The former CEO and managing director of Premier League clubs believes Leeds United would be far less impacted by relegation than the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United but the drop would delay 49ers Enterprises' plans.
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Christian Purslow, formerly the CEO of Aston Villa and the managing director at both Liverpool and Chelsea, has been assessing the prospect of relegation for clubs fighting to avoid finishing 18th or below. With Wolves and Burnley almost certain to fall through the top flight's trap door, the final relegation place is currently occupied by West Ham on 28 points. Nottingham Forest sit just above the Hammers on goal difference, with Spurs one point ahead and Leeds three points clear in 15th.
Speaking on The Football Boardroom podcast he co-hosts with journalist Henry Winter, Purslow highlighted the fact that no one involved in the deal that saw Spurs borrow hundreds of millions to finance their £1bn-plus stadium was ever contemplating Championship football or its associated revenues. The idea of selling Spurs, he believes, would go out the window if they dropped into the second tier, until such a time as they returned to the Premier League.
"None of those bankers when that deal was done would have assumed that the borrower Tottenham Hotspur would ever be in the Championship, where revenues weren't £600m, £700m, but where revenues were £300m to £350m. Nobody realistically contemplated a relegation scenario where we're not talking about the difference between fourth and 15th place - £20m to £30m, we're talking about maybe £200m, £250m. Now what I'm looking at is this summer in a scenario of relegation, without doubt, those banks will want to see some equity invested by the owners. So not just not selling, but having to write a big check. That's what these owners will be thinking about today."
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When it comes to West Ham, Purslow pointed out that the club's recent accounts made it clear players will need to be sold, potentially alongside a serious injection of cash from shareholders, whether or not they are in the Premier League. Relegation would obviously only worsen the financial situation for the Hammers.
But while no one in the Leeds United fan base wants to hear that their club would be 'least impacted' by the drop, or even consider the idea of an immediate return to the Championship, Purslow says 49ers Enterprises' acceptance of that possibility should safeguard them from financial meltdown.
"I do think that the ownership group at Leeds' approach to coming back up last season and since has been quite cautious," he said.
"They have gotten into a situation where they are running the club with a base case assumption that they might be re relegated - to give it a terrible media name as if they are a yo-yo club. They stuck largely with the Championship squad. They stuck with Daniel Farke, who I think most people in the game didn't expect to last the full season. Let's face it, this season we had had two prior years where all three teams coming up have gone back down. So any prudent manager, responsible chief exec at Leeds would say we have to allow for that possibility. And I think therefore the only positive is that in terms of their investment in the wage bill, their investment in the playing squad has been such that it won't be as damaging."
Yet relegation never comes without a cost and alongside the potential loss of talented players, new stars who have become popular with the fanbase and potentially some of those so instrumental in promotion, Leeds could find themselves on the back foot off the pitch again. Just like Nottingham Forest, Purslow's view is that Leeds would have to delay their Elland Road redevelopment plans in the event of relegation. "It wouldn't surprise me if it got mothballed for another year if they go down," he added.