League. They are just too easy to beat.

The case for sacking him, in its simplest terms, is that Tottenham Hotspur simply cannot continue with a manager who has just overseen such a terrible season, because if 2025-26 is even half as bad, it will still be a long way off acceptable.

The Case Against Sacking Postecoglou

Sure, the numbers don’t look good, but that Europa League trophy certainly does, doesn’t it?

That is the crux of the argument for keeping Postecoglou in charge: he delivered Tottenham’s first trophy in 17 years and their first in Europe for 41. Against all odds, he proved that this club, for so long underachievers and nearly men, can, after all, win silverware.

And what a way to do it, too, after his promise all the way back in September that “I always win things in my second year.” How about that for a way to convince the players and fans to believe in him?

It could have been the perfect “mic drop” moment, as their goalscoring hero in the Europa League final, Brennan Johnson, said after the game in Bilbao.

But it could also be the start of something else; further reason to get behind him in the stands at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and, more importantly, in the boardroom, too.

If Postecoglou is backed with budget for transfers and wages to match the teams against whom Spurs want to be competing – something that Pochettino was not given – it is worth giving him the chance to try and bridge the gap to the upper echelons of the Premier League.

There has arguably been enough proof that Postecoglou’s Tottenham aren’t a million miles off doing so. There were some performances last season – in the 4-0 win at Manchester City and the 1-0 home League Cup semi-final win over Liverpool in particular – that showed the ceiling of this team is very high indeed. With a few additions to the squad, they should be able to produce that level of performance more often.

There is also no ignoring how Postecoglou adapted to difficult circumstances in the later part of the season to guide Spurs to Europa League glory. If the criticism of him had been that he was too steadfastly wedded to his principles, then surely he deserves credit for doing precisely the opposite and winning a trophy doing it.

In the final four games of their Europa League run, Spurs conceded only one goal, a deflected effort late on in the first leg of the semi-final against Bodø/Glimt when they were already three goals up. They had no more than 41.7% possession in any of those games and won every one. It was nothing like ‘Angeball‘ as we had come to know it.

They weren’t carved open time and again, and their opponents didn’t find it easy to create chances. In the final, United only really threatened from balls into the box from deep or from set-pieces.

That successful run might just hint at Postecoglou changing his ways. Perhaps he has learned that sticking religiously to his idea of playing isn’t the way to get results in this job, even if it was at previous clubs, and that he may need to ask less physically of his players to keep them fit.

He might have said in so many words that he would never change or negotiate on his principles on more than one occasion since joining Spurs, but the last few months suggest that may no longer be the case. Perhaps he can be adaptable and, dare we say it, pragmatic, after all.

The final thing to say in Postecoglou’s favour is an intangible that cannot be underestimated, and that is the positive feeling around the club; the belief in what he is doing.

With 90 painstakingly poor quality minutes in Bilbao, the entire narrative around Tottenham was flipped on its head. Despair at the constant defeats this season and years of failure previously made way for the euphoria of finally winning a trophy, and with it, Postecoglou earned legendary status among the fans. He proved Spurs don’t have to be brittle and beatable. They don’t have to be ‘Spursy‘.

The players clearly love him, and a few have openly stated their hope that he stays, so why disrupt that feeling in the hope – and that’s all it would be – that there is something better out there?

For all the data that suggests Spurs weren’t up to scratch this season, for those defending him, there is only one stat for 2024-25 that matters. Trophies won: one.

Essentially, the debate can be boiled down to data versus vibes. Stark numbers that paint a picture of a truly dreadful league season against the sheer, unbridled joy of winning a major European trophy for the first time in a generation.

It’s a difficult decision that Levy has been left with, and the above arguments show there is no definitively correct answer.

Still, it’s one the fans hope their chairman can get right.

Having endured terrible domestic seasons, Tottenham and Manchester United face off for European silverware and UEFA Champions League qualification. We look ahead to Wednesday’s huge game with our UEFA Europa League final prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Manchester United: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer is struggling to split Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, making Spurs slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%).

Spurs have already beaten Man Utd three times in all competitions this season. The only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single campaign were Everton in 1985-86.

Ruben Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of Man Utd, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).

A mid-May meeting between the sides sat 16th and 17th in the Premier League table does not usually arouse much interest.

But Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final at San Mamés, Bilbao, has taken on extraordinary importance for both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Having not lifted a trophy of any kind since Juande Ramos oversaw their victory over Chelsea in the 2008 EFL Cup final, Spurs are desperate for silverware.

Ange Postecoglou has cut a thorny figure for much of the season and his future remains far from certain, but ending Tottenham’s drought would make it all worthwhile for the Australian, who told reporters in September: “I always win things in my second year.”

Ruben Amorim has been less bullish, describing his United team as the worst side in the club’s storied history.

Wednesday’s victors will seal UEFA Champions League qualification for 2025-26, with the financial rewards giving Amorim the chance to turbo-boost his United rebuild.

The losers will be left to face the uncomfortable reality of having endured their worst campaign in modern history.

This will be the sixth all-English final in the history of UEFA club competitions, with no other country providing as many finals between two of their clubs (Italy and Spain have had five apiece).

It will be the third of those to involve Tottenham, who beat Wolves 3-2 on aggregate in the 1972 UEFA Cup final and lost 2-0 to Liverpool in the 2019 Champions League showpiece.

And since the Europa League’s 2009 rebrand, this will be the fourth final to be contested between two sides from the same nation, after 2011 (Porto 1-0 Braga), 2012 (Atlético Madrid 3-0 Athletic Club) and 2019 (Chelsea 4-1 Arsenal).

Victory here would make them just the second English club to win the UEFA Cup/Europa League three times, after Liverpool, with only Sevilla (seven) winning it more than three times.

However, they will have to overcome a host of injury problems if they are to end their long wait for glory, having lost creative midfielders Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall. Kulusevski (11) and Maddison (10) are two of three Spurs players in double figures for assists in all competitions this season, along with Son Heung-min (11).

Son has provided Postecoglou with a boost, at least, having made his first start since recovering from a foot injury in Friday’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa.

Son has 11 goals in all competitions this campaign, with only Brennan Johnson (17), Dominic Solanke (15) and Maddison (12) netting more often for Spurs. Many of Solanke’s best moments have come in this competition, having scored the winning penalty in the quarter-finals versus Eintracht Frankfurt and in both legs of their semi-final against Bodø/Glimt.

Solanke has also scored in each of his last four games against United in all competitions (five goals). Since Sir Alex Ferguson left the Red Devils in 2013, only one player has scored in five or more consecutive appearances against them, with Mohamed Salah doing so in six from January 2021 to March 2023.

Much of the focus in the build-up to this final has been on Postecoglou, the first Australian manager to reach a major European final.

The last time a new nation had a manager reach a major European final for the first time was when Norwegian Ole Gunnar Solskjær lost the 2021 Europa League final with United, versus Villarreal.

In contrast to their drab league form, United have had a thrilling route to the final, with their stunning 7-6 aggregate win over Lyon in the quarter-finals a particular highlight.

The Red Devils have scored 35 goals in this season’s Europa League; the only sides to score more in a single UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign are Borussia Mönchengladbach in 1972-73 (36), Porto in 2010-11 (37) and Chelsea in 2018-19 (36) – the latter duo won the trophy.

United also remain the only unbeaten side in major European competitions this season, winning nine and drawing five of their 14 Europa League games.

Head coach Amorim has repeatedly said that lifting the trophy will not solve United’s long-term issues, but he may need the credit that a victory would give him, having managed just 0.92 points per game in the Premier League since taking charge.

Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of United, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).

Forty-year-old Amorim also could become only the third manager to win a major European title with an English club while aged 40 or younger, after Howard Kendall (1984-85 Cup Winners’ Cup with Everton, 38) and Gianluca Vialli (1997-98 Cup Winners’ Cup with Chelsea, 33).

If Man Utd are to triumph, it will surely be down to Bruno Fernandes to inspire them. The United skipper has the most total goal involvements of any player in Europa League history with 46, and his 19 assists is also a competition-high.

This season, only Lyon’s Rayan Cherki (12) has been involved in more Europa League goals than Fernandes (seven goals, four assists). The only player to be involved in more for an English club in a single campaign in the competition was Olivier Giroud for Chelsea in 2018-19 (11 goals, four assists).

An end-to-end final is expected, which could just suit the likes of Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Højlund.

