One way or another, the relegation fate of Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United will be decided on Sunday.
One club will secure Premier League survival, the other will suffer the financial and sporting fallout of dropping into the Championship. For two sides who began the season with far loftier ambitions, the stakes could hardly be higher.
With it being the final day of the Premier League season, Spurs and West Ham will kick off simultaneously on Sunday. Tottenham host Everton while West Ham welcome Leeds United to the London Stadium in a relegation battle that will unfold in real time across the capital.
Spurs hold the advantage in that a draw would be enough for Roberto De Zerbi’s side to confirm their place in the Premier League. West Ham, meanwhile, need Spurs to lose and a victory of their own to climb to safety.
Tottenham’s home record suggests there could be one last twist in the tail. Indeed, they are saddled with the joint-worst home record in the league, having won just twice in front of their own fans.
While Spurs have shown tentative signs of improvement under De Zerbi, they have not won a home game in the league since December. The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been a toxic environment for much of this season, and it won’t take much for the home supporters to grow nervous on Sunday.
Everton, on the other hand, boast one of the strongest away records in the division. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have picked up more points on the road than David Moyes’ men, who could still finish in the top half of the table.
Beto has scored five goals in his last six games and will pose a threat to a Tottenham back line that looked vulnerable in Tuesday’s 2-1 defeat to Chelsea.
Iliman Ndiaye, who is averaging more successful dribbles per 90 minutes than any other Everton player this season, will be a threat down the left wing and could expose the space behind the Spurs full-backs in the way many opponents have this season.
The return of James Maddison from injury has certainly given Tottenham more creativity in possession. The 29-year-old registered four passes into the final third against Chelsea and missed one big chance of his own.
However, it’s doubtful Maddison will be ready to start against Everton, having missed the majority of the season. This might turn Sunday’s affair into a physical encounter, which could play into Everton’s hands.
West Ham’s situation is even more perilous, reflected by their price of 1/16 to suffer relegation to the Championship for the first time since the end of the 2010-11 season.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side enter the final weekend of the campaign on the back of three straight defeats to Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle United. Their form has deserted them at the worst possible time.
Nonetheless, Leeds will arrive at the London Stadium this weekend already on the metaphorical beach. Daniel Farke’s side secured their safety two weeks ago and have nothing left to play for.
Leeds are unbeaten in their last eight league matches and will want to finish their Premier League campaign on a positive note. However, it might be difficult for them to match the Hammers’ motivation, considering what is on the line for them.
Nuno must find a way to instil some belief in a group of players that looked to have accepted their fate at St James’ Park last weekend. Not so long ago, West Ham were looking promising as they won matches against Wolves and Everton.
If West Ham can stay compact and organised at the back, and play in quick transition going forward to get Jarrod Bowen and Taty Castellanos into space, the hosts could give themselves a chance of survival.
Tottenham are 11/2 to finish 18th in the Premier League table and drop into the Championship. This reflects how many different things need to happen for the worst possible scenario to materialise for the north London outfit.
If De Zerbi can maintain the high energy levels demonstrated by Spurs in their last few matches under the former Brighton and Marseille manager, that could be the thing that gets Tottenham over the line, considering their lack of natural creativity.
Mathys Tel has a goal and an assist in his last three outings and looks to be one of the Spurs players who has embraced De Zerbi’s ideas and methods. The former Bayern Munich winger is 6/5 to score or assist at any time against Everton.
That Spurs and West Ham are even in this situation heading into the final game of the season is demonstrative of the gross mismanagement both clubs have suffered from in recent times. No matter what unfolds on Sunday, some reflection will be required over the summer.
Before then, though, there is only survival. Tottenham and West Ham will spend the final afternoon of the campaign fighting for their Premier League status, with judgment day now looming for both clubs.