Welcome to week 22 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where it’s time to talk about goalless draws.
Nobody likes a nil-nil, do they? A former editor of mine once went apoplectic because we carried a report on a 0-0 match on the back page of the newspaper. He never really did understand football, but I kind of got his point.
Maybe that has left me with a phobia of nil-nils. There have been 210 games so far in this Premier League season. And how many times have I predicted one would end 0-0? The answer is … nil.
If this was the 2023-24 season, when the scoring rate soared to the highest rate in the English top flight in almost 60 years (an average of 3.28 goals per game), such a goal-oriented outlook would have been merited. There were only 11 nil-nils in that entire 380-game campaign.
But last season saw the number of goalless draws jump to 16 — and this season we have already seen that many despite having only just passed the halfway stage. We’re on course for 29, almost three times as many as two seasons ago. There were three in week 19 alone, and another two in week 21.
Why might that be? Well, it looked like several teams were running on empty towards the end of a congested festive programme, with injuries and fatigue taking a heavy toll. More generally, clubs often start a season with the intention of playing expansively, only to take a more pragmatic approach as the going gets tougher and the pressure for results increases.
But beyond that, I would argue it comes back to something I wrote about in the opening weeks of this campaign about the move towards less fluent, more attritional playing styles and an increased emphasis on dead-ball situations rather than taking risks in open play.
The scoring rate has picked up since those early stages of the campaign, with some excellent matches, but it’s still only 2.8 goals per game, so it does feel like time to open my mind to predicting 0-0 draws.
If you’re new to this column, each week since the season began in August, four of us — six-year-old Wilfred, a guest subscriber, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the results on a weekly basis.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so for example, I got two points in the previous round of games for backing Nottingham Forest to win at West Ham, while the algorithm got four points for predicting that Wolves would pick up a 1-1 draw at Everton.
Last week’s guest subscriber, Everton fan Ian from New York City, picked up two bonus points — the first for the Crystal Palace-Aston Villa stalemate, the second for Burnley’s draw with Manchester United.
Despite Ian’s best efforts, the subscribers remain bottom of the table, with the algorithm picking up form in recent weeks.
This week’s guest subscriber is Hannah, a 40-year-old Newcastle United supporter from Bristol. Good luck, Hannah.
Finally, eagle-eyed readers might have noticed that I referred last week to “seven-year-old Wilfred”. Some of you even wished him a happy birthday in the comments section. There’s absolutely no doubt who is the readers’ favourite — and rightly so.
A confession: it was my mistake. He is still only six years old. I think my error just goes to underline the extent to which he has got into my head over the past weeks since becoming the greatest threat to my hopes of winning this challenge.
So, yes, Wilfred is still six. And unlike me, he hasn’t been afraid of predicting goalless draws. It’s time to be bold by being boring. Here goes.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Saturday, 12.30pm UK/7.30am ET
Hannah says: "Looking at this week's fixtures, the Manchester derby is the obvious highlight. Both sides will be hungry for a big win, but I predict that Pep Guardiola's team will heap more misery on Old Trafford. After losing ground in the title race, I'm backing Erling Haaland to lead City to victory."
Manchester United 0-2 Manchester City
Oli says: "When United parted company with Ruben Amorim, their statement was all about how it was “the right time to make a change” that would “give the team the best opportunity of the highest possible Premier League finish”. Does the appointment of Michael Carrick for the rest of the season do that?
I was an Amorim sceptic, but they were sixth in the Premier League — only four points clear of 14th-placed Crystal Palace, but also just three off fourth-placed Liverpool — when they pulled the trigger. It was far from great — in fact, it was pretty far from good most of the time — but it looked more viable in the short term than pivoting to yet another spell under interim management.
Broadly speaking, there have been two types of Manchester derby over the past decade or so: a) the one-sided ones where City dominate from start to finish and b) the kind where United dig their heels in, defend in a disciplined manner and battle their way to a draw, or occasionally even a win. I suspect this is the lesser-seen third sort: United apply themselves well in Carrick’s first game in charge, but are still outclassed — in midfield in particular.
Manchester United 1-3 Manchester City
Oli’s other predictions
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace
It’s five Premier League games without a win now for promoted Sunderland after their strong start to the season, but they are still battling, still loving life, still riding the crest of a wave. The same cannot be said confidently of Palace, whose run of nine games without a win in all competitions (including that shock FA Cup defeat, as holders, by non-League Macclesfield) seems symptomatic of a state of flux with manager Oliver Glasner and captain Marc Guehi in the final months of their contracts. I recommend this excellent episode of The Athletic FC Podcast, which left me with the depressing feeling that Palace will never have it better than they did in 2025. It’s so hard for clubs outside the Premier League’s super-rich elite to punch above their weight on a consistent basis.
