Tottenham are in serious, serious trouble. That much is clear just by looking at the form book, with only two wins from their last 18 Premier League matches. Now they sit precariously in 16th place, just four points clear of 18th-placed West Ham and desperately needing results and fast. But, with Igor Tudor coming in and 11 matches still to play, how likely are Spurs to be relegated this term?
Coming off the back of another 4-1 derby humbling at the hands of Arsenal, Tottenham have now won just two of their last 18 Premier League matches.
Since a 3-0 win at Everton on October 26, Spurs have picked up just 12 points from a possible 54 to plummet down the league table.
Perhaps even more worryingly if you are a Tottenham fan, is that they have failed to win in 2026, last coming out victorious in a 1-0 triumph at Crystal Palace on December 28.
Unsurprisingly, with those results, Spurs sit just four points above the relegation zone, with West Ham winning two of their last five, including a win away to Spurs to close the gap.
Over the last five matches, Spurs have the joint-worst form in the league alongside Wolves, who are still yet to overtake Derby’s unwanted record for fewest points in the league.
Times are dire and fans are getting increasingly worried that Tottenham may actually face the drop this season, but how likely are they to actually be relegated?
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What does the manager say?
Many Tottenham fans were deeply unhappy with how long it took for the club to move on from Thomas Frank when things were clearly not going well.
Now they have Igor Tudor at the helm and his first game in charge of the club highlighted the disparity with their local rivals, who are on course for a Quadruple challenge.
Tudor has a history of short-term management stints and the club have signed him accordingly until June.
Tudor has never stayed at a club for two full years, with his managerial debut in his native Croatia with Hajduk Split his longest reign at just shy of 22 months and 78 matches.
Recently, he had unconvincing short-term stays at Lazio and Juventus after a period of moderate success at Marseille, where he enjoyed his highest win record of 56.3%.
Spurs right now need him to make an instant impact and with the former Juventus centre back taking charge of his first Premier League job. He is aware of the challenge he faces - something fans probably don’t want to hear.
He told BBC Radio 5 Live: "Now in this moment, the team is full of problems.
"The only key is to work on the training day by day and be humble, we need to be more aggressive - we need to be more compact, these are the keys.
"You understand the gap with the mental sharpness of one team and other teams. This is a thing we need to change. I saw players available to do this, but we need more time to do this.
"Thinking about relegation doesn't bring you anything to anybody."
So, even the new manager is talking about relegation…
What does their form say?
This is comfortably the biggest factor in many feeling that Tottenham are in serious danger of going down if they do not fix themselves up sharpish.
Losing each of their last three matches, two of which were at home to Newcastle and Arsenal, Spurs are in freefall.
A surprise 2-2 comeback draw against Manchester City continued their impressive recent record against Pep Guardiola, but a Cristian Romero equaliser salvaging a 2-2 draw against 19th-place Burnley tells more of a realistic story.
And the week before that, Spurs were beaten in the 93rd minute by West Ham after Callum Wilson bundled it into the back of the net from close range.
That seems a particularly costly result, with the Hammers creeping gradually closer and it was a win that seems to have sparked them back into life.
The fact that Spurs’ Premier League form is on a par with a Wolves side preparing for life in the Championship, is then contradicted by their frankly odd UEFA Champions League record.
Tottenham finished fourth in the league phase, avoiding a play-off match, and picked up wins over Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund and Slavia Prague during their Premier League slump.
The domestic form suggests Spurs absolutely can go down, but will their European form finally transfer over?
What do the stats say about Spurs’ chances of relegation?
It was always going to be a big ask for Igor Tudor against the league leaders and still missing so many key personnel, but in losing in his opening match, he ended a big positive for Spurs managers.
He became the first Tottenham manager to lose their opening Premier League game in charge since Andre Villas-Boas in August 2012, with each of the previous nine at least drawing.
That in itself is an unwanted stat, but what do OPTA say about their form?
Spurs are averaging 1.07 points/game in the Premier League this season. In a 20-team league, the only team relegated with a PPG as high were West Ham in 2002-03 (1.11).
Their 29 points is their second-lowest total after 27 games in a Premier League season, after 1997-98 (27).
Based on their current PPG, they’d finish this season with 41 points, a total which would have only seen them relegated from the PL in 2002-03 (38-game season only).
From the remaining 11 corresponding fixtures last season (replacing Sunderland with Southampton and Leeds with Leicester), Spurs’ record was W2 D0 L9
There are certainly a few positives in there for Tottenham fans, but if you look at their PPG since their 3-0 win over Everton on 26 October, it is just 0.67, which would see them win only another seven points and reach 36 points.
That is not as safe a total, but it has been enough to guarantee Premier League football in each of the last nine seasons and has a survival rate of 60% (18 seasons out of 30, it would be enough).
Tottenham may take some relief from the historical data, but who lies in wait to see if they can make it happen?
What are Tottenham's remaining fixtures?
Spurs have 11 Premier League matches left in the season - five of which are at home, where their record is that much worse.
Winning just two of their 14 home matches and with a PPG of 0.71, it has been desperately disappointing times at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season.
Away they have been significantly better, winning five and drawing four of 13 away matches, earning an average of 1.46 PPG and even enjoying a positive goal difference of one.
So it could be considered a positive that they have an extra away game, but who do they play, and when are the key matches?
Tottenham’s next two matches are against London rivals. They face Fulham on Sunday, Match 1 at Craven Cottage before hosting Crystal Palace on March 5, a game that can be watched live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
They then face the daunting task of a trip to Anfield 10 days later and then return to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for a gigantic relegation six-pointer against Nottingham Forest on March 22.
Sunderland away follows that in April, then Brighton back at home, before another massive match for Tudor, away at Wolves in what surely has to be three points.
Opponent Date Fulham (a) Sunday, 1 March Crystal Palace (h) Thursday, 5 March Liverpool (a) Sunday, 15 March Nottingham Forest (h) Sunday, 22 March Sunderland (a) Weekend of 11 April Brighton (h) Weekend of 18 April Wolves (a) Weekend of 25 April Aston Villa (a) Weekend of 2 May Leeds (h) Weekend of 9 May Chelsea (a) 17 May Everton (h) 24 May
Their remaining four matches are tough, visiting high-flying Aston Villa and Chelsea, while hosting a Leeds side who may well still be fighting for their own safety and Everton on the final day, who are likely to be safe, with nothing to play for but revenge for their home defeat, potentially making them dangerous.
Tottenham are in a fight, that seems clear by all the data, the form and even the comments of their new manager, but will they actually go down?
Well, returning to OPTA, they have placed their chances of the drop at just 4.35%, compared to 23.08% for Forest and 71.44% for West Ham.
The statisticians are in their favour and so, it remains to be seen whether Tottenham will defy the odds.
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