The last two matches have been the most encouraging Tottenham Hotspur performances in months, and strung together there has not been a week like this maybe all season. After a disastrous start under Igor Tudor, suddenly the squad looks revitalized and capable of not only avoiding relegation, but doing so comfortably, a statement that was preposterous after the Palace defeat and first leg debacle against Atleti.
And yet — as exciting as the Liverpool comeback and Atleti second leg were, they yielded just one point in the Premier League table, meaning the situation is still quite precarious. The good news is that a win on Sunday would build a significant four-point gap ahead of Nottingham Forest, capping off a desperately needed great week. The bad news is a loss essentially erases all goodwill and puts Spurs in an even worse position than before.
Match Details
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 10:15 am ET, 2:15 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: USA Network (US), Sky Sports Main Event (UK)
Table: Spurs (16th, 30 pts), Forest (t-17th, 29 pts)
The December contest at the City Ground was an ugly site. Forest was fighting relegation even back then, but won comfortably 3-0 with an xG difference of 2.32-0.33. That loss came just after Tottenham’s 2-0 win against Brentford, which was the first league victory in over a month. Since that defeat to Forest, there has been very little to celebrate.
Two Things to Watch
The system is working?
The draw at Anfield was not exactly an offensive explosion, but it was a step in the right direction in terms of attack. I have wondered if Richarlison is the key to success down the stretch, and his equalizer perfectly represents what he brings to the table. However, the Spurs attack was more than fine without him, yielding numerous opportunities yielding 1.60 xG (plus a penalty).
Are Xavi Simons and Mathys Tel enough to supplement Richarlison, Dominic Solanke, and Randal Kolo Muani? It may seem premature to declare so, but at the same time it is not unreasonable to think that the new manager has a better sense of his personnel after a few weeks and that the players understand the manager’s style — and role expectations — now too.
Sunday will be a good test, with Forest unlikely to venture forward too much, especially on the road. The visitors will be content without the ball and will probably be ok with a low-event match. That puts the onus on the Tottenham attack to stay aggressive and show the ambition and creativity that had been dormant for months prior to the past week.
Vibes & momentum
That being said, Vitor Pereira’s side is not going to simply roll over. Forest’s lineup on Thursday makes absolutely clear that this relegation showdown is the top priority for his club as well, and stealing a win on the road would substantially shift the odds between these two sides (which is crucial given West Ham’s recent form). The visitors have drawn two straight and have a tough fixture list remaining, so they might see this as a prime chance for a result.
Even so, Spurs are still the side that needs this match more, just from a mentality perspective. A win validates the progress Tudor and his squad have made over the past two matches and gives real reason to believe that they are turning the corner, right before the clock strikes midnight. A loss, though, wipes so much of that away and leaves the club looking up at Forest…for at least the next three weeks.
That is because Tottenham does not play until THREE weeks after Sunday. That is a long time to wallow back into despair and again question the viability of Tudor. But three weeks to enjoy a bit of breathing room, to build upon Liverpool-Atleti-Forest, and to allow more players to get healthy sounds great. Maybe instead this just ends in a draw and the wait continues, but either way, there is no underselling the magnitude of this true six-pointer.
