A triumphant victory over Coventry on Monday gave Tottenham Hotspur its first win of the Premier League season, doubling its goal total and getting the club out of the relegation places (woohoo). Ironically, it was not exactly the best on-pitch performance by the team this season, but it is the one that yielded the best result, so complaints are minimal this week.
Unfortunately, all of those positive vibes might be short lived, as this weekend brings a trip to perhaps the least happy place on earth. It has been quite some time since Spurs have won a league fixture at Stamford Bridge, and this Chelsea squad enters Saturday in the top four with third-best title odds on the young season, bolstered by the lack of European competition.
With Tottenham still finding its footing (two months into the campaign…) and still getting players like James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski up to full fitness, this is not the ideal time for this derby. However, there really is never a great time for Chelsea away, so might as well get this over with. Given a loss is the expectation, this weekend does offer the chance for a pleasant surprise, as unlikely as that would be.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, October 24
Time: 12:30 pm ET, 5:30 pm UK
Location: Stamford Bridge, London
TV: NBCSN/Peacock (US), Sky Sports Main Event (UK)
So, yea. Spurs have lost home and away to Chelsea in each of the past three seasons and have not won in their last eight trips to the Bridge in the league. A result last May would have secured safety, but Richarlison’s goal was not enough to overcome a 2-0 deficit. The last time Tottenham found points at this venue was in Handshakegate in August 2022, with a late pull of the hair before a Harry Kane equalizer.
Optimistically ready for more goals!
Expected goals are not everything, but even the eye test shows that Tottenham could have/should have scored more often in the recent outings leading up to the Coventry match. Perhaps the argument is that this squad lacks some of the finishing ability of past Spurs attackers…but then Monday night saw the home side score three times from outside the box.
The Chelsea defense has only allowed a single goal in its past two matches, but conceded at least two in every match ahead of the international break. The Blues are third in goals scored but bottom seven in goals allowed, meaning this might end up with a lot of action given Xabi Alonso’s counterpress, as his squad seeks to win the ball back and hit in transition.
Though three goals against a promoted side is not earth-shattering, I do think it was encouraging to see that happening without Savio available and with Dominic Solanke still trying to justify his place. Roberto De Zerbi has yet to have his theoretical top options all available up front, meaning this team has certainly not hit its ceiling. The components are there to take advantage of this defense, though it will require strong finishing once again.
Pessimistically back at the Bridge
Certainly the biggest worry is action going the other way, as few teams have been more prolific than Chelsea this season. 5-1 and 2-0 outings coming out of the break are worrying scorelines, and the three home matches so far have yielded 11 goals. Meanwhile, Spurs’ clean sheets against Forest and Everton have dried up, with goals conceded in three straight and surely more to come on Saturday.
Obviously, Cole Palmer is the threat, and will occupy a lot of attention from the back line. I am curious to see what personnel De Zerbi chooses to deploy, recognizing that the home side will try to attack down the wings and stretch the defense, showing a bit more fluidity in formation as of late when it comes to deploying a back three/wingbacks vs. more traditional fullbacks.
This venue leads to as many mental challenges as tactical ones for Tottenham, and this does feel like a tough time to be taking on the Blues given their recent form. Mistakes still happen a bit too often in this defense, and the Chelsea attack is fully capable of taking advantage if given a little space in the box, as both United and Coventry did. The margins are very thin in this sort of fixture, and it still feels like the defense is not fully reliable.
Realistically accepting reality
I would not go as far as calling this match house money, as losing to a bitter rival is never enjoyable — nor acceptable — though supporters likely understand the odds heading into the weekend. Still, a draw is not completely unreasonable, especially as the visitors continue to build up their attack and keep getting some of the key pieces back into the lineup.
Tottenham must show composure and discipline against the in-form home side, especially in this environment. But when opportunity arises to make a push, especially in the early stages as has been the trend this season, Spurs must be ambitious and lethal. All-out chaos is probably not ideal, but some risk-taking is needed to steal a result at the Bridge.