Cartilage Free Captain

Surely I am not the only one who has simply ignored the struggles of Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League for basically all of 2025. Perhaps it started as numbness, but as the Europa League moved to the knockout rounds, and even the League Cup started to look promising, there was just not a lot that mattered in the league. 17th place is historically bad, but would 10th really mean anything different?

No, this season is trophy-or-bust for Spurs, and Wednesday’s Europa League final is the culmination of one of the strangest journeys in recent memory. This is heightened by Manchester United’s oddly similar struggles, as both English sides have put all of their eggs in the European basket. The stakes are incredibly high for both teams: Champions League next season or literally nothing, hope to build upon or impending disgrace, mockery and ridicule avoided or engulfed.

Even with these polarizing outcomes, I have not really thought about what a loss here would mean. I imagine the weight of 17th place and the disaster of the past nine months would finally come crashing down, making this summer pretty miserable. However, 90 minutes of glory would allow us to never even have to consider that possibility. Come On You Spurs!

Europa League Final: Tottenham Hotspur (17th) vs. Manchester United (16th)

Date: Wednesday, May 21

Time: 3:00 pm ET, 8:00 pm UK

Location: San Mames Stadium, Bilbao, Spain

TV: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+ (US), TNT Sports 1 (UK)

These teams now meet for the fourth time in this season, an event that is not unheard of but certainly an uncommon situation. Tottenham won convincingly at Old Trafford, crushing Erik ten Hag’s side 3-0, then won in North London in the League Cup, a chaotic 4-3 affair in United’s first month under Ruben Amorim. The third contest was a 1-0 victory for Spurs at home again in February, though both sides were less concerned about the Premier League by then.

How much can really be taken away from these contests? I guess it is better to be the team with three wins than with three losses, but much has changed over the course of the season, including the manager for United. Personnel has fluctuated a bunch for both; notably, Spurs started six different center backs across the three previous contests, though still recorded clean sheets in two of them. The past does not dictate the future, but it is clear which team has played better in these head-to-heads, at least.

The center of it all

While Ange Postecoglou will have his preferred back four available, his side is missing its three most creative players, which is unfortunately on brand for his tenure. As a result, Yves Bissouma and Rodrigo Bentancur look destined to start in midfield, with no obvious source of creativity ahead of them. The options are plentiful, yet none inspire a ton of confidence – Wilson Odobert, Dominic Solanke, and Pape Sarr all have strengths, but none are perfect fits with those set to be around them.

An optimistic perspective would point to Spurs’ Europa League tactics over the past three rounds, with a willingness to concede possession and opting for pragmatic, defensive structure. United will enjoy holding the ball and trying to drive forward, primarily via Bruno Fernandes, but the attack’s production has been much better in chaotic passages of play vs. breaking down a well-positioned backline. Physicality leans heavily in Tottenham’s favor here, and if the midfield holds its ground, the opponents will struggle to score.

This is still a lot of pressure to accept. Since Bissouma and Bentancur are unexpected to offer much going forward, they absolutely must have stellar performances breaking up any oncoming play and muddying up the center of the pitch. Frustrating Fernandes and the United attack then capitalizing on the counter feels like a viable path to victory, but the margin for error is slim to play this way.

Sunshine and stars

Sometimes it takes a standout performance or two to bring the trophy home, and the obvious candidate for that sort of effort is Heung-min Son. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, Son looks healthy enough to contribute, and no player in this squad deserves this win more than this captain. It has been a tough season for Son, even without the injuries, but he offers the type of attacking instinct and sharpshooting that can snag a goal against the run of play.

On the other end of the pitch is Cristian Romero, a different type of star and leader. The center back has been inconsistent since winning the World Cup, but the time might be right for him to have a legendary performance on this sort of stage. United is going to force the defense to be engaged the entire match, but Romero has the type of talent to control the penalty area and stop real threats before they materialize. Should Spurs see this one out, I would expect him and Micky van de Ven to be a huge reason why.