Sunderland 0-0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea vs Brentford
Liam Rosenior’s first Premier League game in charge of Chelsea is an awkward one against a Brentford team who are, remarkably, looking down on their more illustrious west London neighbours from fifth place in the Premier League. Brentford are difficult opponents: “strong, direct, relentless”, as Sunderland head coach Regis Le Bris described them recently, and with a centre-forward, Igor Thiago, whose total of 16 Premier League goals this season is second only to Haaland. Despite this, I’ll predict a Chelsea win. You know what they say. The form book goes out the window on derby day...
Chelsea 2-1 Brentford
Liverpool vs Burnley
There is a small but noisy faction of Liverpool fans on social media who are still furious that head coach Arne Slot was not sacked in November after a run of nine defeats in 12 games. Imagine that had happened. Who would they have turned to? Andoni Iraola? Steven Gerrard as interim? Would they, six weeks later, have gone 11 games unbeaten? Obviously, we’ll never know, but I suspect they would not. There will come a time to evaluate Slot’s future after what has been an extremely difficult campaign to date, but while Chelsea and Manchester United chose to twist at its halfway stage, Liverpool look stronger for having stuck with the man who led them to the title last season in his first year in charge.
Liverpool 2-0 Burnley
Tottenham vs West Ham
This is it: the first time I’ve predicted a Tottenham win since week six. I backed them to draw six and lose nine of their previous 15 games and, while the reality was better than that (three wins, four draws, eight defeats), my pessimism about their prospects was not ill-founded. The rumblings from the dressing room are so miserable, and head coach Thomas Frank must realise that the supporters’ goodwill is evaporating. So, why back them this time? Because… they’re playing West Ham.
Tottenham 2-1 West Ham
Leeds vs Fulham
These two teams’ recent improvement has been spectacular. It’s summed up by the fact that Leeds' Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Harry Wilson of Fulham are both deservedly up for the Premier League’s player of the month award for December — and I would suggest they should be one and two for goal of the month too, after finishing off wonderful team moves against Sunderland and Crystal Palace, respectively. I’m in danger of talking myself out of it, but I’ve made this my second nil-nil prediction. Both teams have evolved tactically since a 1-0 Fulham win at Craven Cottage in September, but I suspect Daniel Farke and Leeds will be keen to tighten up after that 4-3 defeat at Newcastle United in their previous league outing.
Leeds 0-0 Fulham
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
It's crazy to think that, this time last year, Forest were third in the Premier League, two points behind Arsenal and six adrift of leaders Liverpool. Last season now looks like an outlier for these two clubs: for Forest, a thrilling break from the norm of battling in the lower reaches of the Premier League; for Arsenal, a blip on their upward trajectory under Mikel Arteta's management. This is another tough test for the Premier League leaders, but they are now so good at restricting their opponents, particularly in this kind of game.
Nottingham Forest 0-2 Arsenal
Wolves vs Newcastle
I’ve successfully predicted three Newcastle wins in a row. The law of averages tells me I shouldn’t go for four on the bounce, particularly given their next opponents’ improvement in recent weeks, but this is the 2025-26 season and the law of Wolves losing matches still holds sway. Then again, the fixtures are piling up for Newcastle, with the second leg of a Carabao Cup semi-final against Manchester City and at least another two Champions League games to play in the coming weeks. I’ll go for another Newcastle win, but hesitantly.
Wolves 1-2 Newcastle
Aston Villa vs Everton
Since winning promotion in 2018-19, Villa are unbeaten in 13 Premier League matches against Everton (there was a defeat in the Carabao Cup in 2023). That’s a reasonable illustration of how poor Everton have been for most of that period — and of how, in that context, their 2025-26 season should be viewed as one of welcome progress despite some frustrating inconsistencies. I can’t see them ending that poor run against Villa, though.
Aston Villa 2-1 Everton
Brighton vs Bournemouth
This feels like the most “Could go either way” fixture in the Premier League this weekend. Both teams are very good on their day without being wholly reliable. When two teams are well matched, you would usually go for a draw, but there’s enough variation in these two, performance-wise, to make me think it will swing one way or the other. Home win.
Brighton 2-1 Bournemouth