Only Athletic Club (30) have had more shots following high turnovers than both United (23) and Tottenham (22) in this season’s Europa League, and the Red Devils are also joint top in the 2024-25 tournament for direct attacks (32, level with Lyon).

Tottenham vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

This will be Man Utd’s ninth major European final, with only Liverpool (15) reaching more among English clubs.

However, they have failed to win three of their last four such finals – versus Barcelona in the 2008-09 and 2010-11 Champions League, and Villarreal in the 2020-21 Europa League – winning the other 2-0 against Ajax in the 2016-17 Europa League.

They also have a dismal recent record against Spurs.

Tottenham have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the EFL Cup (4-3 at home).

The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a season were Everton in 1985-86.

United are also winless in their last six meetings with Tottenham in all competitions (two draws, four defeats). The Red Devils have never gone seven without a win against Spurs before.

However, a more positive omen could be that the teams have only met once previously in major European competition, in the 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup last 16. United progressed 4-3 on aggregate over two legs under Matt Busby.

Tottenham vs Manchester United: Europa League Final Prediction

Many expect a close-run final, and incredibly, the Opta supercomputer is struggling to split the teams. It is currently making Tottenham the slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%), ahead of United (49.7%).

Spurs won inside 90 minutes in 37.5% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with United doing so in 35.2%. The remaining 27.3% went to extra-time, and possibly penalties.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

Ahead of Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, we identify seven key elements that could be decisive in Bilbao.

All eyes turn to San Mamés in Bilbao on Wednesday night as two of England’s biggest clubs compete in the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League final. It’s Tottenham vs Manchester United, not only for a piece of major European silverware, but also a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League.

Both teams have endured thoroughly disappointing domestic campaigns, with the two clubs already confirming their worst Premier League finishes of all time. This is a game that could mean they finish their season on a high, however.

Here, we’ve outlined seven facets that may impact whether the Europa League trophy returns to Old Trafford or heads to north London…

Fourth Time Lucky for United?

Manchester United have lost competitive games against 12 different opponents in 2024-25, but they must be particularly sick of facing Tottenham.

Spurs have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the League Cup (4-3 at home).

The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single season were Everton in 1985-86.

Making a strong start will be key to potential United success. Across their three encounters already in 2024-25, Spurs have taken the lead inside 15 minutes in each game.

United haven’t really given themselves a chance, either. They haven’t led for a single second across any of their three matches versus Spurs this season. Over a total of 295 minutes and 41 seconds of playing time in these fixtures (including added time), Tottenham have led for 226 minutes and 42 seconds – that’s 90.2% of game time.

They have come from behind to win just six of their 58 games in 2024-25, with four of those in front of a raucous Old Trafford crowd, and two coming against the lowest-ranked Premier League sides (Southampton and Ipswich).

Even if Spurs take the lead again in this final, and despite United’s relatively poor record at turning games around in 2024-25, it won’t mean it’s game over.

Just four clubs have dropped more points from winning positions than Tottenham (26) in the Premier League this season, while only Brentford (52) top that tally in the competition since the start of 2023-24 when Ange Postecoglou arrived at the club.

Man Utd have never gone seven successive matches without a win against Spurs, and they’ve also never lost four consecutive meetings with them. Victory in Bilbao on Wednesday would be the perfect way to end that unwelcome sequence, even if they have to do it the hard way.

Whoever Wins the Europa League Will Create History

Both Man Utd and Spurs have had historically dismal league campaigns.

Based on three points for a win, 2024-25 is already guaranteed to yield Man Utd’s lowest points tally in a league season since at least 1973-74, and should they fail to beat Aston Villa on the final day, it will be their worst total since 1930-31 (29).

Spurs have won just 38 points from 37 league matches in 2024-25, and unless they win on the final day of the season versus Brighton, it’ll be their second-worst league campaign in history after 1914-15 (36 points, based on three points for a win). They’ve now lost 25 games in all competitions this term, their joint-most defeats in a single season in their history along with 1991-92 (25).

Going into the final day of the Premier League campaign this weekend, United and Spurs sit in 16th and 17th place respectively in the table – the lowest positions possible without being relegated.

Had it not been for the three promoted sides struggling to win points after coming up from the Championship, the unthinkable may have happened and one of these huge English clubs could have dropped into the second tier.

