Welcome back to The Athletic’s relegation battle tracker, where our data and tactics writers examine the key trends behind the fight for Premier League survival.
With further victories for Leeds United and Nottingham Forest pulling them further from the relegation zone, it looks like it will be a straight shootout between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United in a fight to avoid the drop.
Three games remain for each, and it seems like things are set to go down to the final day.
With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, allow our analysts to assess the latest twists and turns as we enter the final four games.
What has changed since the last gameweek?
It is no exaggeration to say that Leeds and Nottingham Forest are two of the most in-form teams in the Premier League right now. Only four sides are unbeaten in their last 5+ games — they are Manchester City, Bournemouth, Leeds and Forest, with the threat of relegation looking increasingly distant.
Leeds’ 3-1 victory over Burnley was pretty routine, but Forest’s 3-1 victory at Chelsea was among the best results of gameweek 35 — and they were good value for the win.
Given their exploits in the Europa League semi-final, Vitor Pereira rang the changes to his starting line-up on Monday afternoon, but Forest took a 3-0 lead before an hour was on the clock, with clinical efficiency from Taiwo Awoniyi and Igor Jesus.
The only blemish, quite literally, was the horrible facial injury suffered by talisman Morgan Gibbs-White, who came off second best in a challenge with Chelsea goalkeeper Robert Sanchez. Given how influential he has been in thrusting Forest away from relegation threat, you would hope he can appear in the final weeks of the season.
Elsewhere, West Ham’s 3-0 loss to Brentford was a decisive result in their chances of survival. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side actually played rather well despite the scoreline, but the result is far more important than the performance at this stage of the season.
That drop back into the relegation zone came about after Spurs’ 2-1 victory over a much-changed Aston Villa side on Sunday evening, with signs of life in Roberto De Zerbi’s side.
Spurs pressed excellently and appeared to have had an injection of energy as they went 2-0 up within the opening half an hour. While Villa’s own performance left little to be admired, Spurs were good value for the win as they look to continue to build some momentum to get them over the line by the end of the month.
Who is looking stronger?
If we look at the history books, Leeds should be confident that safety is now assured.
No team has ever been relegated from the Premier League with 43 points in a 38-game season, giving Daniel Farke an extra bit of wriggle room in the final three games.
Given how tight things have been in the league table this season, Leeds will want to hoover up a couple more points for good measure, but the evidence suggests that fans can sleep a little easier after their excellent run of form in the past few weeks.
The same can be said for Forest on 42 points, with their momentum coming at the perfect time of the season with a seven-game unbeaten run under Vitor Pereira.
Two goals from Awoniyi on Monday would be welcomed, but the attacking firepower of Igor Jesus, Chris Wood and Gibbs-White has been the difference in recent games. With 16 goals in their last five Premier League games, Forest have been due a little spike in luck in front of goal.
Looking at the graphic below, they were scoring fewer goals than the quality of their chances suggested, but a recent glut of finishes has seen those fortunes reverse at a crucial time.
It would be oversimplistic to say that Spurs are now looking strong, but De Zerbi has picked up crucial points since arriving, with Spurs securing back-to-back victories for the first time since their opening two games of the season.
That is made all the more impressive when you consider the limited options that De Zerbi has to choose from in his squad. According to The Athletic’s measure — looking at the consistency of starting and substitute minutes played — Spurs have the fourth-lowest squad stability this season.
With so many injuries to key players in the squad, the patchiness of the graphic below shows how rarely any of their head coaches have been able to name a consistent starting XI.
Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?
Leeds should feel confident about their current situation already, but their remaining games are also favourable. According to Opta’s Power Rankings — denoting the strength of each team — Farke’s side have the easiest run-in of any side fighting to avoid the drop.
Forest also look set for safety, but they will be grateful that they have cashed in the points lately — with some nasty fixtures against Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth in their final three games.
Momentum can be an unquantifiable (but cruel) beast when you are struggling at the bottom of the table. West Ham looked to have breathed life back into their season in recent weeks, but last weekend’s loss comes at the worst time before facing title-chasing Arsenal on Sunday.
An away trip to Newcastle does not look easy, potentially putting even more pressure on their final-day clash with Leeds at the end of the month.
If West Ham lose and Spurs beat Leeds on Monday, the gap will be four points between 17th and 18th. With Nuno’s side having a significantly worse goal difference, the task of making up a five-point gap across two games must surely be one step too far.
What does the supercomputer say?
The dial has shifted from last week.
Opta’s supercomputer has stayed strong on the current projections for Leeds and Forest, with their respective victories last weekend suggesting that something cataclysmic would need to happen for them to get sucked back into a relegation fight.
Spurs’ victory at Villa has seen a notable drop in their chances. Last week saw them have a 58 per cent probability of relegation, which has plummeted to 19 per cent this week.
West Ham fans might want to look away now, with their loss to Brentford seeing their chances of relegation swing from 38 per cent to 80 per cent within a week.
It is not just the loss that informs that probability, but more the tricky fixture list that they have to come. Nuno’s side previously had their destiny in their own hands, but now they will have to hope for results elsewhere to go their way to stand a chance of staying in the division.