Opta’s supercomputer has favored Tottenham to get a positive result against Everton.
Opta’s supercomputer has handed Tottenham Hotspur a 50.4 per cent chance of beating Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, with the data giving De Zerbi’s side a combined 73.2 per cent probability of securing the point they need to mathematically confirm their Premier League survival.
Everton have been given a 26.8 per cent chance of winning, with a draw assessed at 22.8 per cent. Crucially, given that a draw is sufficient for Tottenham to stay up regardless of West Ham’s result against Leeds, the overwhelming majority of likely outcomes end with Spurs retaining their top-flight status.
Tottenham’s poor home record is a worrying factor
The numbers offer genuine encouragement, but the context of Tottenham’s home form this season provides an important counterweight. De Zerbi’s side have one of the worst home records in the Premier League, winning just two matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium while drawing six and losing ten. Playing at home has been far from the advantage it should be throughout this catastrophic campaign, and Everton arrive as a side that has demonstrated considerable resilience on the road, recording seven away wins this season alongside five draws and six defeats.
That away record means Sunday will be no formality regardless of the supercomputer’s numbers. Everton are a side with nothing to fear and plenty of professional pride to play for on the final day, and a Tottenham home ground that has been a source of anxiety rather than comfort all season will need to be transformed into a genuine fortress for the first time in months.
The one significant comfort is the draw option. Tottenham have managed six home draws this season, meaning finding a way to share the points is well within their capabilities even if the win proves elusive. Against West Ham’s final day challenge of hosting Leeds, the goal difference advantage Spurs hold means a draw almost certainly delivers safety regardless of what happens at the London Stadium.
Sunday promises to be an afternoon of extraordinary tension at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The supercomputer gives Spurs a strong chance. Three points would end the uncertainty immediately. One point almost certainly does the same. The finishing line has never been closer.