But now, some redemption is possible for one of them, as they will end the season with a European trophy and secure a place in the Champions League for 2025-26.

Whoever wins the Europa League final will set a new record for being the lowest-ranked side in their domestic league campaign to win a major European trophy.

None of the previous 177 winners of an edition of the European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Inter-Cities Fairs Cup/Europa League, the Cup Winners’ Cup or the Conference League have ever finished lower than 14th in their domestic league that season – a record currently held by West Ham United when they won the 2022-23 Conference League and finished 14th in the Premier League.

In this competition (including when it was the UEFA Cup), it’s Inter Milan who hold the record for the lowest league finish while winning the trophy. They finished 13th in Serie A in 1993-94 but also beat Austrian side SV Casino Salzburg 2-0 over two legs in the UEFA Cup final.

Where Will Tottenham’s Creativity Come From?

Under Postecoglou, Spurs have clearly had plenty of problems, but nobody can accuse them of having any issues with creating chances. In the Premier League this season, despite being set for a frankly unthinkable 17th-place finish, only four teams have scored more non-penalty goals than them (61) and only six teams have generated more non-penalty expected goals (55.3 xG).

But they head into the final in Bilbao facing a unique problem: all three of their best players in the advanced midfield position are out through injury.

In James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, Spurs are without two of the best creators in their squad, with those two ranking first (78) and third (50) for open-play chances created in all competitions this season. While Lucas Bergvall doesn’t play the final ball anything like as much as Maddison and Kulusevski, in his first season in high-level European football he became a key player for Spurs in the last few months in particular with how he helped progress play through the centre of the pitch. His absence is most certainly going to be felt, too.

Spurs will line up without all three of them for only the third time this season, having done so in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth in March (when both Bergvall and Maddison came off the bench) and in Friday night’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa. Working out where their creativity will come from in the absence of those three players is a tricky issue to resolve.

A likely midfield three of Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur and Pape Sarr will protect the defence and keep the ball well enough but there isn’t much in the way of vision and passing to unlock the United defence.

Spurs may therefore pose their biggest threat best on the transition, with pace in abundance whoever starts in the front three. Meanwhile, right-back Pedro Porro, who ranks fourth in the squad for assists in all competitions this season (nine), will need to get forward at every opportunity. The return of captain Son Heung-min to fitness will also help, with Son leading the way in the squad in open play for both assists (11, level with Kulusevski) and xG assisted (9.5).

Whether that will be enough could have a huge impact on who wins this final.

Can United Be More Clinical in Front of Goal?

European finals are not typically decided by much.

In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund last season followed four consecutive finals decided by 1-0 results. In the Europa League, three of the last four finals have gone to penalties. And all three of the Conference League finals to date have been decided by one-goal margins.

These are tight, finely-balanced matches, often determined by small moments. That’s why clinical finishing is crucial, and the data suggests Tottenham have the personnel best equipped to capitalise on those fine margins.

The two sides have had wildly different fortunes in front of goal this season. In the Premier League, Spurs’ shot conversion rate of 12.8% is the sixth highest in the division. United’s is way down at 8.4%, the second lowest behind only Southampton, who are one of the poorest teams in the competition’s history. For context, the competition average for the season is 11.3%.

Excluding own goals, Spurs have scored 60 times from an xG total of 57.7 in the Premier League. That means they’ve scored 2.3 more goals than expected, a positive enough differential to put them seventh highest in the league.

Conversely, United have scored just 40 times (excluding own goals) from an xG total of 50.5. That’s an underperformance of 10.5 – only Crystal Palace (-13.9) have performed worse in front of goal.

Even if you add in Europa League numbers – where Manchester United have found scoring a lot easier – the Red Devils are still in the negative column for their xG differential (-7.9). Spurs still perform above expected (+6.1).

Given the top-line numbers, this won’t be particularly surprising, but of Manchester United players to have taken more than 25 shots in the league this season, only Amad Diallo (7 goals from 4.3 xG) has scored more than his underlying chances suggest he ‘should’ have done. Spurs have five players who’ve done that.

Granted, two of those players in Maddison and Kulusevski won’t be available for this game. But Son, despite a disappointing campaign to date, is certainly capable of producing high-quality moments. The South Korean is one of those rare players who has consistently outperformed his xG over the course of his career, with an exceptional ability to finish with either foot. Brennan Johnson – Spurs’ top scorer in the league – is another who’s put his chances away with impressive efficiency.

