Welcome back to The Athletic’s relegation-battle update, where our data and tactics writers take a weekly look at the key trends behind the scrap for Premier League survival.
While Arsenal could pull away from Manchester City in the race for the title, the tussle at the bottom looks set to go down to the wire, and with Tottenham Hotspur’s position more precarious than ever after their home defeat by Crystal Palace, it has never felt so compelling.
How realistic is a Spurs relegation? Will West Ham United’s newfound momentum propel them out of trouble? Could Leeds United be sucked back into danger? Let The Athletic run through the data.
What has changed since last time?
Quite a lot, but the most attention-grabbing development is that Tottenham, having hovered on the periphery for weeks, have now joined the relegation party in earnest. They are the only side in the division still without a Premier League win in 2026, and the graphic below shows how that miserable form has left them treading drop-zone water. Last Thursday’s 3-1 loss to visitors Crystal Palace means they are now just a point above 18th-placed West Ham.
For the first time since matchweek one, Spurs no longer have that four-point cushion that allowed them to lose without slipping into the bottom three. Compounding matters, they picked up yet another suspension as Micky van de Ven was sent off for hauling back Ismaila Sarr, conceding the penalty that led to Palace’s equaliser.
The Dutch centre-back now misses Sunday’s daunting trip to Liverpool. At least his defensive partner Cristian Romero has completed a four-match suspension, although he is now a doubt after a nasty clash of heads with team-mate Joao Palhinha in their 5-2 Champions League defeat by Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, with worries that both could miss the game at Anfield with concussion.
“Everything is going against us,” said interim Tottenham head coach Igor Tudor after that loss in Spain. It may be about to get a lot worse.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest’s excellent point at Manchester City was crucial in keeping them from dropping into the relegation zone. City were unsurprisingly dominant, but goals from Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson showed the quality in the visitors’ squad. Without that draw, a resurgent West Ham would have leapfrogged Forest in the table after victory over Fulham — which leads us perfectly into…
Who is looking stronger?
Coupled with Tottenham’s slip-and-slide, a notable upturn in form for West Ham saw them reduce their chances of relegation by 23.5 per cent according to Opta’s renowned supercomputer.
Their 1-0 victory at Craven Cottage last time out felt like a statement win for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side, as Jarrod Bowen pounced on a breakdown in communication between goalkeeper Bernd Leno and centre-back Calvin Bassey, laying the ball off for Crysencio Summerville to score.
Though they were fortunate in how that goal came about, the signs are good for West Ham, who are looking more like a Nuno side with each passing week following his early-season appointment. Looking at 2026 alone, their points haul is good enough for ninth place across the Premier League, showing they are playing more like a mid-table side than relegation strugglers.
The Portuguese is famed for his defensively organised, counter-attacking sides; since the start of April last year, no team has completed fewer passes than West Ham, but only three (Arsenal, Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion) have conceded fewer expected goals (xG).
We can see that defensive improvement on the rolling xG ribbon chart below, where, for the first time in over two seasons, West Ham are creating more goalscoring opportunities (blue line) than they are conceding across their latest 10 games.
An encouraging display in the FA Cup to eliminate Brentford kept the good mood going on Monday, and although the visit of title-chasing Manchester City this weekend may feel a little daunting, they only have the Premier League to focus on — unlike Tottenham, who have at least the return leg against Atletico on the calendar — as they look to climb out of the bottom three for the first time since early December.
Another side on the up are Wolves, though their good run of recent form will probably be too little, too late.
With victory over Aston Villa and a dramatic late win against Liverpool, the Premier League’s bottom side have beaten two of the top six in consecutive games, while also taking a point against leaders Arsenal three weeks ago. Intriguingly, coach Rob Edwards can now look forward to the easiest upcoming schedule, per Opta’s power rankings, facing West Ham, Leeds and Tottenham — all in the bottom six — as well as out-of-form Sunderland between now and the start of May.
Wolves’ chances of survival remain slim: 0.02 per cent according to Opta’s algorithm. Win your next two as well lads, then we’ll talk.
Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?
West Ham may have the momentum, but Tottenham and Forest have — on paper at least — the more forgiving upcoming fixtures. Few give Spurs a hope on Sunday against Liverpool. Their 1-1 draw in May 2022 is the only time they have avoided defeat in their past eight league visits to Anfield. Beyond this seemingly hopeless trip to Merseyside though, their next four matches come against fellow bottom-half sides, including a huge crunch home date with Forest next Sunday.
Forest, for their part, have the easiest schedule based on the Opta Power Rankings of their next five opponents, starting with the visit of Fulham on Sunday. The west Londoners sit 10th and appear to be meandering towards another mid-table finish. Pereira’s side should possess the motivational edge, even if Fulham still have distant hopes of qualifying for European football.
Elsewhere, West Ham face a tough home game against title-challengers Manchester City on Saturday night, before a trip to fourth-place Aston Villa the weekend after. It is a tricky run, but West Ham’s strong form makes them a tough proposition for any of their Premier League opponents.
Things can swing so quickly in the league table at this time of year, so do not omit Leeds from the conversation. Daniel Farke’s side have been coasting slightly in recent weeks, with two draws and two defeats in four matches showing they are losing momentum at a crucial point. They go to Crystal Palace on Sunday, then have a home game against Brentford which looks that bit trickier today than it did a few weeks ago.
What does the supercomputer say?
Leeds’ three-point cushion to the relegation zone is the healthiest among the teams here, so it is little surprise that Opta’s projections are most bullish on their survival prospects, giving them a 92.2 per cent chance of staying up. Tottenham’s 18 per cent chance of relegation is the highest it has been all season, but the Opta computer is still more confident they will steer clear than it is about the four teams beneath them.
Forest are given a 25.8 per cent chance of going down, while West Ham’s figure stands at 48.8 per cent. The algorithm has essentially abandoned any hope of a late surge to survival by Burnley and/or Wolves, with both assigned less than a one per cent possibility of completing a great escape.