The Carabao Cup final may be the showpiece event on Sunday, but there is also a crucial battle at the bottom of the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur host Nottingham Forest earlier in the day.
Both sides have changed head coaches this season (Forest are on their fourth) and both have disappointed, finding themselves in a relegation battle neither had expected.
With Igor Tudor and Vitor Pereira desperate to find the first league wins of their tenures, our Tottenham writer, Elias Burke, and his Forest counterpart, Paul Taylor, discuss the game.
How big is this match for your club’s manager? Is their position in doubt?
Elias: Before Tottenham came to life against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, I would have struggled to see how Tudor could keep his job if they failed to beat Forest on Sunday. Until last weekend’s draw against Liverpool — Spurs’ only point from Tudor’s four league matches — there was little evidence to suggest he had made a positive impact of any kind.
Then there’s the international break, which follows the Forest game, offering a potential replacement some time on the training ground to implement his methods, though many players will be away representing their nations. If Tottenham are beaten handily on Sunday, the board may be forced into a change, but Tudor has finally built some momentum. Fans and players appear to be responding well to his recent tactical changes.
Paul: This match is not going to decide Pereira’s future at Forest, but his fate might walk hand in hand with the club’s Premier League status.
The Portuguese coach was appointed because of the job he did in keeping Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League last season. If he cannot stage a repeat of that in Forest’s eight remaining games, his position will be scrutinised when Evangelos Marinakis stages his usual summer appraisal of the season.
It does, though, feel as though this match might have a significant say in how the relegation battle turns out.
What recent positives have you seen that can give fans confidence?
Elias: It was all very miserable until Tottenham’s battling performance at Anfield last weekend, which has restored some hope that they could have enough to beat the drop.
If Tottenham can match that fight and hunger against Forest and add the sprinkling of quality in possession and the final third that they demonstrated against Atletico on Tuesday, they will have a decent chance of a first home league win since beating Brentford 2-0 on December 6.
Paul: Forest’s performances have, generally, been better. Pereira has given them more identity and more freedom to attack than they had under Sean Dyche.
Thursday’s performance in Denmark, where Forest became the first side to beat Midtjylland on home soil this season, underlined the improvement, as they secured a quarter-final tie against Porto via a 2-1 victory on the night and subsequent 3-0 success in a penalty shootout.
Goals remain a problem — Forest have scored only two goals in their last seven home games in the top flight — but the one source of encouragement is that they are creating chances. Against Fulham, Ola Aina was only denied by the bar, Dan Ndoye had a goal chalked off for possibly the tightest VAR call that has been conjured up yet and Taiwo Awoniyi and Elliot Anderson spurned decent chances.
As they showed against Midtjylland — when Nico Dominguez and Ryan Yates both netted in impressive fashion — if they keep creating opportunities, the goals will surely come.
What has been the lowest point of the season?
Elias: How to choose? The misery and creeping recognition that Spurs could really struggle this season began after the 1-0 home defeat against Chelsea that could, and probably should, have been three or four. The 4-1 defeats, home and away, in the north London derby. The reverse of this weekend’s fixture, when Spurs were played off the park in a 3-0 loss at the City Ground. They’d all be fitting answers. But for how it completely deflated a fanbase, the 3-1 home loss to Crystal Palace this month might just be the worst.
Paul: There have been a few… the 0-0 draw with Wolves that sealed Dyche’s fate or the 1-0 defeat at Braga that was one of the flattest Forest performances in years — a game that they lost without the home side mustering a shot on target.
But the lowest point in terms of the ramifications that followed was August’s 3-0 home defeat to West Ham United. Not just because of the performance, but because it proved to be Nuno Espirito Santo’s final game in charge and the end of a memorable era. Nuno’s tenure unravelled as much off the pitch as on it, but when the final whistle blew on that game, it felt like a landmark moment — and the point at which things began to really unravel.
How damaging would relegation be?
Elias: Hugely. Over the past 15 years, Tottenham established themselves as part of the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’, a title considered more financial than merit-based, though they have typically warranted the label since their fourth-placed finish in 2009-10. Should they suffer relegation, they would lose hundreds of millions of pounds of revenue from commercial and television deals, and would likely have to sell many of their star players at cut prices. Sections of the fanbase have called for a new era at Spurs for years, but it would take years to rebound from this reset.
Paul: Forest fought for 23 years for a return to the top flight. This time last year, three seasons after promotion, it felt as though the club had established itself as a regular face in the Premier League.
Having secured a return to European competition via the Europa League, this was not the way this campaign was meant to turn out. What was meant to be an adventure has become a nightmare. Relegation would be a hammer blow, not just because of the financial implications and the prospect of losing at least some of their key players, but because it would feel like an unexpected backward step following a few years of remarkable progress.
Match predictions
Elias: Analyse Tottenham’s form and recent performances in the league, and there’s no real justification to suggest they will win their first league match of the year. But they were excellent against Atletico on Tuesday, and much stranger things have happened than 16th beating 17th at home. I’m optimistically predicting a strangely comfortable 2-0 win for Spurs.
Taylor: Tottenham sit bottom of the Premier League form table with only one point from their last six games — but Forest are immediately above them, having collected three points from three draws.
But confidence at Forest has not completely eroded. In fact, it will have been boosted significantly in Denmark. Forest to secure a narrow and entirely nervy 1-0 win.