The final piece to all of this is Postecoglou, of course. His second-season-trophy comments will become legendary with a win, and honestly he deserves all of the praise should he fulfill his own prophecy. There might never be a bigger singular match for a manager: lose and surely be sacked, but win and become an undeniable club legend. For all of his faults and failures, I trust that Postecoglou will make the right moves to give his team a great shot at finally ending this horrid trophy drought. The opportunity is there — go and seize it.

Ange Postecoglou gave his final press conference today, ahead of Wednesday’s Europa League final against Manchester United in Bilbao. Straight away, he answered a couple of questions that have been at the forefront of Tottenham Hotspur fans’ minds — what’s up with Pape Sarr, and might Lucas Bergvall actually play?

There was good news, and there was some disappointing news — Sarr appears to be fine and fit for the final, but despite some crazy rumors floating around social media, Lucas Bergvall will not feature despite being on the plane to Bilbao.

“[The team news is] Pretty much the same as last week. No, Lucas isn’t available. Same as we were as of last week.”

Spurs fans got overly excited this past week as training videos and photos emerged that appeared to show Bergvall training on grass and walking around without a boot. Bergvall was injured in the win over Bodø/Glimt in Norway, and the reporting at the time was that he’d be out for the remainder of the season. Well, that apparently still holds.

I think the majority of the copium was coming from the recent videos that showed Spurs players boarding the plane to Bilbao, and Lucas was seen walking more or less normally. That said, Radu Dragusin was also seen boarding the plane as well, and nobody’s expecting him to play. My guess is that the club extended the option to any player on the team who’s physically able to travel the opportunity to watch their team potentially lift their first trophy since 2009. (That, sadly, doesn’t appear to include Dejan Kulusevski, who recently had surgery on his knee.)

Tottenham have beaten Manchester United three times this season — a 3-0 win at Old Trafford, a 4-3 home win in the League Cup, and a 1-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. But when asked, Postecoglou said that all those results go out the window, and they don’t really matter.

“It’s a final and you know that those kind of things aren’t important. If we had lost all three games your question would probably be ‘do you feel the pressure because you can’t beat them’, so… What I do know, and I’ve been in this situation a few times in my career in the big games, even your form going into it, even if you’ve got terrible form… it doesn’t matter.

”What matters is how the players cope with the occasion tomorrow. How they cope with understanding the importance of the game. For both clubs, you just don’t know how players are going to react to such a big occasion.

“My role in that is to try to prepare the players in the best possible way and also to prepare the players for Manchester United to be at their best, and that’s what you have to prepare for. If you prepare that way, and then you go out there and play to the potential that you can, you give yourself an opportunity.

“But I don’t think it really matters what you’ve done before any opposition when it comes to big games. Maybe in the league it’s a bit different. But in a final, everything gets decided on the day.”

The other big item discussed was, obviously, Ange’s future. There appears to be an assumption in the media at the moment that Postecoglou will leave Tottenham at the end of the season whether he wins the Europa League or not, despite the context of the season and that he still clearly has the support of his Spurs players. Ange was asked whether he has discussed his future with his team, and he replied that his focus has been entirely on tomorrow’s match.

“No, because I think again that would not be really help with what is before us right now. I’ve said to the lads from day one, nothing is guaranteed in life, nothing is guaranteed in sport. You just need to try and make sure you take every opportunity before you. That’s what I have done my whole career. I’ve been in this position before where the big game was the last game I managed. It’s not unusual territory for me. I have always navigated it pretty well because for me nothing is more important than my responsibility for this football club and its fans that tomorrow me, the players, our mind is only on one thing and that is to create something special.

“My future is assured, mate. I wouldn’t be the first person who changes job. We all change jobs. I am sure you’ve had more than one job. My future is assured, I have got a beautiful family, I’ve got a great life, I’ll keep on winning trophies until I finish – wherever that is. Don’t worry about my future, mate. My future is not intertwined with anything. My future is assured provided god-willing my health remains, my beautiful family is beside me, my friends, there is nothing wrong with my future, mate. Don’t stress. Sleep easy tonight. I’ll be OK.

