Opta Analyst

Thomas Frank has been appointed Tottenham boss without having managed in the Champions League before. We look at the unique challenge he will face in north London.

Thomas Frank, the new Tottenham Hotspur manager, faces the rather unusual challenge of going into a new club who have qualified for the Champions League.

It’s an unusual situation because whatever a team has done to get into Europe’s biggest competition tends to mean they had a successful season, and so there’s rarely any desire or need to change manager in the months afterwards.

But what has happened at Spurs recently is unique. They won the Europa League – guaranteeing a spot in next season’s Champions League – after their worst ever Premier League campaign. Tottenham finished 17th in the table having lost more games (22) than any other team to avoid relegation in the Premier League era, and so chose to sack their trophy-drought-ending manager Ange Postecoglou.

It means Frank faces a challenge that few others ever have ever had: Champions League football in his first season at a new club. He is only the 10th manager in the Premier League era to go into a new club during the off-season with a Champions League campaign coming up.

But the task for Frank is actually even greater. He goes into Spurs having never managed anyone in the Champions League before. In fact, a couple of Europa League qualifiers with Brøndby is all the experience in European competition he has as a manager.

There’s no doubting the quality of the work he did at Brentford, nor the fact that he is a hugely exciting appointment, but the question mark over how he will contend with the challenge of Champions League football at Tottenham is a legitimate one.

Also, none of the above takes into account that the Spurs team he has taken over have just become the lowest-ranked team (in terms of league position) to win either the UEFA Cup/Europa League or the European Cup/Champions League, and the lowest-ranked team to qualify for the Champions League.

Postecoglou did admit after the season ended that he had put all of his eggs in the Europa League basket and essentially gave up in the Premier League in the closing weeks, so that does provide some mitigation for his side’s terrible final position. Nevertheless, there are clearly lots of problems to be fixed for Spurs to become a team capable of competing in Europe’s biggest competition. In league position terms, they will become the worst team ever to play in the Champions League.

Frank may also be concerned about the fate of previous managers who debuted in the Champions League in their first season at a new club.

In the Premier League era, five other managers have gone to a new team during the summer before a season in the Champions League without ever having managed a game in the competition before. Three of them didn’t last even one full season, and neither of the other two lasted longer than 18 months. Clearly, this is a tough situation in which to join a club.

Each of those five managers started at their new club in different circumstances. The first was Ray Harford, who replaced Kenny Dalglish as Blackburn Rovers manager shortly after they won the league in 1994-95. He survived the full season, with Blackburn finishing seventh in the Premier League, but they crashed out of the Champions League in the group stage, and he lasted only a couple of months into the following campaign. His 16-month stint was longer than three of the other managers in this list but the shortest for a Blackburn manager in 17 years, showing how much winning the league had altered expectations at the club.

There was a 13-year wait for another club to change manager off the back of a Champions League-securing campaign, with Chelsea next to do so when they sacked Avram Grant after a 2007-08 season in which they came close to winning three major trophies but ended up empty-handed. They finished two points off top spot in the league, lost the League Cup final to Spurs in extra-time and missed out on Champions League glory by the width of the post as John Terry missed a penalty to win the final against Manchester United. ‘Close’ wasn’t enough for Roman Abramovich, though, and Grant was sacked, with Luiz Felipe Scolari coming in.

Scolari already had bags of experience; he was 26 years into his managerial career when he moved to London for his first club job in European football. He had even already won the World Cup with Brazil. But he had never managed in the Champions League, and was sacked in February with Chelsea fourth in the table and seven points off top spot.

Chelsea have since sacked two more managers who joined in the summer after Champions League football was secured: André Villas-Boas in the March of 2011-12, nine months after he joined following a season in which Chelsea had finished second, and Frank Lampard in January 2021 after he joined in 2019, when the Blues had just finished third and won the Europa League under Maurizio Sarri. With his 18-month spell, Lampard lasted longer than any other manager in this list.

The other manager to make his Champions League debut with a new club was David Moyes, who had the impossible job of replacing Sir Alex Ferguson at title-winning United in 2013. Moyes was sacked in April of that first season at Old Trafford.

Interestingly, though, some of those teams did very well indeed in the Champions League despite having a manager with no experience in that competition. Moyes’ United made the quarter-finals, Scolari’s Chelsea went on to reach the semis after he was sacked, and Villas-Boas’ side won the whole thing once Roberto Di Matteo (another Champions League debutant but a mid-season appointment) came in.

Frank will arguably have an easier job at Tottenham than any of those other five managers in that there is so much room for improvement at his new club. There’s also little expectation that he will win a trophy, which couldn’t be said of those fired Chelsea managers nor Moyes at United.

But he also has an awful lot of work to do to improve this team’s results sufficiently to satisfy a fanbase, many of whom will hope to see Spurs challenging for the Champions League qualification spots next season.

To do so in the 2024-25 season, Spurs would have needed an extra 29 points on the 38 they actually collected. An improvement that great from one season to the next has only been achieved by three teams in Premier League history, showing just how big a challenge Frank faces. Two of them won the title (Chelsea +43 points in 2016-17 and Leicester +40 points in 2015-16), but the other occurred this season, as Nottingham Forest won 29 more points than the previous year. Perhaps crucially, though, none of those teams were playing in Europe, as Spurs will be.

Life at Tottenham begins for Frank in mid-August as he becomes the first Premier League manager whose opening game in charge of a club will be the UEFA Super Cup, which pits Spurs against Paris Saint-Germain in Udine. Lampard came close to doing so with Chelsea in 2019, but their Super Cup defeat to Liverpool was actually his second game.

Across Europe since 2000, four managers have started at a new club with their very first game in the Super Cup and, ominously for Frank, none have lasted more than a single season in their job.

The 2004 Super Cup pitted two new managers against one another, as Porto’s Victor Fernández faced Valencia’s Claudio Ranieri. Both were sacked in February of their first season.

In 2016, Jorge Sampaoli kicked off life as Sevilla’s new head coach with a Super Cup defeat and spent only a season in charge, though that was because he was appointed Argentina boss as opposed to being sacked. Then, two years later, Julen Lopetegui went in at Real Madrid after they won the Champions League, so started off with a Super Cup game; he lasted just three months.

You would think Frank will have to do extremely badly not to be given at least one full season at Tottenham, but there will also be some pressure on him to start quickly and maintain the positive feeling that the Europa League trophy has brought to N17.

He faces a unique challenge in his new job, and will do very well to contend with the balancing act that European football requires. If he lasts longer than a season and a half, he’ll already have done better than any other manager debuting in the Champions League before him.

The debate over whether Tottenham should stick by Ange Postecoglou in the wake of Europa League glory is a polarising one. Here, we look at both sides of the argument.

Tottenham Hotspur have just played out one of the most baffling seasons you’re ever likely to see.

They finished the league campaign in 17th, just one place clear of the relegation zone. It was their worst ever finish in the Premier League era and their worst in any top-flight season since 1976-77, when they were last relegated.

