Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and sees value in backing Man Utd at Liverpool.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Ange Postecoglou's arrival at Nottingham Forest came with big promises of high tempo, pressing and attacking football but so far what we've seen is a defence creaking under the pressure of playing Postecoglou's style. Forest are leaking goals at a rate of 2.1 per 90 minutes since the Aussie took charge.
So my eyes are drawn to the anytime goalscorer market for Chelsea. Enter Alejandro Garnacho at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
Chelsea under Enzo Maresca are looking to use wide players more than Garnacho was utilised at Manchester United - here, he can stretch defences and find more one-vs-one opportunities. Garnacho has already shown glimpses in his early appearances that he could be the next player to flourish away from the Old Trafford spotlight.
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Given the defensive issues at Forest and Garnacho's knack for getting in the right place at the right time, he looks great value to score with Sky Bet in a game that should sail past the over 2.5 goals line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Brighton vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm
Being ahead of a curve is the name of the game when trying to consistently beat the market. And betting against Brighton before it becomes trendy to do so is very much a tactic on my radar.
Yes, they are still getting results. But scratch beneath the surface with both the eye test and the underlying metrics and this is a team that isn't functioning anywhere near the levels the market seems to think they are. Brighton's defensive numbers are the biggest worry. They've conceded an average of 1.5 expected goals per game over the last 14 Premier League matches - that's the worst per-90 figure of any ever-present team during that period.
In full: All the 2025/26 Premier League fixtures
Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool one of 27 games on Sky before Christmas
Their pressing structure, once so cohesive and suffocating, is now easier to play through - and their high-risk, high-reward build-up play is not seeing the returns it once did. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 19 Premier League games, too.
The fact we can get a team as reliable and dangerous as Newcastle at 10/11 on the draw no bet makes this best-bet-of-the-weekend material.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Newcastle draw no bet (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm
Every so often in the Premier League, a fixture becomes more than just three points. There's six points on offer here.
Both clubs know a win shifts momentum, belief and in many cases season trajectories. And these 'six-pointers' very often produce open, high-intensity, attacking football - something which isn't portrayed by the market.
The last 33 'six pointers' in the Premier League - a subjective definition of the fixture - has seen an average of 2.8 goals scored. When assessing the odds, the 6/5 being dangled by Sky Bet on over 2.5 goals being scored is hard to resist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (6/5 with Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
Both sides have quietly made a habit of turning this fixture into a cure for insomnia. The last nine meetings between the two have all landed for under 2.5 goals backers with just a measly total of 10 goals scored in those nine meetings.
And Palace are fast becoming a friend of the under-goals backer with Oliver Glasner building such a watertight defensive unit. Across their last 17 games in all competitions the average match goals sits at just 1.85 per 90.
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The market hasn't quite caught up with just how consistently dull this fixture has been. Under 2.5 goals should be shorter than it is at 10/11 with Sky Bet and represents the best angle into what looks set to be a tight, cagey contest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Manchester City vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Jake O'Brien vs Jeremy Doku is shaping up to be a mismatch and one punters should be looking to profit from.
If O'Brien emerges from this duel with clean shorts, his shoes on the right feet and a clean sheet, I'll tip my betting cap to him. But I'd rather side with reality and back him to get carded at 7/2 with Sky Bet, a price that screams value.
Doku isn't just a livewire, he's a walking yellow card generator. The Belgian winger has been fouled 2.43 times per 90 in the Premier League this season and he is the reason why opposition right-backs and right centre-backs have picked up a card in six of City's seven games he's featured in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Sunderland vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
The numbers and the eye test both agree: Wolves are far better than their results suggest.
There's a case to be made that Vitor Pereria's team have far more in the tank than the league table currently shows.
Wolves have taken just two points from seven games but the expected points, based on their underlying metrics provided by Opta, show they should have seven points in the bag.
That type of gulf usually evens itself out across a season and it is something to profit from.
The chances are being created in attack and restricted to a good level in defence, so it's just the finishing touch of the Wolves strikers and very efficient finishing of opposition strikers that has been costing them in what is a fine-margin sport. When a little bit of regression to the mean kicks in, results will follow.
Starting here, where they are 21/10 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Wolves to win (21/10 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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Arsenal have only conceded three goals in 10 games in all competitions - they are shipping the fewest goals per game of any team in Europe's major leagues. We shouldn't be surprised though as Mikel Arteta has been overseeing what has been one of the best defensive teams we've ever seen in the Premier League for three seasons now.
That's why backing them to win matches along with the under 3.5 goals angle thrown into the mix at a juicier price is the smart way to boost Arsenal's outright win price here from 1/2 to 6/5 with Sky Bet.
They dominate territory, limit chaos and once they get their noses in front, they manage games like a team with title-winning maturity. Across their last 18 wins in all competitions, 16 have landed for punters who have added the under 3.5 goal line into the equation. It should land again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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The international break can be a problem for some managers - not Unai Emery.
Aston Villa are unbeaten in the last 10 Premier League games after an international break, winning eight. Whatever Emery does in this fiddly time for managers is working wonders.
Meanwhile, Spurs' encouraging start to life under Thomas Frank has been somewhat undermined by a pair of disappointing results in their last two Premier League home games after being battered by Bournemouth and only drawing with Wolves courtesy of a last-minute equaliser. It means Spurs have won just three of their 17 Premier League home games since November last year.
Villa are an obvious play on the draw no bet at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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The markets haven't quite woken up to just how sharp Amad Diallo has looked recently, nor how well he's linking up with Bryan Mbeumo, who's become his perfect foil in United's new-look attack.
There's a real chemistry brewing here.
Amad and Mbeumo might not have been the attacking duo many expected to define this United side, but their movement and understanding has been electric and could just be the catalyst for Ruben Amorim.
At 9/2 to score with Sky Bet, the value's there on Amad.
And against a Liverpool side that's been anything but watertight down their left flank, this looks the perfect storm for the United hotshot to make a big statement.
Liverpool will, as always, dominate territory and possession but that only increases the space Amad can exploit on the counter. Pair that with his on-field connection with Mbeumo and United have the tools to create more problems for Liverpool, who do look short at 4/7 with Sky Bet for maximum points.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
West Ham vs Brentford, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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West Ham are in 'season-defining' territory already.
The Hammers are winless in eight home Premier League games, a run that played a huge part in Graham Potter losing his job. It's their longest winless run since moving to the London Stadium and, in its current miserable guise, the place feels a world away from Upton Park.
When you're knee-deep in a relegation scrap, you don't need talk of 'underlying numbers' - you need street-fighting survival football. Nuno Espirito Santo brings exactly that.
Call it what you want - reactive, pragmatic and at times boring - but it's effective when backs are against the wall. West Ham need points and Nuno will bag them plenty based on his body of work. The home win looks the call here at 29/20 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
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