“... I don’t think my job is done here. I really feel like we are building something and what a trophy does is hopefully accelerate that. So, I still think there is work to be done. It is quite obvious with the challenges we’ve had this year, which I think are well chronicled but there is some reasoning in the context of that, but also there has been some growth and I would like to see through. Whether that happens or not is not that important right now, but I don’t think far from it is this job finished. I certainly feel there is some growth there that we can take this club to where it needs to be.”

The Europa League final is tomorrow at 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. BST. It is televised on CBS Sports Network and streamed on Paramount+, and televised on TNT Sports 1 in the United Kingdom.

Exciting news! 18-year old Croatian central defender Luka Vuskovic, who will join Tottenham Hotspur this summer from Hajduk Split, has been rewarded for his excellent season with his first ever call-up to the Croatian national team! Vuskovic will be part of the squad that will play Gibraltar and Czechia in June.

Former Tottenham players Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic are also in the squad because they are ageless football liches who through dark magic are still good at football despite ostensibly dying sometime in the 19th century.

Vuskovic has spent the season, along with Spurs academy player Alfie Devine, at Belgian first division club Westerlo, and he’s been an absolute rock in the back line. He has seven goals this season as a central defender and has already emerged as one of the top young defenders in world football. And he’s coming to Spurs next season because Tottenham reached an agreement to sign him when he turns 18 two seasons ago.

I have no idea whether Vuskovic will play or not. You’d like to think he’d get some minutes against Gibraltar at least, but who knows — and honestly just getting a call-up to a major European national team at age 18 is significant and laudatory. And if he does play, it will give Spurs fans who don’t have a line on how to watch Belgian league football an opportunity to watch him in action.

Congrats, Luka!

As the season winds down, the Tottenham Hotspur transfer rumors are heating up. And while we’re unlikely to get many indications of Spurs’ direction for the summer before the Europa League final, that’s not stopping a lot of publications from reporting on potential links to new players.

That said, Spurs’ hierarchy are certainly gaming out potential players based on the assumption that they’ll win on Wednesday and thus clinch Champions League football next season despite potentially finishing 17th in the league. Linking Spurs to Lille striker Jonathan David isn’t exactly rocket science — Spurs have been linked to the Canadian each of the past two summer windows — but L’Equipe is now reporting (paywalled, via SportWitness) that Tottenham are feeling out whether David would be interested in moving from France to North London. The other clubs mentioned as interested in David include Napoli, Juventus, and Aston Villa, as well as an unnamed “exotic club” offering him a “golden bridge” (o hai Saudi Arabia).

David let his contract at Lille wear down despite a lot of clubs interested in him over the past few windows, and is leaving the club on a free transfer this summer. This suggests that he’s after a huge wage package as befits one of the better strikers in the market. Tottenham are one of the clubs that can likely offer him a good wage package, and likely would need to. Villa’s interest makes them a compelling option, but they are running unsustainably in their wages to turnover ratio. If Spurs win on Wednesdsay, that makes them a compelling option and I think they could convince David to join, no matter who the manager is next season.

As a free transfer Jonathan David becomes an attractive option, especially if Spurs (as expected) try and move Richarlison on this summer. He can play wide or centrally, can drop deeper if needed, and has 25 goals and 12 assists in all competitions this season for Lille. He’d make a nice complement to Dominic Solanke up top and would provide solid depth and rotation, likely even challenging Dom for starts. The only question is whether he’d want to come, and we won’t know if we can be a compelling option until after Bilbao.

Surprise! Tottenham Hotspur are in a European final on Wednesday!

Not a surprise! Tottenham Hotspur’s squad is a televised medical drama in real time! Take that, The Pitt!

Ange Postecoglou must be tearing out what is left of his hair as he prepares for what is the biggest match for this club in the last couple of years, and potentially the biggest match of his career. That locomotive in the tunnel has begun to look an awful lot like a bullet train, as Spurs players continue to drop like flies with all manner of injuries rendering key squad members unavailable for the Europa League final.