But they also won their first trophy in 17 years on a glorious night in Bilbao with a resilient defensive display in the Europa League final, the type of which was almost entirely absent from their whole Premier League campaign.

The thinking before that victory over Manchester United was that the domestic campaign had been so dismal that even silverware would not be enough to save manager Ange Postecoglou. Widespread reports suggested the decision to sack him had already been made.

But the jubilant scenes at the final whistle in Spain and the trophy parade in London have changed the narrative. Many who were convinced Postecoglou was the wrong man for the job now believe he has earned the right to keep it.

Chairman Daniel Levy has been left with a difficult decision to make: sack the man who has just ended Spurs’ trophy drought, or stick with someone who oversaw a historically bad Premier League campaign?

So, what should he do? Here, we make the case for and against a change in the dugout.

The Case for Sacking Postecoglou

The reasons to get rid of Postecoglou are based around the pretty simple assertion that the team has moved backwards under him. There has been little evidence he is capable of building a Tottenham side who can compete – as they did consistently under Mauricio Pochettino – at the top end of the Premier League.

His football succeeded in Australia, Japan and Scotland, but flaws have been exposed in the harsh world of top-flight football in England. Tottenham scored a hell of a lot of goals under him – 64 in the Premier League this season to be precise, which was as many as fourth-placed Chelsea and more than 12 teams – but they shipped goals and chances far too easily.

Only the three relegated teams and Wolves conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than Spurs (63), while only the bottom three allowed their opponents a higher expected goals total than them (64.4 xG). Based on their defensive displays, they fully deserved to finish 17th.

Much of what Postecoglou has espoused throughout his time at Tottenham has centred around the idea that football should be enjoyable to watch. “Are you not entertained?” he asked Sky Sports following his side’s 4-3 League Cup quarter-final win over United in December, a game in which Spurs had led 3-0 but very nearly threw away.

Approaching matches that way was fine while Spurs were winning, and during his 10-match unbeaten start to life in England at the beginning of 2023-24, he was seen as a breath of fresh air. He won himself a lot of admirers among a fanbase who had grown tired of watching the football of José Mourinho and Antonio Conte.

But when opponents figured Postecoglou’s Spurs out and the gung-ho tactics led to results nosediving, he still stuck to his guns, refusing to change the way his side played, whatever the circumstances. His doing so and then saying things like “it’s just who we are” became a stick to beat him with. And rightly so.

Spurs remained entertaining through his two seasons in the Premier League, but in 2024-25 they were fun to watch for the wrong reasons. They continued to score reliably but were just as consistently outscored, and the damning numbers speak for themselves.

They suffered more defeats (22) than any other team that avoided relegation from the Premier League ever has. Their total of 38 points was Tottenham’s lowest in the Premier League era, and would have been low enough to see them relegated in four other seasons, while in three more they would have been saved only on goal difference.

They were very, very fortunate that the three promoted sides proved to be the worst trio of relegated teams, in points terms, the Premier League has ever seen. That meant relegation was never really a genuine possibility and Postecoglou was able to focus fully on the Europa League, something he has admitted he did since the season ended.

But make no mistake, what everyone saw was a team not cut out for the level they were playing at. Spurs were outplayed and beaten by plenty of teams they have much greater resources than and were expected to beat. They alone were responsible for two of the six (33.3%) away wins that relegated trio Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton recorded, for example.

Postecoglou complained for much of the season about the injuries his side suffered, and there’s no doubt the many absences had a big impact on results. Through the middle part of the season, they were consistently without a full team of players.

But there is also the question of whether Postecoglou’s insistence on playing his relentlessly high-intensity brand of football was in some way to blame for their injuries. His players were asked to put in more physical effort than most of the rest of the top flight, with Tottenham ranking either second or third in the Premier League this season for distance covered (111.5 km per 90), sprints (167.5 per 90), off-ball runs (159.0 per 90) and pressures in the final third (55.2 per 90). This is a topic we covered in more depth during the height of their injury crisis earlier this year.

Questions over whether Postecoglou’s football is suited to the demands of the Premier League alongside a European schedule have therefore persisted throughout the season. If – as evidence suggests – he is not willing to budge on his tactics in league games (he did adapt in the Europa League but has spoken openly about his view that cup competitions deserve to be approached differently), then there is little to suggest he can take this Spurs team back to the upper part of the Premier League. They are just too easy to beat.

The case for sacking him, in its simplest terms, is that Tottenham Hotspur simply cannot continue with a manager who has just overseen such a terrible season, because if 2025-26 is even half as bad, it will still be a long way off acceptable.

The Case Against Sacking Postecoglou

Sure, the numbers don’t look good, but that Europa League trophy certainly does, doesn’t it?

That is the crux of the argument for keeping Postecoglou in charge: he delivered Tottenham’s first trophy in 17 years and their first in Europe for 41. Against all odds, he proved that this club, for so long underachievers and nearly men, can, after all, win silverware.

And what a way to do it, too, after his promise all the way back in September that “I always win things in my second year.” How about that for a way to convince the players and fans to believe in him?

It could have been the perfect “mic drop” moment, as their goalscoring hero in the Europa League final, Brennan Johnson, said after the game in Bilbao.

But it could also be the start of something else; further reason to get behind him in the stands at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and, more importantly, in the boardroom, too.

If Postecoglou is backed with budget for transfers and wages to match the teams against whom Spurs want to be competing – something that Pochettino was not given – it is worth giving him the chance to try and bridge the gap to the upper echelons of the Premier League.

There has arguably been enough proof that Postecoglou’s Tottenham aren’t a million miles off doing so. There were some performances last season – in the 4-0 win at Manchester City and the 1-0 home League Cup semi-final win over Liverpool in particular – that showed the ceiling of this team is very high indeed. With a few additions to the squad, they should be able to produce that level of performance more often.

There is also no ignoring how Postecoglou adapted to difficult circumstances in the later part of the season to guide Spurs to Europa League glory. If the criticism of him had been that he was too steadfastly wedded to his principles, then surely he deserves credit for doing precisely the opposite and winning a trophy doing it.

In the final four games of their Europa League run, Spurs conceded only one goal, a deflected effort late on in the first leg of the semi-final against Bodø/Glimt when they were already three goals up. They had no more than 41.7% possession in any of those games and won every one. It was nothing like ‘Angeball‘ as we had come to know it.

They weren’t carved open time and again, and their opponents didn’t find it easy to create chances. In the final, United only really threatened from balls into the box from deep or from set-pieces.

That successful run might just hint at Postecoglou changing his ways. Perhaps he has learned that sticking religiously to his idea of playing isn’t the way to get results in this job, even if it was at previous clubs, and that he may need to ask less physically of his players to keep them fit.

He might have said in so many words that he would never change or negotiate on his principles on more than one occasion since joining Spurs, but the last few months suggest that may no longer be the case. Perhaps he can be adaptable and, dare we say it, pragmatic, after all.