With an out-of-sorts Rasmus Højlund expected to lead the line, and the whole team generally misfiring in attack, it just doesn’t feel like Man Utd have the same profile in front of goal.

Bruno Fernandes: The Europa League King

Manchester United have become reliant on Bruno Fernandes since he signed from Sporting CP five and a half years ago. That reliance has arguably grown season by season, and he’ll prove absolutely key to any potential United success in this final.

The Europa League is his competition. No other player can really stake a claim to have impressed more in the competition since it began in 2009 following decades as the UEFA Cup.

Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than Fernandes (27), but it’s the Portuguese who leads the all-time competition rankings since 2009 for assists (19) and total goal involvements (46).

Dries Mertens – who has played 16 more games in the Europa League than the Man Utd captain – is the only man to have created more chances in the competition than Fernandes, both overall (185 vs 158) and from open play (129 vs 110).

Fernandes is a big-game player, so it doesn’t come as much surprise that his record in the knockout stages of the Europa League is exceptional.

He’s been involved in 32 goals in 33 knockout-stage appearances, again more than any other player, with 19 goals (second most) and 13 assists (the most). He also leads the way for total chances created in Europa League knockout matches (94).

He captained United in the 2021 final against Villarreal but failed to have much impact, not creating a single chance for his teammates in 120 minutes before scoring his penalty in the shootout. That eventually ended in defeat, so Fernandes will be out to make amends on Wednesday.

A Tale of Two (Erratic) Goalkeepers?

André Onana and Guglielmo Vicario are coming to the end of their second seasons in England, and it’s fair to describe them both as having had a mixed time of things since moving to the Premier League.

Onana has consistently made mistakes of all sorts for United, while Vicario struggled terribly last season at set-pieces. They are both very good goalkeepers, though, and have the potential to be match-winners or match-losers in Bilbao.

Among players at Premier League teams in 2024-25, only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen (six) has been responsible for more errors leading to goals in all competitions than Onana (five). Some of that is down to his erratic shot-stopping, which can be very, very good or woeful, but he also isn’t helped by having defenders ahead of him who aren’t good enough on the ball to receive some of his riskier passes. He is rightly very confident in his passing ability, but that can lead to him playing passes that his teammates don’t expect or are not ready for.

Errors are less common for Vicario – he has committed four fewer in his two seasons at Spurs (one) than Onana has in 2024-25 alone – but he also hasn’t always inspired total confidence. It was a consistent sight, particularly last season, to see him crowded out at corners, letting in a goal and then remonstrating with the referee for a free-kick that was never going to be awarded. Also, he can look uncomfortable and unconvincing with his passing.

However, he regularly makes huge saves to deny near-certain goals, and Spurs missed him terribly when he was out injured. He ranks among the best Premier League goalkeepers for goals prevented through their saves in all competitions this season, having prevented more than four goals.

The goalkeepers could make or break their respective team’s chances of glory.

Can Spurs’ ‘New’ Defence Stand Strong?

Tottenham’s defence isn’t ‘new’ in terms of personnel – the first-choice back four and goalkeeper have remained the same for Postecoglou’s whole Spurs tenure – but it is new in that they are now, seemingly at least, actually quite solid.

They haven’t been anything like solid in the Premier League, where they have all but given up for weeks now. But when Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie have started together ahead of Vicario in the knockout stages of the Europa League, Spurs have looked uncharacteristically formidable at the back.

There has been less of the all-action, high-pressing, gung-ho Angeball football for which Postecoglou is known, and instead a more considered, defensive-minded and controlled game (this is something we’ve covered in more depth here).

Spurs conceded just two goals in their four quarter-final and semi-final games, and in those matches recorded genuinely impressive defensive numbers, with three of their best four xG against totals in any competition all season. In their two legs against Bodø/Glimt, they conceded chances worth just 0.26 xG and 0.43 xG, while at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, their opponents generated only 0.36 xG.

With their first-choice back five starting, and a better structure in place to ensure the defence is not exposed as much as we have grown used to seeing during Postecoglou’s reign, Tottenham are much, much tougher to break down.