Thanks to this uncertainty, Ange and his coaching team have likely had to plan, and replan, and plan again a huge number of contingencies and tactical approaches to try deliver a long-awaited trophy to the Tottenham Hotspur faithful.

With this in mind, here’s a few ways Ange Postecoglou could send out his team (or what’s left of it).

Option 1: The Ange (Part Deux)

It’s hard to know exactly what the injury situation is with the Spurs squad right now. It is possible Pape Matar Sarr no longer has a torso. It is also possible that Lucas Bergvall is indeed the Prince who was Promised and has made a miraculous comeback from his season-ending injury. It is also possible neither of these players are available. If one is though, I believe this is Ange’s preferred lineup. If both were fit, Lucas Bergvall likely would win the spot most weeks, but if he does somehow work his way back from injury, I’d say it would be more likely via the bench.

You’ll note I’ve indicated a 4-2-3-1 shape as well, rather than a 4-3-3. Though Ange could have the team fluidly switch between the two, in big matches in recent weeks, Ange has opted for more of a double pivot in midfield; this seems to suit both Bissouma and Bentancur better, making Spurs much harder to break down and providing more coverage in transition. It does mean Spurs struggle to progress through the middle, but Spurs’ options along the backline help somewhat in alleviating that option, with Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie able to pull defenses out of shape with their pace and running games, and Cristian Romero and Pedro Porro able to hit a wonderball from anywhere.

It is possible as well that Ange opts to make further changes in the forward line; he may have concerns as to Son’s fitness, Richarlison has been in good form and could come in for either Son or Solanke, and Mathys Tel or Wilson Odobert could offer a point of difference in place of Brennan Johnson. I believe though that Postecoglou values Solanke’s all-round game in the striker position, trusts Son’s fitness enough after his minutes in recent matches, and wants somebody who can find the net in Johnson. Maybe that will be enough?

What if neither Sarr, nor Bergvall are fit?

Option 2: The Mourinho

How better to win a final than to invoke the spirit of the man who has won a trophy at every club he has managed? Spurs, is the exception to that rule, of course... so wouldn’t there then be some sort of bizarre, poetic justice in a win engineered off the principals of Mourinho-ball?

With midfield options potentially thin on the ground, a robust double pivot and operating in transition could be the way to go. Dom Solanke’s holdup play is generally excellent, and having Son buzzing around him, as well as the runs of Richarlison and Johnson on the wings to exploit the space between Manchester United’s wingback and center back (or two of the center backs) could work wonders for Spurs.

Protecting the defense while embracing some of the improved skill Son has shown as a creator over the last season or so in a side lacking creators is not the worst idea in the world. Wilson Odobert has also looked exciting playing off the striker at times, so Ange could alternatively decide that Son is best utilized exploiting the wide areas while Odobert unleashes his trickery and dribbling to move Spurs up through the middle.

If Mourinho-ball is too bitter for your taste, though, perhaps consider...

Option 3: The Sherwood

Spurs need to win this match. And who knows more about winning than Tim Sherwood, the Spurs manager with the highest win percentage during his tenure managing the side? Only a managerial savant can come up with ideas such as playing Aaron Lennon as a #10, Kyle Walker as a winger, and Nacer Chadli in central midfield.

With that in mind, why not shift Pedro Porro into midfield?

The aggregators have jumped all over this online, saying that Ange said he is considering this approach; of course, that is largely engagement farming and not really the case at all. The comments in question stemmed from a journalist asking Ange a very leading question about trying Porro in the middle of the pitch, to which Ange responded, “I think it’s all in the realms [of possibility].”

Not exactly a glowing endorsement.

Bringing Porro centrally though could enable Spurs to more effectively progress the ball through the middle thanks to the Spaniard’s ability on the ball; and would also enable the Spurs midfield to outnumber Manchester United’s likely double pivot. It would though have the trade-off of effectively removing Porro’s long balls from deep (ahem), a quite fruitful way of unlocking the Spurs attack over the last little while, as well as bringing Djed Spence into the side, a player who hasn’t exactly been setting the pitch alight in recent weeks.