The final thing to say in Postecoglou’s favour is an intangible that cannot be underestimated, and that is the positive feeling around the club; the belief in what he is doing.

With 90 painstakingly poor quality minutes in Bilbao, the entire narrative around Tottenham was flipped on its head. Despair at the constant defeats this season and years of failure previously made way for the euphoria of finally winning a trophy, and with it, Postecoglou earned legendary status among the fans. He proved Spurs don’t have to be brittle and beatable. They don’t have to be ‘Spursy‘.

The players clearly love him, and a few have openly stated their hope that he stays, so why disrupt that feeling in the hope – and that’s all it would be – that there is something better out there?

For all the data that suggests Spurs weren’t up to scratch this season, for those defending him, there is only one stat for 2024-25 that matters. Trophies won: one.

Essentially, the debate can be boiled down to data versus vibes. Stark numbers that paint a picture of a truly dreadful league season against the sheer, unbridled joy of winning a major European trophy for the first time in a generation.

It’s a difficult decision that Levy has been left with, and the above arguments show there is no definitively correct answer.

Still, it’s one the fans hope their chairman can get right.

Having endured terrible domestic seasons, Tottenham and Manchester United face off for European silverware and UEFA Champions League qualification. We look ahead to Wednesday’s huge game with our UEFA Europa League final prediction and preview.

Tottenham vs Manchester United: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer is struggling to split Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, making Spurs slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%).

Spurs have already beaten Man Utd three times in all competitions this season. The only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single campaign were Everton in 1985-86.

Ruben Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of Man Utd, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).

A mid-May meeting between the sides sat 16th and 17th in the Premier League table does not usually arouse much interest.

But Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final at San Mamés, Bilbao, has taken on extraordinary importance for both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Having not lifted a trophy of any kind since Juande Ramos oversaw their victory over Chelsea in the 2008 EFL Cup final, Spurs are desperate for silverware.

Ange Postecoglou has cut a thorny figure for much of the season and his future remains far from certain, but ending Tottenham’s drought would make it all worthwhile for the Australian, who told reporters in September: “I always win things in my second year.”

Ruben Amorim has been less bullish, describing his United team as the worst side in the club’s storied history.

Wednesday’s victors will seal UEFA Champions League qualification for 2025-26, with the financial rewards giving Amorim the chance to turbo-boost his United rebuild.

The losers will be left to face the uncomfortable reality of having endured their worst campaign in modern history.

This will be the sixth all-English final in the history of UEFA club competitions, with no other country providing as many finals between two of their clubs (Italy and Spain have had five apiece).

It will be the third of those to involve Tottenham, who beat Wolves 3-2 on aggregate in the 1972 UEFA Cup final and lost 2-0 to Liverpool in the 2019 Champions League showpiece.

And since the Europa League’s 2009 rebrand, this will be the fourth final to be contested between two sides from the same nation, after 2011 (Porto 1-0 Braga), 2012 (Atlético Madrid 3-0 Athletic Club) and 2019 (Chelsea 4-1 Arsenal).

Victory here would make them just the second English club to win the UEFA Cup/Europa League three times, after Liverpool, with only Sevilla (seven) winning it more than three times.

However, they will have to overcome a host of injury problems if they are to end their long wait for glory, having lost creative midfielders Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall. Kulusevski (11) and Maddison (10) are two of three Spurs players in double figures for assists in all competitions this season, along with Son Heung-min (11).

Son has provided Postecoglou with a boost, at least, having made his first start since recovering from a foot injury in Friday’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa.

Son has 11 goals in all competitions this campaign, with only Brennan Johnson (17), Dominic Solanke (15) and Maddison (12) netting more often for Spurs. Many of Solanke’s best moments have come in this competition, having scored the winning penalty in the quarter-finals versus Eintracht Frankfurt and in both legs of their semi-final against Bodø/Glimt.

Solanke has also scored in each of his last four games against United in all competitions (five goals). Since Sir Alex Ferguson left the Red Devils in 2013, only one player has scored in five or more consecutive appearances against them, with Mohamed Salah doing so in six from January 2021 to March 2023.

Much of the focus in the build-up to this final has been on Postecoglou, the first Australian manager to reach a major European final.

The last time a new nation had a manager reach a major European final for the first time was when Norwegian Ole Gunnar Solskjær lost the 2021 Europa League final with United, versus Villarreal.

In contrast to their drab league form, United have had a thrilling route to the final, with their stunning 7-6 aggregate win over Lyon in the quarter-finals a particular highlight.

The Red Devils have scored 35 goals in this season’s Europa League; the only sides to score more in a single UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign are Borussia Mönchengladbach in 1972-73 (36), Porto in 2010-11 (37) and Chelsea in 2018-19 (36) – the latter duo won the trophy.

United also remain the only unbeaten side in major European competitions this season, winning nine and drawing five of their 14 Europa League games.

Head coach Amorim has repeatedly said that lifting the trophy will not solve United’s long-term issues, but he may need the credit that a victory would give him, having managed just 0.92 points per game in the Premier League since taking charge.

Amorim could become only the third manager to win a major trophy in his first season in charge of United, after José Mourinho in 2016-17 (EFL Cup and Europa League) and Erik ten Hag in 2022-23 (EFL Cup).

Forty-year-old Amorim also could become only the third manager to win a major European title with an English club while aged 40 or younger, after Howard Kendall (1984-85 Cup Winners’ Cup with Everton, 38) and Gianluca Vialli (1997-98 Cup Winners’ Cup with Chelsea, 33).

If Man Utd are to triumph, it will surely be down to Bruno Fernandes to inspire them. The United skipper has the most total goal involvements of any player in Europa League history with 46, and his 19 assists is also a competition-high.

This season, only Lyon’s Rayan Cherki (12) has been involved in more Europa League goals than Fernandes (seven goals, four assists). The only player to be involved in more for an English club in a single campaign in the competition was Olivier Giroud for Chelsea in 2018-19 (11 goals, four assists).

An end-to-end final is expected, which could just suit the likes of Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Højlund.

Only Athletic Club (30) have had more shots following high turnovers than both United (23) and Tottenham (22) in this season’s Europa League, and the Red Devils are also joint top in the 2024-25 tournament for direct attacks (32, level with Lyon).

Tottenham vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

This will be Man Utd’s ninth major European final, with only Liverpool (15) reaching more among English clubs.

However, they have failed to win three of their last four such finals – versus Barcelona in the 2008-09 and 2010-11 Champions League, and Villarreal in the 2020-21 Europa League – winning the other 2-0 against Ajax in the 2016-17 Europa League.

They also have a dismal recent record against Spurs.

Tottenham have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the EFL Cup (4-3 at home).

The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a season were Everton in 1985-86.

United are also winless in their last six meetings with Tottenham in all competitions (two draws, four defeats). The Red Devils have never gone seven without a win against Spurs before.

