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Monday, 20:00
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Huge game in battle to avoid the drop
We're off to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday night for a huge game in the battle to avoid relegation. And the pressure is all on the home side.
Following West Ham's defeat to Arsenal on Sunday Leeds United are now mathematically safe thanks to a brilliantly-timed six-game unbeaten run that resulted in them climbing up to 14th in the table going into Matchday 36, seven points ahead of the Hammers in 18th.
Though with West Ham having only two games remaining, thus able to collect a maximum of six points, Daniel Farke's men know they will be playing Premier League football next season.
So it's all eyes on Tottenham here. Roberto de Zerbi's men have found a mini golden run of form themselves, winning back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since winning their first two games of the season. A third win on the spin will go a long way to securing their own Premier League safety.
Spurs home form a big concern
In the Match Odds market, Tottenham are the 4/51.80 favourites to win the game, and while that price is very understandable given that they've won their last two and the need for a win on Monday night, it's not a price that I'm remotely interested in given Spurs' home performances this term.
The Lilywhites have won just two Premier League games on home soil all season, and just one since beating second-bottom Burnley at the very start of the campaign. They have the joint-worst home record - along with the Clarets - of all 20 Premier League teams.
Of course, Monday night could be very different. A new manager, back-to-back wins, renewed confidence, and that all important need to take three points, could mean we see a very different Spurs performance to what has been the norm in front of their own fans this season, but it's still a price I want to avoid.
Somewhere in all of the above there's probably a case for backing Leeds at 3/14.00 (the draw can be backed at 29/103.90), especially given that they were on an unbeaten run of nine games away from home prior to losing last month's FA Cup semi-final at Wembley.
But on the flip side, there were a lot of draws in that unbeaten away run and the fact remains that Farke's men have won just once away from home in the Premier League - a recent win at Old Trafford - since beating hapless Wolves in September.
Will situation and history lead to goals?
Rightly or wrongly, I'm going to let the enormity of the game, and some recent head-to-head results, steer me towards my best bet of the game here.
My gut feeling is that this should be a cracking match. I've watched Leeds quite a lot in recent months and they're definitely not one of the many boring Premier League teams that like to control possession and try to pass their way to goal. They like to attack with pace, and they generally get plenty of shots away.
That bodes well for an open, entertaining game, and we know that Tottenham have no option but to go for goals.
I couldn't put anyone off backing a high-shots game, and you can back 30 or more match shots (that's both teams combined) at 6/42.50 here which I'd imagine has a very good chance of landing.
But it's the Over/Under Goals markets that I'm interested in, and I'm backing Over 3.5 Goals at 9/52.80. It's a slightly bigger price on the Exchange, and you can follow the market in real time below.
English Premier League: Tottenham v Leeds (Over/Under 3.5 Goals)
Monday 11 May, 8.00pm
You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last time Tottenham and Leeds played out a game that had fewer than three goals scored, and every one of their 10 clashes since than have resulted in Over 2.5 Goals paying out.
But more recently, four of their last six clashes have resulted in at least four goals being scored with a total of 26 goals scored in total during those clashes at an average of 4.33 goals per game. The last time the two teams met at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium the home side won 4-3.
I'm not sure we'll see seven goals on Monday night (it's 20/121.00 if you want to have the bet), but given how big the game is, the need for Spurs to win, and in the expectation that we get an entertaining affair, then I'm more than hopeful the Over 3.5 Goals bet will land.
Leeds midfielder can Stach up the shots
In a game that I'm fairly confident will be high on shots it makes sense to find a player wager in that regard. And the man that stands out is Leeds midfielder Anton Stach.
The German is high up there as one of the signings of the season for me and he was in excellent form prior to a short injury absence during April.
Stach registered 10 shots at goal in the five games before his injury, which of course is exactly two shots per game on average. You can back the 27-year-old to have two or more shots at 8/111.73 on Monday night, and given that he takes most of Leeds' free-kicks around the edge of the box then that's a fair price.
But I'm going to chance Stach registering four or more shots against Tottenham at 6/17.00.
Again, I'm hoping for an entertaining game for the bet to land most likely, but Stach came back from his injury in Leeds' 3-1 win over Burnley last week and registered five shots at goal (on or off target). Fingers crossed for a repeat - or close to a repeat - here.