Too crazy for your liking? Well...

Option 4: The Conte

A lineup straight from the mind of the man who is such a winner, he couldn’t bear to stay with a loser club like Spurs. There’s no way we could ever achieve his lofty vision, that’s just how good he is! Why not then embrace his ideals?

The problem here is that Spurs have never really trained or played in this manner under Ange Postecoglou. This would be a huge change for the side; but it wouldn’t be without its benefits. A 3-4-3 would allow Spurs to go man-for-man with Ruben Amorim’s side. The Portuguese manager also prefers a 3-4-3, with the hallmarks of his play attacking via transition: patient, quick, short passing, drawing a defense out before bursting into quick vertical attacks. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it has a lot of similarities to Conte-ball; the differences largely being out of possession, with Amorim often liking to press aggressively rather than absorbing pressure.

United have though struggled themselves when pressed due to a distinct lack of technical ability in their squad (sound familiar again?), and a man-marking system could go some way to shutting down any buildup - particularly when you have Cristian Romero tracking (and clattering) Bruno Fernandes anywhere he goes.

Is it likely? No. Could it work? ...Maybe!

There you have it. Four wonderful ways this wonderful team could line up in order to deliver a wonder trophy on a wonderful night. This is football, and it’s not played on paper, so in some ways it doesn’t matter who Ange names; anything could happen!

I, for one, choose belief. This is Spurs’ time. COYS!

What am I supposed to say about this match? I really don’t know. Spurs rotated heavily, started a 17-year old kid, played decently well for a half, then conceded off a corner and a second one a few minutes later. There are injury questions hovering over Pape Sarr and Mikey Moore. Spurs can still win a European title.

I mean, that’s it. That’s all I got and that’s all that matters.

It’s time to rate the players. I guess.

Rate the players from 1⁄2 to 5 stars. If the player doesn’t deserve a rating due to minutes played, DO NOT RANK. I will round the stars up/down to the nearest half-star for the player ratings later this week.

We are just over a week away from the end of the Premier League season, which typically means a huge ramp up of pressure as placings for relegation and qualification for European football are finalized.

For Tottenham Hotspur though, it was just another Friday, with nothing to play for except pride and some semblance of form leading into Thursday’s Europa League final against Manchester United. That context set up an intriguing clash with Aston Villa, a side with everything to play for: sitting in sixth, and on the cusp of the Champions League places, and in need of the windfall that European qualification would provide.

Somewhat surprisingly, Ange Postecoglou wrapped the majority of his squad in cotton wool, naming what was very much a second-string side. Captain Son Heung-min made his first start following his injury lay-off as potentially the only nailed-on starter to feature in the XI and in need of match sharpness, with the likes of Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven not even in the squad. Aston Villa, on the other hand, named a side that was much closer to their best XI, as would be expected in their Champions League push.

Spurs lined up in a shape much more akin to a Jose Mourinho-esque 4-4-2, with Mathys Tel and Wilson Odobert playing through the middle and a very clear “two banks of four” structure keeping Villa from playing through the middle. There was also a distinct lack of a press, with Spurs sitting deep and looking to catch the Villains on the counter.

This led to a largely uneventful first half, as the Lilywhites sat off and Villa probed without much success. Spurs keeper Antonin Kinsky was forced into one very good save, as he palmed a Morgan Rogers flick-on past the post; and Spurs had a very exciting moment of their own as an extremely well-worked counter resulted in a heel flick from Odobert, only to be saved by Emi Martinez. If it had gone in, it would have potentially one of Spurs’ best goals this season. Instead, the ledger remained even at the close of the first half, with the only other moment of note a scuffle between Tel and Ezri Konsa as both teams started to get a bit heated.

Ange Postecoglou made a change early on in the second half which initially looked like minutes management, with Pape Matar Sarr replaced by Yves Bissouma, both likely features in the Europa League final. Unfortunately, maintaining fitness was seemingly not the cause for the substitution, as Sarr trudged down the tunnel accompanied by one of Spurs’ medical staff. Things then went from bad to worse as Villa opened the scoring: Ollie Watkins won the aerial battle for a corner kick, with his knock-down then flicked on past Kinsky by Konsa.