However, a more positive omen could be that the teams have only met once previously in major European competition, in the 1963-64 Cup Winners’ Cup last 16. United progressed 4-3 on aggregate over two legs under Matt Busby.

Tottenham vs Manchester United: Europa League Final Prediction

Many expect a close-run final, and incredibly, the Opta supercomputer is struggling to split the teams. It is currently making Tottenham the slight favourites to lift the Europa League trophy on Wednesday (50.3%), ahead of United (49.7%).

Spurs won inside 90 minutes in 37.5% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, with United doing so in 35.2%. The remaining 27.3% went to extra-time, and possibly penalties.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

Ahead of Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, we identify seven key elements that could be decisive in Bilbao.

All eyes turn to San Mamés in Bilbao on Wednesday night as two of England’s biggest clubs compete in the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League final. It’s Tottenham vs Manchester United, not only for a piece of major European silverware, but also a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League.

Both teams have endured thoroughly disappointing domestic campaigns, with the two clubs already confirming their worst Premier League finishes of all time. This is a game that could mean they finish their season on a high, however.

Here, we’ve outlined seven facets that may impact whether the Europa League trophy returns to Old Trafford or heads to north London…

Fourth Time Lucky for United?

Manchester United have lost competitive games against 12 different opponents in 2024-25, but they must be particularly sick of facing Tottenham.

Spurs have won all three of their meetings with United in all competitions this season, twice in the Premier League (3-0 away, 1-0 home) and once in the League Cup (4-3 at home).

The only opponents Spurs have ever won four games against in a single campaign were Manchester City in 1992-93, while the only side to beat the Red Devils four times in a single season were Everton in 1985-86.

Making a strong start will be key to potential United success. Across their three encounters already in 2024-25, Spurs have taken the lead inside 15 minutes in each game.

United haven’t really given themselves a chance, either. They haven’t led for a single second across any of their three matches versus Spurs this season. Over a total of 295 minutes and 41 seconds of playing time in these fixtures (including added time), Tottenham have led for 226 minutes and 42 seconds – that’s 90.2% of game time.

They have come from behind to win just six of their 58 games in 2024-25, with four of those in front of a raucous Old Trafford crowd, and two coming against the lowest-ranked Premier League sides (Southampton and Ipswich).

Even if Spurs take the lead again in this final, and despite United’s relatively poor record at turning games around in 2024-25, it won’t mean it’s game over.

Just four clubs have dropped more points from winning positions than Tottenham (26) in the Premier League this season, while only Brentford (52) top that tally in the competition since the start of 2023-24 when Ange Postecoglou arrived at the club.

Man Utd have never gone seven successive matches without a win against Spurs, and they’ve also never lost four consecutive meetings with them. Victory in Bilbao on Wednesday would be the perfect way to end that unwelcome sequence, even if they have to do it the hard way.

Whoever Wins the Europa League Will Create History

Both Man Utd and Spurs have had historically dismal league campaigns.

Based on three points for a win, 2024-25 is already guaranteed to yield Man Utd’s lowest points tally in a league season since at least 1973-74, and should they fail to beat Aston Villa on the final day, it will be their worst total since 1930-31 (29).

Spurs have won just 38 points from 37 league matches in 2024-25, and unless they win on the final day of the season versus Brighton, it’ll be their second-worst league campaign in history after 1914-15 (36 points, based on three points for a win). They’ve now lost 25 games in all competitions this term, their joint-most defeats in a single season in their history along with 1991-92 (25).

Going into the final day of the Premier League campaign this weekend, United and Spurs sit in 16th and 17th place respectively in the table – the lowest positions possible without being relegated.

Had it not been for the three promoted sides struggling to win points after coming up from the Championship, the unthinkable may have happened and one of these huge English clubs could have dropped into the second tier.

But now, some redemption is possible for one of them, as they will end the season with a European trophy and secure a place in the Champions League for 2025-26.

Whoever wins the Europa League final will set a new record for being the lowest-ranked side in their domestic league campaign to win a major European trophy.

None of the previous 177 winners of an edition of the European Cup/Champions League, UEFA Cup/Inter-Cities Fairs Cup/Europa League, the Cup Winners’ Cup or the Conference League have ever finished lower than 14th in their domestic league that season – a record currently held by West Ham United when they won the 2022-23 Conference League and finished 14th in the Premier League.

In this competition (including when it was the UEFA Cup), it’s Inter Milan who hold the record for the lowest league finish while winning the trophy. They finished 13th in Serie A in 1993-94 but also beat Austrian side SV Casino Salzburg 2-0 over two legs in the UEFA Cup final.

Where Will Tottenham’s Creativity Come From?

Under Postecoglou, Spurs have clearly had plenty of problems, but nobody can accuse them of having any issues with creating chances. In the Premier League this season, despite being set for a frankly unthinkable 17th-place finish, only four teams have scored more non-penalty goals than them (61) and only six teams have generated more non-penalty expected goals (55.3 xG).

But they head into the final in Bilbao facing a unique problem: all three of their best players in the advanced midfield position are out through injury.

In James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski, Spurs are without two of the best creators in their squad, with those two ranking first (78) and third (50) for open-play chances created in all competitions this season. While Lucas Bergvall doesn’t play the final ball anything like as much as Maddison and Kulusevski, in his first season in high-level European football he became a key player for Spurs in the last few months in particular with how he helped progress play through the centre of the pitch. His absence is most certainly going to be felt, too.

Spurs will line up without all three of them for only the third time this season, having done so in the 2-2 draw with Bournemouth in March (when both Bergvall and Maddison came off the bench) and in Friday night’s 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa. Working out where their creativity will come from in the absence of those three players is a tricky issue to resolve.

A likely midfield three of Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur and Pape Sarr will protect the defence and keep the ball well enough but there isn’t much in the way of vision and passing to unlock the United defence.

Spurs may therefore pose their biggest threat best on the transition, with pace in abundance whoever starts in the front three. Meanwhile, right-back Pedro Porro, who ranks fourth in the squad for assists in all competitions this season (nine), will need to get forward at every opportunity. The return of captain Son Heung-min to fitness will also help, with Son leading the way in the squad in open play for both assists (11, level with Kulusevski) and xG assisted (9.5).

Whether that will be enough could have a huge impact on who wins this final.

Can United Be More Clinical in Front of Goal?

European finals are not typically decided by much.

In the Champions League, Real Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund last season followed four consecutive finals decided by 1-0 results. In the Europa League, three of the last four finals have gone to penalties. And all three of the Conference League finals to date have been decided by one-goal margins.

These are tight, finely-balanced matches, often determined by small moments. That’s why clinical finishing is crucial, and the data suggests Tottenham have the personnel best equipped to capitalise on those fine margins.

The two sides have had wildly different fortunes in front of goal this season. In the Premier League, Spurs’ shot conversion rate of 12.8% is the sixth highest in the division. United’s is way down at 8.4%, the second lowest behind only Southampton, who are one of the poorest teams in the competition’s history. For context, the competition average for the season is 11.3%.

