Welcome back to The Athletic’s relegation battle tracker, where our data and tactics writers examine the key trends behind the fight for Premier League survival.
With some teams playing two games in the past week, there has been plenty of change. Two of the three relegation places have been confirmed, as other sides have clambered further towards safety.
With the help of many numbers — including some from Opta’s supercomputer — our analysts assess the latest twists and turns.
What has changed since the last gameweek?
The headline news is that Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley will play in the Championship next season.
The writing had been on the wall for both sides since the turn of the year, but West Ham United’s goalless draw with Crystal Palace confirmed Wolves’ relegation on Monday, while Burnley’s 1-0 defeat against Manchester City made it two clubs slipping through the trapdoor in three days.
Tottenham Hotspur’s 2-2 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion got a point on the board, but the stoppage-time concession made it feel more like a loss for Roberto De Zerbi’s side as they remain below the dreaded dotted line.
West Ham are treading water, with Monday’s stalemate keeping them two points above the relegation zone, leaving Nottingham Forest and Leeds United as the two happiest teams.
Forest’s 4-1 victory over Burnley on Sunday extended their unbeaten Premier League run to five games, ensuring relegation drifts further away in the rearview mirror.
Meanwhile, Leeds reached the once-heralded 40-points mark on Wednesday evening — Sean Longstaff’s stoppage-time equaliser gave them a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth. Daniel Farke’s side have played one game more than their relegation-battling rivals, but that result also makes it five games without defeat.
Leeds are nine points away from the drop zone, meaning they can breathe a little more comfortably in the final few weeks of the season. Given they are only two points from 14th-placed Newcastle United and three points from 13th-placed Crystal Palace, they have every reason to be looking up the table rather than down it.
Who is looking stronger?
When you are languishing near the relegation spots, having a player who can provide a genuine attacking threat is worth their weight in gold. Nottingham Forest have that man.
Chris Wood’s return from injury comes at a welcome time, but Morgan Gibbs-White has been carrying the fight at the sharp end of the field, with six goals in his last six Premier League games.
An excellent hat-trick against Wolves inflated that record, but only Danny Welbeck has bagged more non-penalty goals (12) than Gibbs-White’s 11 finishes among all English Premier League players this season.
It risked being an unwelcome distraction, but Forest’s Europa League campaign — which has seen them reach the semi-finals against Aston Villa — has helped Vitor Pereira’s side build confidence and form at a crucial stage of the season.
With some tricky upcoming fixtures against Chelsea, Aston Villa and Newcastle, Friday clash at Sunderland could be a huge opportunity for Forest to go all in and make a big push to land the three points that should be enough for safety.
At Leeds, Noah Okafor is in similar goalscoring form to Gibbs-White after a brace against Manchester United was followed by a sharp finish against Wolves last weekend. It was a good time for Leeds to put back-to-back league victories together for the first time this season.
Farke’s side have regained some attacking potency, scoring seven goals in their last three games, after a spell of just one in their previous five. Okafor hit the post against Bournemouth, but neither he nor Dominic Calvert-Lewin found the back of the net on Wednesday. Still, they are keeping Leeds afloat, with 41 per cent of the team’s goals coming from their finishes.
Who has the tougher schedule?
Already feeling confident, a glance at Leeds’ remaining four games will give them confidence that a late drop is unlikely.
Using Opta’s Power Rankings, a proxy of each team’s strength, Leeds have the easiest run-in of any Premier League side, with their upcoming home game against Burnley almost guaranteed to secure safety if they clinch three points.
After facing Sunderland, Forest have some nasty fixtures, with Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth in their final four games.
West Ham have been steadily building momentum with just one loss in their last five league games, but a look at their remaining fixtures suggests that they are not out of the woods.
Statistically speaking, their fixture list is the third-most difficult among all teams. Their home game against Leeds on the final day could prove decisive.
What does the supercomputer say?
Look away now, Spurs fans.
Last weekend’s draw — coupled with favourable results for Leeds and Nottingham Forest — added further jeopardy to their survival chances, with time rapidly running out.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Spurs a 59 per cent probability of relegation going into this weekend — up from 49 per cent last week. Mirroring their terrible run of form in 2026, that spike has steadily risen to alarming levels since the turn of the year.
The graphic above will make for positive reading for Leeds and Nottingham Forest, with relegation probabilities of 0.3 and 4.3 per cent. For West Ham, a 36 per cent probability is a marginal reduction from last week’s 39 per cent, but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will be desperate to secure three points at home to Everton this weekend and keep their destiny in their own hands.