That lead was soon doubled. Spurs had been sitting off Villa all match but did so one time too many in a dangerous area as Boubacar Kamara found himself in acres of space at the top of Spurs’ 18-yard box. He rifled a shot past Kinsky as the Villa crowd began to allow themselves to dream of a return to the Champions League. For Spurs, though, things went from bad to worse as Mikey Moore was the next Tottenham player to go down, clutching at his leg and being subbed off. Late substitutions weren’t enough to get Spurs back into the match and Aston Villa cruised to a 2-0 win.

Reactions

In the battle before the battle, it was Tottenham Hotspur who scored a decisive win over Aston Villa, successfully lobbying the Premier League to move this fixture to Friday, providing a little more gap before next Wednesday’s Europa League final. Villa objected, which was in their right, but felt a little childish and wholly unnecessary.

That is because this outcome is never in doubt. Spurs are 100 percent focused on Bilbao, with Friday’s fixture solely serving as a tune-up (and obligation). Meanwhile, Villa are in the thick of the top-five race, level on points with Chelsea heading into the final two matches. I think both groups of supporters would be happy for Villa to take all three points here.

Aston Villa (t-5th, 63pts) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (17th, 37pts)

Date: Friday, May 16

Time: 2:30 pm ET, 7:30 pm UK

Location: Villa Park, Birmingham

TV: USA Network (US), Sky Sports Premier League (UK)

Were Spurs still actually playing for something in the league, this might oddly be seen as a favorable fixture despite the opposition’s quality. Tottenham had the famous 4-0 win last season at Villa Park and won the reverse fixture this year 4-1 behind goals from Brennan Johnson, Dominic Solanke (x2), and James Maddison. Villa did win in the FA Cup this February, though.

As mentioned, Villa is level on points with Chelsea for seemingly the final Champions League place. With matches against both Europa League finalists, the chance of all six points is pretty high, but goal difference means Chelsea will probably need to stumble. That will not happen against United on Friday, but the final day at Forest (who also is in contention) should be massive.

Weekly spotlight: Mate...

Look, I know the first-choice players were not going to sit against both Palace and Villa, and I even used this space last week to talk through the options, but it was extremely frustrating to see Dejan Kulusevski pick up a knock and leave him out for Spurs’ most important match in years. With no James Maddison and Lucas Bergvall already, the dynamic attacker’s absence is even more painful.

That means Ange Postecoglou has zero margin for error health-wise on Friday. I know that some of the preferred XI is going to see the pitch, but their leashes have to be astronomically short. It is also the manager’s job to instruct and advise them to take as much caution as possible; for all intents and purposes, this match is no more meaningful than a friendly. Tone it down.

With all eyes on Italy this past week (because of the Rome Masters), I thought it’d be a good time to check in on what’s going on in Serie B. Here’s what we’ve got —-

Sampdoria has fallen further into the abyss.

The 1991 Scudetto winners were relegated from Serie B on Saturday, marking the first time in the club’s history that they will compete in Serie C.

It’s a further fall from grace for the Genoan club, which was Harry Winks’ loanee club during the 2022-23 season.

This was a disastrous season for Sampdoria. The club brought in Andrea Pirlo as a key part of their project. He was sacked three games into the season after failing to secure promotion last year. They went through a few more managers after that, only to finish 18th in the league.

It’s an even tougher road for Sampdoria from here.

Serie C is composed of 60 clubs in three different tables: North, Centre and South.

Only the top team from each table gets automatic promotion to Serie B (after a 38-game season). An additional 28 teams compete to achieve the final promotion spot for Serie B. It lasts a total of six rounds.

It looks like an absolutely miserable time. There are some interesting clubs here too: Crotone, Benevento, Pescara and SPAL.

We’re only in the second round of the playoffs, which begin this weekend. Here are the remaining clubs competing for the final spot to Serie B: Crotone, Vicenza, Giana Erminio, Ternana, Atalanta U23, Audace Cerignola, Vis Pesaro and Pescara.