Excluding own goals, Spurs have scored 60 times from an xG total of 57.7 in the Premier League. That means they’ve scored 2.3 more goals than expected, a positive enough differential to put them seventh highest in the league.

Conversely, United have scored just 40 times (excluding own goals) from an xG total of 50.5. That’s an underperformance of 10.5 – only Crystal Palace (-13.9) have performed worse in front of goal.

Even if you add in Europa League numbers – where Manchester United have found scoring a lot easier – the Red Devils are still in the negative column for their xG differential (-7.9). Spurs still perform above expected (+6.1).

Given the top-line numbers, this won’t be particularly surprising, but of Manchester United players to have taken more than 25 shots in the league this season, only Amad Diallo (7 goals from 4.3 xG) has scored more than his underlying chances suggest he ‘should’ have done. Spurs have five players who’ve done that.

Granted, two of those players in Maddison and Kulusevski won’t be available for this game. But Son, despite a disappointing campaign to date, is certainly capable of producing high-quality moments. The South Korean is one of those rare players who has consistently outperformed his xG over the course of his career, with an exceptional ability to finish with either foot. Brennan Johnson – Spurs’ top scorer in the league – is another who’s put his chances away with impressive efficiency.

With an out-of-sorts Rasmus Højlund expected to lead the line, and the whole team generally misfiring in attack, it just doesn’t feel like Man Utd have the same profile in front of goal.

Bruno Fernandes: The Europa League King

Manchester United have become reliant on Bruno Fernandes since he signed from Sporting CP five and a half years ago. That reliance has arguably grown season by season, and he’ll prove absolutely key to any potential United success in this final.

The Europa League is his competition. No other player can really stake a claim to have impressed more in the competition since it began in 2009 following decades as the UEFA Cup.

Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than Fernandes (27), but it’s the Portuguese who leads the all-time competition rankings since 2009 for assists (19) and total goal involvements (46).

Dries Mertens – who has played 16 more games in the Europa League than the Man Utd captain – is the only man to have created more chances in the competition than Fernandes, both overall (185 vs 158) and from open play (129 vs 110).

Fernandes is a big-game player, so it doesn’t come as much surprise that his record in the knockout stages of the Europa League is exceptional.

He’s been involved in 32 goals in 33 knockout-stage appearances, again more than any other player, with 19 goals (second most) and 13 assists (the most). He also leads the way for total chances created in Europa League knockout matches (94).

He captained United in the 2021 final against Villarreal but failed to have much impact, not creating a single chance for his teammates in 120 minutes before scoring his penalty in the shootout. That eventually ended in defeat, so Fernandes will be out to make amends on Wednesday.

A Tale of Two (Erratic) Goalkeepers?

André Onana and Guglielmo Vicario are coming to the end of their second seasons in England, and it’s fair to describe them both as having had a mixed time of things since moving to the Premier League.

Onana has consistently made mistakes of all sorts for United, while Vicario struggled terribly last season at set-pieces. They are both very good goalkeepers, though, and have the potential to be match-winners or match-losers in Bilbao.

Among players at Premier League teams in 2024-25, only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen (six) has been responsible for more errors leading to goals in all competitions than Onana (five). Some of that is down to his erratic shot-stopping, which can be very, very good or woeful, but he also isn’t helped by having defenders ahead of him who aren’t good enough on the ball to receive some of his riskier passes. He is rightly very confident in his passing ability, but that can lead to him playing passes that his teammates don’t expect or are not ready for.

Errors are less common for Vicario – he has committed four fewer in his two seasons at Spurs (one) than Onana has in 2024-25 alone – but he also hasn’t always inspired total confidence. It was a consistent sight, particularly last season, to see him crowded out at corners, letting in a goal and then remonstrating with the referee for a free-kick that was never going to be awarded. Also, he can look uncomfortable and unconvincing with his passing.

However, he regularly makes huge saves to deny near-certain goals, and Spurs missed him terribly when he was out injured. He ranks among the best Premier League goalkeepers for goals prevented through their saves in all competitions this season, having prevented more than four goals.

The goalkeepers could make or break their respective team’s chances of glory.

Can Spurs’ ‘New’ Defence Stand Strong?

Tottenham’s defence isn’t ‘new’ in terms of personnel – the first-choice back four and goalkeeper have remained the same for Postecoglou’s whole Spurs tenure – but it is new in that they are now, seemingly at least, actually quite solid.

They haven’t been anything like solid in the Premier League, where they have all but given up for weeks now. But when Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie have started together ahead of Vicario in the knockout stages of the Europa League, Spurs have looked uncharacteristically formidable at the back.

There has been less of the all-action, high-pressing, gung-ho Angeball football for which Postecoglou is known, and instead a more considered, defensive-minded and controlled game (this is something we’ve covered in more depth here).

Spurs conceded just two goals in their four quarter-final and semi-final games, and in those matches recorded genuinely impressive defensive numbers, with three of their best four xG against totals in any competition all season. In their two legs against Bodø/Glimt, they conceded chances worth just 0.26 xG and 0.43 xG, while at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, their opponents generated only 0.36 xG.

With their first-choice back five starting, and a better structure in place to ensure the defence is not exposed as much as we have grown used to seeing during Postecoglou’s reign, Tottenham are much, much tougher to break down.

Aston Villa are rated as clear favourites to beat Tottenham as they look to significantly enhance their Champions League hopes on Friday. Look ahead to the game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa v Tottenham prediction and preview.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer rates Aston Villa as overwhelming favourites with a 66.3% win probability to Tottenham’s 16%.

Spurs have won 11 away Premier League games at Villa Park. Only away to Manchester City (12) do they have a better record.

Villa are unbeaten in 20 straight home matches across all competitions, their best streak in 48 years.

Aston Villa will look to take advantage of Tottenham’s attention being elsewhere when they meet at Villa Park on Friday, with Champions League qualification still on the agenda for Unai Emery’s men.

This fixture was brought forward to a Friday evening kick-off to allow Spurs more time to prepare for their UEFA Europa League final with fellow Premier League strugglers Manchester United in Bilbao on 21 May.

And Villa, who sit sixth in the Premier League, will hope to have laid down a marker by the time most of their fellow UCL hopefuls are in action.

Emery’s side are certainly in the form to do so. The Villans are unbeaten in their past 20 home games in all competitions (W14, D6), having last put together a longer sequence between September 1976 and May 1977 (24).

Moreover, since the start of March, only Newcastle United (22) have earned more points in the Premier League than Villa (21), who’ve won seven of their eight top-flight matches in that time (L1).

Ollie Watkins will look to continue where he left off with his winner in the 1-0 victory at Bournemouth last time out. That was his 75th Premier League goal and saw him become Villa’s highest goalscorer in the competition.

