Welcome to week 30 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where the subscribers are now leading the way.
For the first time since September, you guys are on top of the table: the early-season pacesetters who lost their way but have clawed their way back to the summit.
Frankly, the thought of being beaten by the subscribers terrifies me.
As much as the thought of being beaten by six-year-old Wilfred? Even more so, actually. At least if Wilfred wins, I can say I was up against a child prodigy, whereas if you lot win… no, I don’t even want to contemplate it.
Still, at least the algorithm’s continuing inconsistencies are of some consolation.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — young Wilfred, a guest subscriber on rotation, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.
We’re awarding three points for each correct scoreline and one point for each correct result. We’re also awarding a bonus point for any “unique” scoreline, so, for example, last week’s guest subscriber Derian, a Chelsea fan from New York, picked up a bonus point because he was the only one to predict West Ham beating Fulham away.
In a challenging week for the rest of us, Derian picked up seven points for the subscribers, with one correct scoreline (Everton 2-0 Burnley) and another three correct results, including that bonus point for West Ham’s victory.
Week 29 is summed up by the fact that five results caught all of us by surprise: Sunderland’s win at Leeds, Wolves’ defeat of Liverpool, Nottingham Forest’s draw at Manchester City, Newcastle’s dramatic last-gasp triumph against Manchester United and (hang on, why did nobody see this coming?) Tottenham’s capitulation at home to Crystal Palace.
It has been that sort of season, especially for me, but I was happy finally to get a correct scoreline with Everton 2-0 Burnley. I expected a bonus point for backing Chelsea to get three points away at Aston Villa, but Derian was wise to it too.
It leaves the subscribers with a slender one-point lead over Wilfred at the top of the table. I am well adrift, having had a torrid run since January, so it’s looking very much like a two-horse race.
This week sees the subscribers’ baton passed to another New Yorker, 43-year-old Liverpool fan Tim. Can he keep their challenge going? No pressure, Tim…
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Manchester United vs Aston Villa, Sunday, 2pm UK/10am ET
Tim says: “I think United v Villa is the match to watch. Both teams are under pressure from Chelsea and Liverpool for the top four. Will one of them rise up and take three points, or will they both struggle just to keep a single point?”
Manchester United 2-2 Aston Villa
Oli says: “Will these two teams still be third and fourth when the music stops in May? I’m more confident in Manchester United right now, particularly with no cup commitments to distract them. Villa have begun to drift a little (one win in six Premier League games) and, although they handled the Thursday-Sunday-Thursday-Sunday schedule superbly in the first half of the season, the impact of their ongoing Europa League commitments threatens to weigh much more heavily now.”
Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa
Oli’s other predictions
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Bournemouth are ninth in the Premier League, on course to match the highest finish in their history, but they will be kicking themselves after allowing precious points to slip through their fingers in the past three matches against West Ham, Sunderland and Brentford. Goals have been harder to come by for them since selling Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City in early January, but Burnley have adopted more of a do-or-die approach in recent weeks — more die than do, sadly — which hints at an open game.
Burnley 1-2 Bournemouth
Sunderland vs Brighton
If Brighton coach Fabian Hurzeler is still frustrated by the amount of time Arsenal’s players spend over their goal kicks, throw-ins, free kicks and corner kicks — and I’m with you on that, Fabian — he might not enjoy this trip to the Stadium of Light. It’s a league-wide epidemic, and Sunderland, such a breath of air in so many other ways this season post-promotion, are among the prime exponents. Their 1-0 win at Leeds last time out was a masterclass in eating up time. Hurzeler had better hope his lads don’t fall behind.
Sunderland 1-0 Brighton
Chelsea vs Newcastle
In a terrible week for English clubs in the Champions League, Newcastle emerged with credit. They were excellent against Barcelona, unfortunate to have a first-leg lead cancelled out by a stoppage-time penalty, and now Eddie Howe must decide whether to go strong away to Chelsea on Saturday or rest players ahead of Wednesday’s second leg in the Camp Nou. Chelsea counterpart Liam Rosenior has a similar dilemma — and with the unforgiving Wednesday-Saturday-Tuesday schedule to contend with — but, 5-2 down to Paris Saint-Germain after the away leg of their Champions League last-16 tie and with a battle to secure a place in next season's competition, he should prioritise Premier League points.
Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle
Arsenal vs Everton
Everton’s away record demands respect, but this is such a great opportunity for Arsenal. Victory on Saturday evening would take them 10 points clear at the top of the table, albeit having played two games more than Manchester City, who visit West Ham immediately afterwards. Arsenal, like Chelsea and City, have that horrible Wednesday-Saturday-Tuesday schedule to contend with. But even more than City, they have the strength in depth to deal with it.
Arsenal 2-0 Everton
West Ham vs Manchester City
City have played nine Premier League games at London Stadium since West Ham moved there in 2016: seven wins, two draws, 28 goals scored, six conceded. That tells you something about their quality over the past decade — and something about West Ham’s struggles to make the place feel like home. But I have a thing about how certain stadiums are totally different atmosphere-wise if you play in them at night, as City will on Saturday. West Ham have had terrible results in evening kick-offs at home this season, but the spirited 1-1 draw with Manchester United last month underlined what I’m getting at. I’ll predict a City win, but it’s going to be a real test. They can’t afford to drift towards Tuesday’s Champions League second leg at home against Real Madrid.
West Ham 1-2 Manchester City
Crystal Palace vs Leeds
Ah, here we are. Out-of-form hosts vs in-form visitors. It is surprising to see — and feels almost indecent to point out — that Palace, after a period of drift, have taken twice as many points (10 to Leeds' five) from the past six games. That illustrates how hard it is for promoted teams, like Leeds, to sustain the kind of results that took them out of the relegation zone. They are still in a dogfight, despite losing just four of their past 16 league games. If they’re going to get the wins they need — and I think they will — it is more likely to happen at Elland Road.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
That highly impressive draw at City last time out was so important for Forest — great for new coach Vitor Pereira to get a point on the board after back-to-back defeats — but they need to start winning games, particularly at home, where they’ve had just three victories out of 14 this season. It’s another very quick turnaround for Forest after a Europa League last-16 first leg on Thursday. They have to try to overcome that apparent disadvantage against a Fulham team who have only Premier League points to play for over the next two months after a limp FA Cup exit last weekend at home to Championship side Southampton.
Nottingham Forest 2-1 Fulham
Liverpool vs Tottenham
As inconsistent and unreliable as Liverpool have been for much of this season, I struggle to see anything other than a home win here. It’s not because of Tottenham’s terrible record at Anfield (four league wins since 1912). It’s because getting a result at Liverpool, even this season, requires a team to dig in and show levels of resilience and fight that appear to be totally beyond this Tottenham side. Igor Tudor was hired last month based on his ability to make an immediate impact. So far, it just isn't happening and, with injuries and suspensions piling up, this one could get ugly for Spurs.
Liverpool 3-0 Tottenham
Brentford vs Wolves
After all the talk of potentially breaking that unwanted record of the worst Premier League season (set by Derby County with just 11 points in 2007-08), Wolves now look like they mean business. Surely (surely) it is too late to avoid relegation, but they have a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon, having moved within three points of second-bottom Burnley. That said, their next three games — indeed, five of their remaining eight games — are away from home. It’s hard to look beyond a Brentford win here.
Brentford 2-0 Wolves