And now for a quick Rome Masters recap: Because you all asked for it, we need to check in on the latest tennis scores. The Rome Masters is the last big tournament before Roland Garros (don’t worry, we’ll preview that soon), and players are going to be itching to get into form before hitting the famed red clay.

Men’s singles: Jannik Sinner decimated Madrid Masters champion Casper Ruud upon returning to the tour after serving his three-month ban. It’s hard not to see how Sinner won’t be entering RG as the odds-on favourite to win. But keep an eye on the Italian one-handed wonder in Lorenzo Mussetti, who’s already claimed four top-10 wins on clay this season.

Women’s singles: Aryna Sabalenka is out. Coco Gauff is cementing her position as the World No. 2, but will face a difficult test against last year’s French Open runner-up Jasmine Paolini. It’ll be an even more difficult task playing against the hometown favourite in front of the Italian crowd.

Fitzie’s track of the day: I Miss That Feeling, by Tennis

And now for your links:

Alasdair Gold: “Ange Postecoglou won’t rule out radical Pedro Porro move amid Tottenham problems”

Dan KP: “Ange Postecoglou hints at ‘creative’ solution to injury crisis ahead of Europa League final”

ESPN: “Barcelona clinch LaLiga title, domestic treble with win at Espanyol”

Editor’s note: This article came from a conversation with a few other Spurs fans in a private Tottenham Hotspur Discord channel. The upcoming Europa League final between Tottenham and Manchester United is a MASSIVE match from a financial perspective, with the winner getting Champions League football next season and potentially netting as much as £100m when all is said and done. The initial idea came from Joel Wortheimer, who wondered, considering the vast amount of money at stake, whether the two clubs would ever consider coming together to make a mutually beneficial hedge that would lower the winners’ overall haul, but also make sure that the loser doesn’t necessarily walk away empty handed.

It’s a fascinating idea, and Discord member/Carty Free lurker DanielR1983, who works in finance, pitched it to me and said he wanted to write it up as an article on Carty Free. I agreed as I thought it would provoke some fun discussion. This piece is the result. Hope you enjoy it.

Let’s talk about the finances of this Europa league final. As a way of a quick introduction. I’m a finance guy. I became a Spurs fan when I was an MBA intern at an investment bank in London helping big multinational corporations manage their credit risk. As a big sports guy, I figured I had to have a team, and well, here we are.

It’s been a general trend over recent years for football guys to try and moonlight as finance guys. You would think I would love that, but actually I don’t. I think it’s horrible. It takes away from the fun of football games and tends to focus on the worse parts of finance (the accounting). Getting sucked into PSR rabbit holes, and wondering if you should sell the club’s best ever striker or your 23 year winger who leads the team in scoring is just generally not much fun at all.

However, a European final worth potentially £100m to both United and Spurs? That’s the stuff finance guys dreams are made of. So, let’s talk about what Spurs (and United) should do financially in this situation.

To me one of the cool things about finance are the stories it tells, and how creative it can get. So, let’s start by imagining we are in an Iowa cornfield in 1848.

Yeah, really. Stay with me here.

Close your eyes and imagine you’re an Iowa farmer. You’ve just come out of an awful, no-good year. Your two best farm hands who you depend on for everything pulled a hammy a month into the planting season. As a result you had to deputize your 18-year-old son (who you have high hopes for), and an unproven guy from across town to keep the train on the tracks... and well that didn’t happen.

The train fell off the tracks, rolled into a ditch and then burst on fire.

Maybe you should have seen that coming, but you didn’t. So here you are: struggling to get by, with nothing going right. Every day everyone tells you to give it up, it’s not been good enough. There’s no way you’re going to get a good crop this year. Nevertheless, you keep grinding it out as best you can and get everything planted.

You and your spouse sit down and look at the ol’ handy farmers almanac and realize that you’re looking at an unprecedented favorable outlook for rain. You also get news that a few of the big farms down the road have had equally bad years, so you think maybe, somehow the corn will go for a good price. If the rain actually hits, and you actually got the seeds in the ground you might somehow, someway, despite everything that happened, be able to pull out with a windfall that might save the farm.