In contrast to Villa’s rich vein of form, it has been a domestic campaign to forget for Spurs, who sit 17th and are focusing solely on the Europa League.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have won just one of their past 10 Premier League games (D2, L7), beating rock-bottom Southampton 3-1 in April. They have now conceded in 11 straight league games, their longest run without a clean sheet since a stretch of 16 between August and December 2010.

Indeed, Spurs have now lost 24 games in all competitions this season, their second most defeats in a single campaign in their history after 1991-92 (25).

Villa will be without the suspended Jacob Ramsey after he was sent off against Bournemouth, while Marcus Rashford is expected to miss the rest of the season and Youri Tielemans is again doubtful.

Dejan Kulusevski was taken off in Spurs’ defeat to Crystal Palace last time out and won’t play again this season. James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall are also absent.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Aston Villa have won three of their past five Premier League games against Tottenham but have lost the last two. That is more victories than they managed in their previous 21 against Spurs (W2, D3, L16).

Spurs have won 11 Premier League games away to Aston Villa, winning eight of their last nine at Villa Park (L1). Only against Manchester City (12) do they have a better record.

The Villans have lost 4-0 and 4-1 in their previous two Premier League games against Tottenham.

Only against Everton (1891) and Blackburn Rovers (1935-1936) have they conceded four-plus in three consecutive league games against an opponent.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction

Spurs’ historical record at Villa Park may be good but the Opta supercomputer rates Villa’s chances at a whopping 66.3% from the 10,000 match simulations conducted.

Villa sit sixth with two games to go and that is where they are likeliest to finish (37.9%) come a week on Sunday, though they still retain a 26% chance of clinching that all-important fifth spot.

Tottenham’s domestic campaign has been truly dismal. They have a 47.5% chance of finishing exactly where they reside now, in the lowly depths of 17th place.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Friday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

Tottenham are rated as favourites as they look to punch their ticket to Bilbao for the Europa League final on Thursday. Look ahead to the game at Aspmyra Stadion with our Bodø/Glimt vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Bodø/Glimt vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

The Opta supercomputer rates Tottenham as favourites with a 44.5% win probability to Bodø/Glimt’s 30.5%.

Tottenham have not won back-to-back away games in major European competition since November 2013.

No team has scored more home goals than Bodø/Glimt (19) in the Europa League this season.

Tottenham are out to complete the job they started on home soil last week when they travel to Bodø/Glimt for the second leg of their Europa League semi-final tie.

Ange Postecoglou’s men emerged 3-1 victors at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to give themselves a commanding lead ahead of Thursday’s return clash at Aspmyra Stadion.

Past history suggests Spurs will make the 21 May final at San Mamés. In the history of the Europa League, since it was rebranded for the 2009-10 season, there have been 92 instances of a side winning the first leg of a knockout match on home soil by a two-plus goal margin, and all but nine have progressed from the tie. All eight prior semi-finalists to have done so went on to make the final.

Spurs won their previous away fixture in the Europa League 1-0 at Eintracht Frankfurt in the quarter-finals but they have not won back-to-back away matches in major European competition since November 2013 (three in the Europa League) and have not done so in knockout stages since March 2008 (two in the UEFA Cup).

Their first-leg victory represented an eighth win in the Europa League this season. Spurs have never won nine across a single campaign in major European competition before.

Dominic Solanke has impressed in continental competition this term, registering eight goal involvements (4 goals, 4 assists), representing the most by a Spurs player in Europe since Carlos Vinícius had nine (6 goals, 3 assists) in the 2020-21 Europa League.

Bodø/Glimt have been beaten in seven of their past 12 knockout matches in Europe (W3, D2), but their three wins have all come at home, including a 2-0 victory over Lazio in the last eight.

Indeed, including qualifiers, Kjetil Knutsen’s side have won nine out of their previous 10 home European fixtures (L1), scoring two-plus goals in all but one of those matches – a 2-1 defeat to Qarabag during this season’s league phase.

Moreover, no team in this season’s competition has netted more home goals than the Norwegian outfit (19). Since the 2009-10 campaign, only Bayer Leverkusen have registered more home goals in a single season (21 in 2023-24).

Kasper Høgh could be key to their hopes of mustering a famous comeback. He has netted seven goals in the Europa League for Bodø/Glimt this season, the joint-most of any player alongside Olympiacos’ Ayoub El Kaabi and Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes.

Høgh’s 50% shot conversion rate is the joint-highest of any player to score three-plus goals this season, while across the competition’s history, only Rangers defender James Tavernier in 2021-22 has netted as many goals in a campaign while holding a higher conversion rate (7 goals – 53.8%).

Solanke is expected to be fit for Spurs after coming off during the first leg last week, but James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall are unlikely to play again this season, while skipper Son Heung-min remains a huge doubt.

Bodø/Glimt have captain Patrick Berg and Hakon Evjen available after they missed last week’s game through suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards, while Andreas Helmersen returns from the ban he received for a red card against Lazio in the quarter-finals.

Bodø/Glimt vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Their first-leg encounter was the first time these sides had ever met in European competition.

Tottenham’s 3-1 victory made it five wins from five against Norwegian opposition in major European competition. They have never faced sides from a specific country more often while maintaining a 100% win-rate.

Bodø/Glimt, meanwhile, have lost all four of their matches against English opponents, including their solitary fixture on home soil against Arsenal in October 2022 (a 1-0 defeat).

Each of the other three defeats have seen the Norwegian side concede exactly three goals.

Bodø/Glimt vs Tottenham Prediction

In terms of the match itself, Tottenham are rated as favourites with a 44.5% chance of victory from the 10,000 simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer.

Conversely, the home side have a 30.5% chance of emerging with the win on home soil, with the draw a 25.0% probability.

When it comes to the competition overall, Spurs reach the final in 91.1% of the simulations conducted. Only Man Utd (97.6%) own a higher probability of the remaining four teams.

Postecoglou’s men have a 43.2% of winning the competition, with Bodø/Glimt having just a 3.2% chance of lifting the trophy in Bilbao later this month.

Bodø/Glimt vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off in Norway on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Will the Reds secure the league title?

Liverpool vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

Liverpool need just a point to win the Premier League title. The Opta supercomputer gives them an 87.7% chance of securing it on Sunday, and a 71.8% likelihood of sealing it in style with a win over Tottenham Hotspur.

Mohamed Salah has scored 15 goals against Spurs in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (16) in his European club career.

Spurs have won just two of their last 24 Premier League games against Liverpool (D6 L16), with both victories coming at home.

The destination of the Premier League title is close to being confirmed. It has been a relative procession for Liverpool, who are 12 points clear at the summit and know just one more point will be enough against Tottenham Hotspur to get the job done following Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace on Wednesday.

Arne Slot is set to become the first Dutchman to win the Premier League, while he will be just the fifth boss to win the competition in his debut season, after Jose Mourinho (2004-05), Carlo Ancelotti (2009-10), Manuel Pellegrini (2013-14) and Antonio Conte (2016-17).

