All logic has gone out of the window during the batsh*t 2025/26 Premier League campaign, and it’s been a bloody joy to behold.
Yes, the overall quality of the league has decreased, but there has been no shortage of entertainment and great moments, with the division far more competitive than it was a year ago.
Also, unlike previous years, pretty much everything is still to play for during the run-in: Wolves and Burnley are doomed but West Ham have reignited the relegation battle, Manchester City are closer to the top than league leaders Arsenal would like and it’s anyone’s guess as to who will qualify for the three European competitions.
So, we thought we would pick out ten plausible shocks that could happen in the remaining 12 games of the 2025/26 Premier League campaign…
Arsenal don’t win the Premier League
At this stage, there is no denying that Mikel Arteta’s team are the best in the Premier League and arguably Europe, so they should (and probably will) end their prolonged wait for silverware by winning at least a couple of trophies this season.
Arsenal’s list of 2025/26 accolades will most likely include the Premier League title, but it will not be nearly as comfortable for the perennial runners-up as it looked to be a few months ago.
There has been a swing in momentum in the past few days, with Man City’s statement win at Anfield against Liverpool and Arsenal’s meek draw at Brentford illustrating their differing moods.
It’s now only four points between Arsenal and Man City in the table, with this margin certainly enough to give Pep Guardiola’s men plenty of encouragement that history could repeat itself during this run-in.
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Manchester City win the Premier League
Arsenal, as the most consistent side in the Premier League, are top of the table for a reason, but it has been refreshing that this title race looks to be imperfect; it won’t be the end of the road for them or Man City if there is a single cock-up in the next few weeks.
There should be real questions asked of Arteta if they fall short again, as there are no remaining excuses; their £250m summer spend ensures they have top-quality options in every position and are equipped to cope with their ongoing injury issues.
Arsenal’s nerves may get the better of them during the run-in, but Man City will inevitably slip up too and this current Guardiola side would arguably be the weakest to win a title if they get over the line.
At either end of the pitch, Erling Haaland and Gianluigi Donnarumma are great equalisers for Man City as world-class players, while the January additions of Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo have given them a shot in the arm. Still, this team is far from impenetrable and it would be a massive scalp if they overcome their frailties to snatch the title in potentially Guardiola’s final season.
Manchester United finish third
The interim appointment of Michael Carrick has gone better than anyone associated with Man Utd could have hoped for, with INEOS facing being put in an impossible position in the summer if he guides them, as he now should, to Champions League qualification.
Unlike his predecessors, Carrick, who has won the January manager of the month award, did not inherit a mess; Ruben Amorim and others have made his job rather simple.
Man Utd have benefited from Carrick implementing several no-brainer changes, but he does deserve credit for making his team gel so quickly in a significant boost to their hopes of Champions League football.
With Bruno Fernandes, Kobbie Mainoo and co. sparkling and no cup competitions to contend with, a third-place finish is looking increasingly feasible after this was unthinkable under Amorim.
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Aston Villa miss out on the Champions League
And Man Utd could contribute to Aston Villa missing out on Champions League qualification completely, as they did last season.
Following the brainless early-season sack talk, Unai Emery did a remarkable job in the middle portion of this campaign as Villa threatened a challenge for the Premier League title.
This also meant that a place in the Champions League looked certain, but their recent dip has given hope to sides below them that another spot in the competition could be up for grabs.
With how Liverpool are performing, Villa should be fine for at least fifth with their current eight-point advantage over the Premier League holders, but this is no longer a guarantee as injuries have severely hit them in midfield.
Sunderland qualify for Europe
Refer to this European qualification explainer for all you need to know about how this process works for Premier League clubs, but it’s fair to say that Sunderland are in with a shout of earning a spot either for a seventh-placed finish or FA Cup win.
The Black Cats may well fall short and settle for a mid-table spot, but it goes to show how well they have performed that their supporters are even able to dream of a season in Europe at this stage of the season.
The pre-season favourites for relegation have been a revelation under head coach Regis Le Bris, thanks to his wise approach and superb transfer business, which has set up a rather exciting end to the campaign.
Brentford qualify for Europe
Sunderland and others could be edged out for a spot in the Europa Conference League by Brentford, who are the current frontrunners to finish seventh with a three-point cushion on their closest rivals.
Brentford, another pre-season relegation favourite, were tipped by pretty much everyone to really struggle without Thomas Frank and several departed stars, but the ‘best run club in the country’ have thrived in their absence.
Keith Andrews has proven to be more than a set-piece coach by taking Brentford to another level with a squad inferior to the one managed by Frank last season.
Brighton sack Fabian Hurzeler
The Seagulls have also been billed as one of the best-run clubs in the Premier League, but their model has been somewhat exposed by their decline this season.
Despite backing Hurzeler more than any other manager with a £300m spend, Brighton have gone backwards and are currently looking over their shoulders after sleepwalking into the relegation conversation.
Rightly, there are now murmurs about Hurzeler being under pressure and he is the new favourite to be the next Premier League manager sacked. Back-to-back losses against Liverpool and Brentford could seal his fate after they flirted with a Champions League challenge around November.
West Ham United avoid relegation
West Ham had looked dead and buried for much of this season, but they are now resembling a proper team under Nuno Espirito Santo, who will be rather smug if/when his side survive and Nottingham Forest get relegated.
Nuno had looked like a broken man as he appeared on the brink of the sack around the New Year, but West Ham have been rewarded for backing the renowned firefighter as their January transfer business has contributed to their massive improvement.
The Hammers have three wins in five, and they would have taken maximum points without their late slip-ups against Chelsea and Man Utd. They have a points deficit to overcome, but they are arguably the most accomplished side between them, Forest and Spurs and could pull off the great escape.
Nottingham Forest sack Vitor Pereira
Pereira is Forest’s fourth permanent manager of the 2025/26 campaign, with the 57-year-old handed a deal until the end of the season to repeat his previous rescue job at Wolves.
Having four permanent bosses in a single season is already a Premier League record, but it is certainly not outside of the realms of possibility that controversial owner Evangelos Marinakis hits the panic button once more if there is no bounce from this appointment.
In reality, it is Marinakis who needs to be sent miles away from the City Ground.
Tottenham Hotspur get relegated
With only five points separating Spurs from the bottom three with 12 games remaining, the north London side are definitely in a relegation fight.
Spurs have rolled the dice with Igor Tudor in an attempt to get them out of trouble, but his recent work at Juventus suggests this appointment could go desperately wrong.
In the end, Spurs will surely have enough quality in their squad to edge out Forest to survive, but the March 22 fixture between these sides could end up having a monumental impact on their seasons.