Before long, you get word that your rivals down the road actually might have figured things out too. This would be calamitous as two big harvests mean the price of corn will drop and you’ll lose your shirt. You’ll have to let those farm hands go. You might even be forced to sell your best Rolls Royce plow to keep food on the table next year.

So what do you do? Do you sit there hoping for the best in a year when everything has gone wrong? No, of course not.

Instead, you take the train up to Chicago with a few of the other farmers who had a bad year. You gather up as many of the corn buyers in the big city as you can and you give them this pitch:

“Hey, it’s been a rough year for all of us. If things go how they’ve been going you’re looking at paying $200 a bushel of corn which we know would be bad for you. So how about we just agree here and now for you to buy all the corn you can for $75. You get a decent if not great price, and we get a little peace of mind that we won’t go out of business”.

The buyers, not wanting to take the risk, eagerly agree. In fact, they say This is such a good idea! We should do this all the time!

Congratulations! You just invented the modern financial market.

Spurs and United now find themselves in a similar situation: locked into a one game European final match that can either save their season, or lead to financial ruin. Both teams have had awful, no good years. Both teams have owners who have warned of the implications of failing to get the revenue associated with winning the Europa league. Both teams, like those farmers and Iowa can’t sit back and just hope for the best.

You can’t hope Maddison’s knee holds out [Ed: this was written before Maddison and Deki actually blew their knees out]. You should know better. Does Brennan have a few more tap-ins in him? Probably? But maybe not?

You gotta make a deal. You need to implement a hedge.

So what can that look like? Here’s some ideas:

Option 1: The Paratici Special™.

Offsetting options: United agree to an option to buy Dane Scarlett for £45m. This option becomes mandatory if United win the Europa league.

At the same time, Tottenham would agree to an option to buy… whoever might be a good squad player from United for £45m pounds. This option becomes mandatory if Tottenham win the Europa league.

If either team wins Europa, they get Champions League football and the windfall that comes with it. Sure, with the hedge that team may overpay for a prospect who may or may not come good, but who cares – Champions League, baby!

And the losing team? Well they get to sell a prospect for a really, really good fee. You’re not out of the woods totally, but at least you don’t have to sell your best plow. You hold on to your guys, and go again with one game a week the following season. You live to fight another day.

Option 2: The Harry Kane Special, aka the Gentleman’s Agreement™.

You’re probably thinking all of this is counter to the sporting integrity of the game. But what if I told you that in fact there’s already a precedent in English football?

In 2002, Birmingham City and Norwich came to a “gentlemen’s agreement” which said the loser of the match would be able to keep the gate receipts for the Championship play-off final. The winner got to promote to the Premier League, and the loser got a decent boost of cash from playing a final at Wembley.

This tradition has been repeated enough times that many people believe it to be an official policy. It’s not though – it’s just two teams coming together to make prudent financial decisions for the sustainability of their clubs.

The potential revenue for Champions League goes far beyond the amount of gate receipts you’d get from the one match. So to really hedge your bets you’d need to do something more substantial. Here’s what a potential package could look like:

Loser keeps the prize money or the Europa league final: ~£10.9m

Teams agree to split gate receipts for their respective European campaigns for the next year: ~£10m+.

Teams agree to a series of team friendlies with the Europa League runner up keeps the gate receipts: ~£5m+.

At the end of the day, there’s no real reason for United and Spurs to sit there and just wait and see who has the worse luck. This allows both teams to stave off the consequences of their no good, rotten, horrible seasons (just please don’t let United ask Harry Kane what he thinks about Daniel Levy and “gentleman’s agreements,” that could go poorly).

The main point is that if we’re going to force ourselves to learn financial models to enjoy football we might as well do the fun and cool stuff rather than the skullduggery of “amortization” or “depreciation”.

Also, we really really can’t afford to sell Romero, and we really really could use another #10 next year.