Only a loss for the hosts will delay the seemingly inevitable, and Liverpool have lost just two league games this season. Their first defeat came at home to Nottingham Forest in September, while their second came at Fulham earlier this month. Even in that most recent loss at Craven Cottage, the Reds could consider themselves somewhat unfortunate – generating 1.5 expected goals to their opponents’ 0.74.

Slot has averaged 2.39 points per game in the league this season. To put that into perspective, only three of his eight full seasons in charge did Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool average more points per game than Slot’s Reds have so far this term – in 2018-19 (2.55), 2019-20 (2.60) and 2021-22 (2.42).

With five games remaining, Liverpool have already won as many Premier League games this season as they did last term (24), while victory in this game would also see them equal their points tally from last season (82) with four games to go.

They would also become just the seventh team to win the title with four or more matches remaining.

Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 29 Premier League games, since a 1-0 loss to Forest at Anfield in September. It is the second-longest scoring streak in a single campaign, after Arsenal, who scored in all 38 games in 2001-02.

While the Reds are surging towards glory, it could hardly have been a more different story for Spurs this term.

Ange Postecoglou bullishly promised to win a trophy this season, and while that could still happen – Spurs are into the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa League – his team sit 16th in the league. They are clear of any relegation danger, but that says more about the lack of quality of the bottom three than it does about Spurs, who only have 37 points from their 33 games so far.

They have lost 18 Premier League games this season, only losing more in 1993-94 and 2003-04 (19 both times). Their worst-ever finish in the competition is 15th, so Spurs are on course to at least match that, if not set a new record low altogether.

Spurs are 42 points behind Liverpool (79) coming into this match. It is the second-most points they have been behind a side they are facing in the Premier League – they were 43 behind Arsenal when they met at White Hart Lane in April 2004, with the Gunners securing the title against them that day.

One hope Spurs may have is Richarlison, who netted in the 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday. The Brazilian has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances (four goals), though Spurs have still lost all four of those games. Indeed, only Wolves star Matheus Cunha (five) has scored in more defeats than Richarlison this term. The former Everton man has also scored four league goals against the Reds.

At the other end, though, Mohamed Salah has scored 15 goals against Spurs in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (16) in his European club career. Eleven of those 15 goals have come in the Premier League, with only Alan Shearer (14) netting more against Spurs in the competition.

The Egyptian remains the Premier League’s top scorer with 27 goals this season, though has gone four league games without scoring, having not previously failed to find the net in more than two consecutive games in 2024-25. Salah will no doubt be keen to end that drought on Sunday as Liverpool aim to seal the Premier League title on their home turf.

Liverpool vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

Spurs have conceded 10 goals against Liverpool this season, losing 6-3 in the Premier League and 4-0 in the EFL Cup semi-final second leg (winning 1-0 in the first leg).

They last conceded more against an opponent in 2013-14 (11 vs Manchester City), while the most they have conceded is 14 (vs Chelsea in 2001-02).

Spurs have won just two of their last 24 Premier League games against Liverpool (D6 L16), with both victories coming at home. They have also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 18 against the Reds in the competition.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 15 home games against Spurs in all competitions (W11 D4), winning the last three while scoring four goals each time.

Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool overwhelming favourites, with the Reds handed a 71.8% win probability.

Spurs’ chances are ranked at a meagre 12.3%, while the chance of a draw – which would be enough to see Liverpool win the title – is 15.9%. That therefore means there is an 87.7% chance that the Reds will be celebrating clinching first place on the final whistle on Sunday.

Liverpool vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend a Anfield, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview. Can Nuno Espírito Santo get their Champions League push back on track?

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Stats: The Key Insights

Nottingham Forest are the slightest of favourites to come out on top on Monday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 37.4%% chance of winning compared to Tottenham’s 37.0% probability.

Only the current bottom three clubs in the Premier League have won fewer points in the competition since the start of December than Tottenham (18 from 20 games).

Forest have lost just two of their last 35 league games played on Easter Monday (W21 D12).

Nottingham Forest’s spot in the Premier League top five is coming under threat, and they travel to Tottenham Hotspur on Monday looking to reignite their Champions League push.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s side had started to close on second-place Arsenal last month, but after losing their last two matches, have now slipped out of the top five as the European race heats up.

However, only once before under Nuno have they suffered three consecutive defeats, doing so in February and March last season, and he will be determined not to lose at his former employer on Monday.

Forest have suffered on the road of late, though, having lost four of their last five Premier League away games (W1), after losing just two of their first 11 such games this season (W7 D2).

Their main aim will be to give themselves a solid base by shoring up their defence again. Forest have conceded just 38 goals so far, with only the top two (Liverpool – 31, Arsenal – 27) letting in fewer.

Perhaps the Easter period will help turn the tide. Forest have only lost two of their last 35 league games played on Easter Monday (W21 D12). And in the top-flight, their record is even better. They’re unbeaten in 16 (W13 D3) since a 1-0 loss at Chelsea in 1966.

It is not, however, a day that brings joy to Spurs. They have lost their last two Premier League games played on Easter Monday, with both of those defeats coming at home (2-1 vs Manchester United in 2006 and 2-1 v Norwich City in 2012).

Ange Postecoglou’s side received a much-needed boost last midweek, though, sealing their place in the Europa League semi-finals after a 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in the second leg and easing some of the pressure on their manager.

A 4-2 defeat to Wolves last weekend piled more misery on Spurs in the Premier League, though, and they currently sit in 16th place in a 20-team league table.

Since their 4-0 hammering of Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in November, only Ipswich Town (13), Leicester City (8) and Southampton (7) have picked up fewer points than Spurs (18), who have lost 12 out of 20 games after beating the reigning champions (W5 D3).

Their 17 defeats this season are also the most they have suffered in a league campaign since 2003-04 (19, finishing 14th). They have also lost 16 of their last 20 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (W3 D1).

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head

Tottenham have won each of their last three home league games against Nottingham Forest, having won just one of the previous 11 against them prior (D2 L8).

Forest’s 1-0 win in the reverse fixture ended a six-game losing streak against Spurs in the Premier League. They last did the league double over Tottenham in the 1996-97 campaign.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

There isn’t much between the sides for this one, with the Opta supercomputer predicting that Nottingham Forest have the slightest edge at 37.4% compared to Spurs’ 37.0%.

A draw could be the most likely result, with the probability of that 25.6%.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Monday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview. Can Nuno Espírito Santo get their Champions League push back on track?

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Stats: The Key Insights

Tottenham Hotspur are slight favourites to come out on top on Monday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 38.9% chance of winning.

Since 23 November, only the bottom three have earned fewer points than Spurs’ 18.

Nottingham Forest have lost just two of their last 35 league games played on Easter Monday (W21 D12).

Nottingham Forest’s spot in the Premier League top five is coming under threat, and they travel to Tottenham Hotspur on Monday looking to reignite their Champions League push.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s side had started to close on second-place Arsenal last month, but after losing their last two matches, have slipped out of third place as the European race heats up.

However, only once before under Nuno have they suffered three consecutive defeats, doing so in February and March last season, and he will be determined not to lose at his former employer on Monday.

Forest have suffered on the road of late, though, having lost four of their last five Premier League away games (W1), after losing just two of their first 11 such games this season (W7 D2).

Their main aim will be to give themselves a solid base by shoring up their defence again. Forest have conceded just 38 goals so far, with only the top two (Liverpool – 31, Arsenal – 27) letting in fewer.

Perhaps the Easter period will help turn the tide. The Tricky Trees have only lost two of their last 35 league games played on Easter Monday (W21 D12).

And in the top-flight, their record is even better. They’re unbeaten in 16 (W13 D3) since a 1-0 loss at Chelsea in 1966.

It is not, however, a day that brings joy to Spurs. They have lost their last two Premier League games played on Easter Monday, with both of those defeats coming at home (2-1 v Manchester United in 2006 and 2-1 v Norwich City in 2012).

Ange Postecoglou’s side received a much-needed boost in midweek, though, sealing their place in the Europa League semi-finals after a 1-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in the second leg and easing some of the pressure on their manager.

A 4-2 defeat to Wolves last weekend piled more misery on Spurs in the Premier League, though, and if results don’t go their way this weekend, they could be sitting as low as 17th in the table by kick-off.

Since their 4-0 hammering of Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in November, only Ipswich Town (13), Leicester City (8) and Southampton (6) have picked up fewer points than Spurs (18), who have lost 12 out of 20 games after beating the reigning champions (W5 D3).

Their 17 defeats this season are also the most they have suffered in a league campaign since 2003-04 (19, finishing 14th). They have also lost 16 of their last 20 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (W3 D1).

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head

Tottenham have won each of their last three home league games against Forest, having won just one of the previous 11 against them prior (D2 L8).

Forest’s 1-0 win in the reverse fixture ended a six-game losing streak against Spurs in the Premier League. They last did the league double over Tottenham in the 1996-97 campaign.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

There isn’t much between the sides for this one, with the Opta supercomputer just giving Spurs the edge at 38.9%.

Forest’s chances of victory sit at 36.3%, so a draw could be the most likely result, with the probability of that 24.9%.

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Can Tottenham reach just the fourth European semi-final in their history? We look ahead to Thursday’s UEFA Europa League quarter-final second leg at Deutsche Bank Park with our Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham prediction and preview.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights

Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge according to the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 40.6% chance of victory.

Tottenham have lost six of their previous seven away games in knockout ties against German opposition.

Spurs have only kept one clean sheet in their previous 19 matches on the road in the UEFA Europa League.

It’s safe to say Eintracht Frankfurt and Tottenham Hotspur had contrasting domestic matches after they drew 1-1 in London last week.

The German side enjoyed a 3-0 home win over Heidenheim, which kept them third in the Bundesliga table. Whereas Spurs delivered an error-strewn performance at Molineux on Sunday, losing 4-2 to a Wolves side who remain one of just five clubs below them in the Premier League.

Tottenham will need to be much better to win this tie. History is very much against them, though, and in more ways than one.

Spurs have lost six of their last seven knockout stage games away to German opponents in Europe (winning the other), failing to score in four of the last five. The most recent instance saw them suffer a 3-0 loss to RB Leipzig as part of a 4-0 aggregate defeat in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League in 2019-20.

Tottenham have also only kept one clean sheet in their 19 most recent away matches in the UEFA Europa League. That came in a 1-0 win over Qarabag in November 2015. Ange Postecoglou can at least point to a result that suggests these nuggets may not matter, as his men won 3-2 at Hoffenheim in the league phase of this competition in January.

But Hoffenheim haven’t been at anything like the standard of Eintracht Frankfurt this season. Tottenham’s opponents this time around have a much stronger attack, which will likely maintain Spurs’ issues with recording clean sheets in the Europa League.

Eintracht have averaged over two goals per home match in this competition over the years, scoring 55 times in 27 matches. Their key man at Deutsche Bank Park in Europe this term has been Hugo Ekitiké, who leads their standings for Europa League goals and assists at home with three and two respectively.

The 22-year-old Frenchman scored and set up a goal at the weekend after opening the scoring in the 1-1 draw at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last Thursday. Only two strikers have been involved in more goals in a Europa League campaign for the club, so Ekitiké is unquestionably the man for Tottenham to be most worried about.

Their own talisman might set a club record here, though. If Son Heung-Min appears in this game he will overtake Harry Kane to become Tottenham’s all-time leading appearance maker in major European competition, with 68 games played.

Son is only averaging a goal every 217 minutes in the UEFA Europa League this term, however, which is his worst ratio in an edition where he’s made more than two appearances.

It’s also not guaranteed he will start this match, as he missed the defeat at Wolves as a precautionary measure following a minor foot injury. Son aside, Kevin Danso may be able to return here, with Radu Dragusin remaining Postecoglou’s only long-term absentee at present.

Frankfurt potentially have a few more injury problems than their visitors here. Aurèle Amenda will miss the game, while Junior Dina Ebimbe and Ansgar Knauff look to be touch and go in terms of their potential involvement. Some good news for manager Dino Toppmöller is that Kevin Trapp looks set to return in goal.

With the tie level and home advantage on their side, Eintracht Frankfurt will feel positive about their chances of reaching a third Europa League semi-final, having previously done so in 2018-19 and 2021-22, ultimately lifting the trophy in the latter campaign. The only team to have qualified for more than three semi-finals in the competition ahead of this season are Sevilla, who have done so five times.

Tottenham have progressed from just one of their previous 10 knockout ties in European competition after failing to win the first leg at home. In fairness, it was one of the most famous nights in the history of the club, as they progressed past Ajax to reach the Champions League final in 2018-19.

It may take a performance of similarly heroic proportions for Spurs to reach their first European semi-final since then, just the fourth in their history.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Head-to-Head

The last meeting of these teams in Germany ended all square. However, that 0-0 draw occurred in the group stage of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League, so it was not as important as this knockout clash.

Eintracht’s only prior victory over Tottenham occurred in the preceding instance of them playing in Germany. As it was way back in 1982, it’s only of use as an omen for the Bundesliga club rather than being relevant to the present-day sides.

With Spurs having two wins and a draw from their three meetings in the last three seasons, the balance of power in the recent head-to-head lies with them.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Prediction

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Eintracht Frankfurt. A home win was the outcome from 40.6% of its 10,000 simulations of the match.

As you would guess from that percentage, the margin is not huge though. Tottenham’s hopes of a win in 90 minutes are rated as a 32.8% possibility.

Should the 26.6% likelihood of a draw come to pass, we will be heading to extra-time and possibly penalties.

Taking all eventualities into consideration, the supercomputer gives Eintracht a 53.9% likelihood of reaching the semi-finals, therefore putting Spurs’ chances at 46.1%.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.